Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[> mark]

11 minutes ago, Chris K said:

At least your office has AC - I am in a large building designed with the lovely glass ceilings so essentially 3000 staff, with computers, inside a giant greenhouse. Grim.  Our mercury thermometer says it is 35 degrees in here.

But I feel more sorry for those working outside in the sun!!

It also makes me sick I won't be seeing any storms to wave the heat goodbye.

Yuk!! Sounds a really nice place to be ...... not!

I gave up on heat many years ago. This type of weather always gave rise to field fires and I have to say, I dreaded field fires more than anything else! Due to appliances being burnt on previous occasions, we were not allowed to drive onto unburnt areas. So middle of the day, in this type of weather, full PPE including helmets and no hose-reels ...... our firefighting equipment was literally poles with old hose attached and the beating began! Way too hot!!!!

Though doing that job did show how destructive lightning can be. We attended quite a few lightning strikes but the one that I recall the most was a shout to a tree on fire in the middle of nowhere. When we booked in attendance, there was less than half a tree left, split about 5ft from the ground and on fire!!

Still praying for a storm tho :-)

[Gael_Force]

8 minutes ago, Davethedog said:

Is there anywhere where we can find legit, measured soundings for free? I know you can get GFS modelled ones everywhere, but if GFS is overblowing the CAPE, the calculated soundings will have the same issue. 

There's a latest soundings page on Meteociel.

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/sondage.php?map=1

 

[Had Worse]

Had medium wave on radio with no station, there were two discharge crackles in the space of 3 minutes around 20 minutes ago yet I cant see any history on the lightning map.

 

[Pat Butcher]

After a brief shower, the sun has broken through the clouds here, there's some Altocumulus Castellanus* popping out and the whole scene looks tastier than a doner kebab after a lock-in.

*I am not William Grimsley in disguise, I promise.

[NUT]

The cloud's not quite managed to break up here in the lowlands yet (if we do avoid any showers wouldn't be the first time we've been unlucky and missed everything)

[VillagePlank]

2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Had medium wave on radio with no station, there were two discharge crackles in the space of 3 minutes around 20 minutes ago yet I cant see any history on the lightning map.

 

Yes, it's all gone a little quite. All waiting for the cap to break, the longer it holds off during prime heating hours, the better it will be - if you like this sort of thing, of course. 

[weirpig]

Just hit dp of 20 here in dudley currently 29.7c   Expect to reach over 30c in the next hour . Then?? Who knows 

[StormChaseUK]

5 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Had medium wave on radio with no station, there were two discharge crackles in the space of 3 minutes around 20 minutes ago yet I cant see any history on the lightning map.

 

Could be the storms off West Wales.

[toggerob]

First inland storm beginning to materialise over Machynlleth, looking for signs of outflow from this now which will erode the cap upstream of it.

[Derecho]

Gotta love the anticipation on this thread .

Good luck to all of you to my north in your search for storms !

[StormChaseUK]

Tension in the Atmosphere

[Had Worse]

Just now, StormChaseUK said:

Could be the storms off West Wales.

I was thinking that but if you run the radar, at around 14.00 there is a red blob in the precip around Sheffield.  I'll be hoset that we have had lightning in the past around the Peak district and it has failed to register on Blitzorg or Lightning maps so I suspect that could be the case here.  The crackles where loud and I only get that if the storm is within around 15 miles.

[VillagePlank]

Here's what the West Midlands is waiting for:

Note the ridge of high theta-e air moving in from the Irish Sea. Theta-e has some interesting properties so that a ridge of it (like shown above) can (and often does) show the area in situations like today where a convection burst is likely, and, in any case, high values tend to mean very high levels of instability

[Harsh Climate]

Feels very cool at 20c here compared  to recent days. Wouldn't it be ironic If I experienced amazing storms later after a lovely refreshing coolish day whilst those scorching in 30c+ temps don't see anything .

[cheese]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Feels very cool at 20c here compared  to recent days. Wouldn't it be ironic If I experienced amazing storms later after a lovely refreshing coolish day whilst those scorching in 30c+ temps don't see anything .

Temp is rocketing here, 24C with a dew point of 19C. Amazing what a little bit of sun does..

[joggs]

26 here in Bingley  Harsh.

Edit,Cheese beat me to it lol.

Edited June 21, 2017 by joggs

[VillagePlank]

6 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

Here's what the West Midlands is waiting for:

Note the ridge of high theta-e air moving in from the Irish Sea. Theta-e has some interesting properties so that a ridge of it (like shown above) can (and often does) show the area in situations like today where a convection burst is likely, and, in any case, high values tend to mean very high levels of instability

If you look at the high theta-e values (last one at 6pm) in my previous post, and compare that to the high theta-w values in this one, where they overlap is the most likely place to observe thunderstorms this evening. Possibility of an outside chance of Isle of Wight seeing some action, too, but a low probability nevertheless, and you can see the reason why the MetO are suggesting more action tomorrow for SW England.

Edited June 21, 2017 by VillagePlank

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Kicking off again in Wales. Cambrian mountains may well give good orographical lifting of this development in the next 20 mins. 

[P-M]

1 minute ago, VillagePlank said:

If you look at the high theta-e values in my previous post, and compare that to the high theta-w values in this one, where they overlap is the most likely place to observe thunderstorms this evening. Possibility of an outside chance of Isle of Wight seeing some action, too, but a low probability nevertheless.

Would you be able to perhaps mark them on the map or give locations as I am lost with these?  Not being funny at all I am just not the best with charts or comparing so it would be interesting to see.

[MartinD]

31.7c here in Worcester, the sky is a little milky now and very, very humid but quite a warm breeze is picking up.

 

[Harsh Climate]

6 minutes ago, cheese said:

Temp is rocketing here, 24C with a dew point of 19C. Amazing what a little bit of sun does..

 

Yeah temperature is probably a bit higher now, I just go on lba temperature as not too far away.   Yeah sun just coming out now, don't remember a day with such great potential for our region! Normally on days like today constant cloudcover and greyness inhibs our chances but, sun has finally broke through so shouldn't be the case this time.

Edited June 21, 2017 by Harsh Climate

[Chris.R]

Make it stop!

28.2°C, DP 19.3°C. 

[> mark]

Temperature has rocketed to 29oC and ~55%RH in the last hour or so. Sky has been hazy all day but the sun is shining, again! ........ melting!!

[Supacell]

I have been looking through the hi-res models for today across Europe and the one that seems to have the precipitation correct so far is the DWD ICON model. If this model is correct then the best chance looks to be the Pennines and east into Yorkshire this evening. Just one model though, and they are all showing different.

[NL]

48 minutes ago, P-M said:

I think it's gonna be a dud for the NE there's just too much cloud cover.  Happy to be corrected however!

The surface winds are now veering from a SE direction to a S/SSW so this low cloud dragged in from the North sea should thin and disperse. Still there is a sky full of cirrus (thin in parts which) which is pegging back temperatures so the potential severe storms may not materialise here in the North East. Still early and storms aren't progged for this area until 6pm onwards anyway.