Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[TJS1998Tom]

Does anyone know the likliest times that Lincoln might get any storms today?

[Sparkiee storm]

2 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Does anyone know the likliest times that Lincoln might get any storms today?

Looks like the most likely time for your area is from late afternoon into the evening @TJS1998Tom

[TJS1998Tom]

Just now, Sparkiee storm said:

Looks like the most likely time for your area is from late afternoon into the evening @TJS1998Tom

Thanks, as I get back home at 5pm from the cinemas so I dont want to be inside missing it all lol

[Boro Snow]

Just watched the latest BBC weather forecast which is very underwhelming

Edited June 21, 2017 by Boro Snow

[P-M]

Nice little storm south of Edinburgh there on the lightning map..

[P-M]

1 minute ago, Boro Snow said:

Just watched the latest BBC weather forecast which is very underwhelming

 

 

It always is - I wouldn't take much notice of it to be fair.  They can't say for definite what's going to kick off as there's many conditions at play today.

[Sparkiee storm]

1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Thanks, as I get back home at 5pm from the cinemas so I dont want to be inside missing it all lol

Yeah, but I wouldn't get my hopes up too much, because I have a feeling they will be very isolated.

[P-M]

Thankfully after this lump of thundery rain clears from the NE quarter of the UK, the sun is likely to come out.  Nothing behind the band so fingers crossed.

[RichmondWeather]

2 minutes ago, P-M said:

 

 

It always is - I wouldn't take much notice of it to be fair.  They can't say for definite what's going to kick off as there's many conditions at play today.

The fact that they said thunderstorm rather than thundery showers yesterday must be a rare occurance

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

Just watched the latest BBC weather forecast which is very underwhelming

It looked good for north Wales, Merseyside, Greater Manchester area from late afternoon, with the activity then slowly transferring eastwards.

[Nick L]

20 minutes ago, karyo said:

It looked good for north Wales, Merseyside, Greater Manchester area from late afternoon, with the activity then slowly transferring eastwards.

Sounds about right.

[Summer Sun]

Today's met office yellow warning

Rain over northern England early on Wednesday may locally lead to 20 mm or 30 mm of rain falling in one or two hours. Thunderstorms developing from late Wednesday afternoon bring a greater threat of severe weather with associated torrential downpours giving as much as 30 mm or even possibly 40 mm in an hour in places. Note that areas of severe weather are not expected to occur at the same time across the whole warning area. Instead, the threat of heavy rain and thunder is initially confined to parts of northern England before the threat of severe weather becomes more extensive late Wednesday.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=wm&date=2017-06-21&regionType=area

[Norfolk Sheep]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Today's met office yellow warning

Rain over northern England early on Wednesday may locally lead to 20 mm or 30 mm of rain falling in one or two hours. Thunderstorms developing from late Wednesday afternoon bring a greater threat of severe weather with associated torrential downpours giving as much as 30 mm or even possibly 40 mm in an hour in places. Note that areas of severe weather are not expected to occur at the same time across the whole warning area. Instead, the threat of heavy rain and thunder is initially confined to parts of northern England before the threat of severe weather becomes more extensive late Wednesday.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=wm&date=2017-06-21&regionType=area

No warnings for the east of England at all - only a mention of "thundery showers" so beloved by Look East on the BBC!

[P-M]

This is from UK Weather Scientific who used to be Met Monkey I think? What are thoughts on this? 

DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM STATEMENT for Wednesday 21st June 2017 from 15:00 until 06.00am Thursday 22nd for the potential of dangerous supercells. 

There is a risk of dangerous supercells developing today across Northern England, North East England (Newcastle) and surrounding areas with a slightly lower risk for the Midlands.  The situation is highly complex and a little uncertain due to the number of potential limiting factors however it is expected that a few supercell thunderstorms exhibiting rotation will form later this evening (dependant on heat and trigger locally).

Thunderstorms that develop in conditions present today will be capable of producing large or very large damaging hail, damaging straight line winds and moderate strength tornadoes, not too dissimilar to those that form in the states. In addition usual severe characteristics typical with storms such as frequent lightning and flash flooding will be observed. 

Severe thunderstorms are also possible across the N Midlands and into E Anglia although the threat is more uncertain and isolated due to the presence of upper ridging drying out the vertical profile. Nevertheless any storm that does manage to fire will most certainly become severe and dangerous. 

It must be stressed that any storm that does develop today will need extremely close monitoring and we advise the public to be very weather aware and on high alert. The main risk is considered to be later this afternoon with focus more on the evening when heat and cap breaking is most probable. Please share this post with as many people as possible and rest assured through the day further updates will be provided. A potentially dangerous day of weather locally. As is always the case with set ups like these many places will remain dry or could miss the core of any storms but regardless the violent nature of today's storm potential warrants utmost vigilance and awareness. Stay aware and stay safe.

 

[Nick L]

8 minutes ago, P-M said:

This is from UK Weather Scientific who used to be Met Monkey I think? What are thoughts on this? 

DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM STATEMENT for Wednesday 21st June 2017 from 15:00 until 06.00am Thursday 22nd for the potential of dangerous supercells. 

There is a risk of dangerous supercells developing today across Northern England, North East England (Newcastle) and surrounding areas with a slightly lower risk for the Midlands.  The situation is highly complex and a little uncertain due to the number of potential limiting factors however it is expected that a few supercell thunderstorms exhibiting rotation will form later this evening (dependant on heat and trigger locally).

Thunderstorms that develop in conditions present today will be capable of producing large or very large damaging hail, damaging straight line winds and moderate strength tornadoes, not too dissimilar to those that form in the states. In addition usual severe characteristics typical with storms such as frequent lightning and flash flooding will be observed. 

Severe thunderstorms are also possible across the N Midlands and into E Anglia although the threat is more uncertain and isolated due to the presence of upper ridging drying out the vertical profile. Nevertheless any storm that does manage to fire will most certainly become severe and dangerous. 

It must be stressed that any storm that does develop today will need extremely close monitoring and we advise the public to be very weather aware and on high alert. The main risk is considered to be later this afternoon with focus more on the evening when heat and cap breaking is most probable. Please share this post with as many people as possible and rest assured through the day further updates will be provided. A potentially dangerous day of weather locally. As is always the case with set ups like these many places will remain dry or could miss the core of any storms but regardless the violent nature of today's storm potential warrants utmost vigilance and awareness. Stay aware and stay safe.

 

Way too alarmist for my liking. Express-style clickbait.

[Supacell]

10 minutes ago, P-M said:

This is from UK Weather Scientific who used to be Met Monkey I think? What are thoughts on this? 

DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM STATEMENT for Wednesday 21st June 2017 from 15:00 until 06.00am Thursday 22nd for the potential of dangerous supercells. 

There is a risk of dangerous supercells developing today across Northern England, North East England (Newcastle) and surrounding areas with a slightly lower risk for the Midlands.  The situation is highly complex and a little uncertain due to the number of potential limiting factors however it is expected that a few supercell thunderstorms exhibiting rotation will form later this evening (dependant on heat and trigger locally).

Thunderstorms that develop in conditions present today will be capable of producing large or very large damaging hail, damaging straight line winds and moderate strength tornadoes, not too dissimilar to those that form in the states. In addition usual severe characteristics typical with storms such as frequent lightning and flash flooding will be observed. 

Severe thunderstorms are also possible across the N Midlands and into E Anglia although the threat is more uncertain and isolated due to the presence of upper ridging drying out the vertical profile. Nevertheless any storm that does manage to fire will most certainly become severe and dangerous. 

It must be stressed that any storm that does develop today will need extremely close monitoring and we advise the public to be very weather aware and on high alert. The main risk is considered to be later this afternoon with focus more on the evening when heat and cap breaking is most probable. Please share this post with as many people as possible and rest assured through the day further updates will be provided. A potentially dangerous day of weather locally. As is always the case with set ups like these many places will remain dry or could miss the core of any storms but regardless the violent nature of today's storm potential warrants utmost vigilance and awareness. Stay aware and stay safe.

 

Hmm, I think they have a good handle on the area most likely to be affected but the bit in bold is a bit over the top. That is not to say there will not be severe weather but we are not the Mid West of America.

Edited June 21, 2017 by Supacell

[Nick L]

"Any storm that manages to fire will most certainly become severe and dangerous" - The only dangerous thing is putting out rubbish like that.

[P-M]

I agree all - I didn't want to say though as not that experienced!

[Supacell]

11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

"Any storm that manages to fire will most certainly become severe and dangerous" - The only dangerous thing is putting out rubbish like that.

Agreed. It should read that any storm that manages to fire has the potential to become severe. Disappointing as I always used to take notice of Met Monkey's forecasts.

Edited June 21, 2017 by Supacell

[Mapantz]

I disagree with the criticism of Keithy Joe. Estofex practically say the same thing. Very large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes. If that isn't severe and dangerous, then I'm missing the trick.

[Supacell]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I disagree with the criticism of Keithy Joe. Estofex practically say the same thing. Very large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes. If that isn't severe and dangerous, then I'm missing the trick.

It's just a bit OTT. Yes a risk of very large hail, damaging gusts and tornadoes is dangerous, but to say that a tornado not unlike those in the States is just being a bit silly in my opinion. He is definitely right to highlight the risk of severe storms, but not every storm that forms "will most certainly" become dangerous and severe.

[Nick L]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I disagree with the criticism of Keithy Joe. Estofex practically say the same thing. Very large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes. If that isn't severe and dangerous, then I'm missing the trick.

To basically say that any storm that develops will be dangerous is irresponsible.

And yes, the "moderate tornadoes similar to the states" is even more ridiculous. There will be the threat of tornadoes, but a moderate (~EF2) tornado is going way too far.

Edited June 21, 2017 by Nick L

[P-M]

10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I disagree with the criticism of Keithy Joe. Estofex practically say the same thing. Very large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes. If that isn't severe and dangerous, then I'm missing the trick.

I like his forecasting usually and to be fair he's an accurate forecaster that's not in doubt.  It just sounds really scary what he's written.  Who knows perhaps he will be right, but from my perspective I don't doubt his ability to forecast at all he's well established as being correct a lot of the time.  The write up really is something to behold though this morning that's all.

[TJS1998Tom]

06z

[doctor32]

Updated yellow warning from met office indicates risk of severe thunderstorms for some...

Yellow warning details

Rain

Between 10:55 Wed 21st and 02:00 Thu 22nd

Further spells of rain, heavy and thundery at times, will affect parts of southern Scotland and northern England through the rest of Wednesday and into early Thursday. There is a risk of more severe thunderstorms breaking out over parts of the Midlands, northern England and north Wales from late Wednesday afternoon onwards into Wednesday night, leading to torrential downpours, frequent lightning, very large hail and strong gusts of wind. This could result in some disruption, more likely from late Wednesday afternoon, which may include sudden localised flooding of transport routes, homes and businesses. Frequent lightning in association with the heaviest rain may also temporarily disrupt power supplies, whilst damage from large hail could occur on a very localised scale. However, many places will likely miss the worst of the storms and see little or no impact