Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Rob Walker]

33 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I have a funny instinct that we could see some active thunderstorms very early tomorrow morning. 

These charts here just shout activity for me for us Southerners.

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/ani.html?0,gfs_,_eur21.png,cape,mucape,icape,layer,lfc,mulfc,el,icon10,omega,pvort,pvort2,difadv,kili,spout,lapse,lapse2,the700,thetae,mixr,mtv,gusts,stp,srh,srhl,pw,hail

I would be inclined to agree; but I'm no expert  
I've seen 11am storms a couple of times before in Salisbury, not intense but nice to see nevertheless; and cleared away any haze for a beautiful afternoon .

[MattTarrant]

Just now, Weatherman662 said:

Storms will probably form over here and then travel to the moderate risk areas 

There are meant to be several areas of initiation linked with the varying features of the setup. 

[Woldsedge]

I know they say it's " too cold to snow", but I think it's too cold to storm here. Only 16c today and not had a rumble yet this year. :-(

[Allseasons-Si]

Those of you that are stormstarved,head over to here

Bill Kessler or Eugene Thieszen is on a cell producing frequent lightning

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase/

Edited June 20, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Cheshire Freeze]

In my years of model watching, I have never ever seen UK CAPE and LI values showing this at 24 hrs out

I know these parameters mean little in isolation but my word, if something does initiate it'll have untold amounts of energy to draw from

[Weatherman662]

Cape+LI still look impressive for the majority of England+Scotland on the GFS 18z. Though has moved west slightly. Shame about the cap .

Edited June 20, 2017 by Weatherman662

[Mesoscale]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

In my years of model watching, I have never ever seen UK CAPE and LI values showing this at 24 hrs out

I know these parameters mean little in isolation but my word, if something does initiate it'll have untold amounts of energy to draw from

Under -11 LI and nothing to trigger them  I am having 2012 flashbacks, stuck under clear blue skies with temps in the low 30s. 

Edited June 20, 2017 by Mesoscale

[MattTarrant]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

In my years of model watching, I have never ever seen UK CAPE and LI values showing this at 24 hrs out

I know these parameters mean little in isolation but my word, if something does initiate it'll have untold amounts of energy to draw from

Not to burst your bubble, however, as Dan mentioned in his convective forecast,  he believes that the GFS is over predicting Dew Point temperatures by 3/4 degrees. Thus over predicting CAPE values. The various convective forecasts are mentioning 2000 to 2500 (Still a lot). 

[Mapantz]

A nice little animation of the AROME's take on CAPE values for tomorrow:

[Ben Sainsbury]

Not only that but GFS gives us another potential thunderstorm event on Thursday too.

[Tempest]

Cloudy and much cooler here now. 13.3 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

15C but feels about 22C with the humidity. Praying for those down south with the heat tonight. 

Anyone know approximately when storms will break out in Scotland? I'm not sure what time to wake up for them. 

[toggerob]

Met Office forecast has the storms breaking out a good 9 hours ahead of the models predictions, past the highest CAPE values with initiation at 10pm, whilst everywhere else it's looking like initiation begins around 1pm. I was assuming this was a afternoon event?

[Martin Auld]

I don't know what to expect from this event at all. Everything about it just seems so uncertain

[StormChaseUK]

For those feeling downhearted, check out this video from Ireland in last few mins 

 

Edited June 20, 2017 by StormChaseUK

[toggerob]

Gav has a good video up (posted 5hr ago) on tomorrow's potential, and the chart analysis.

 

[TJS1998Tom]

1 hour ago, StormChaseUK said:

For those feeling downhearted, check out this video from Ireland in last few mins 

 

Hopefully we'll see scenes like that Wednesday night

[Chris.R]

Increasing sferics north of Lancaster. 

[Weather-history]

Well its happening now across the northern parts of England. a poky cell developed near Lancaster.

Altocumulus castellanus clouds around here

[The PIT]

Temps a lot lower than by a good 5c and feeling quite fresh here.  Local forecast still saying dry yet with a warning for heavy rain. Doh.

[Ross B]

Just been woken by a thunderstorm in Durham! Worst of it looks like it's passing to the north on radar. 

 

Met office text forecast is also pretty good! 

 

Today:

Warmer and feeling humid with some thundery showers possible through the morning. Probably drier for a time through the early afternoon with sunny spells, before a further risk of thunderstorms developing again from late afternoon, these potentially severe. Maximum Temperature 23 °C.

Edited June 21, 2017 by Ross B

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Again looks very un inspiring this morning. The storms currently up north are the first thing this week to have more than 2 high res models predict something in that area. 

A massive blanket of cloud also this morning rubbing salt in the wound. 

Called blank Monday and Tuesday, while I think today has the higher possibility, I think many will be disappointed come later today. It's just not the right setup for storms. 

Again, you can have the best look charts in the world, but if you can't get any ignition to fire up the storms then it's wasted. PLUS I don't think some realise that if a storm does bed itself within that kind of atmosphere and manages to break through, it would potentially be life threatening with that kind of energy to tap into. A very rare and unprepared thing to have in this country. Although would be quite spectacular though if anything occurs that is of course if you are a storm nut. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

24 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Again looks very un inspiring this morning. The storms currently up north are the first thing this week to have more than 2 high res models predict something in that area. 

A massive blanket of cloud also this morning rubbing salt in the wound. 

Called blank Monday and Tuesday, while I think today has the higher possibility, I think many will be disappointed come later today. It's just not the right setup for storms. 

Again, you can have the best look charts in the world, but if you can't get any ignition to fire up the storms then it's wasted. PLUS I don't think some realise that if a storm does bed itself within that kind of atmosphere and manages to break through, it would potentially be life threatening with that kind of energy to tap into. A very rare and unprepared thing to have in this country. Although would be quite spectacular though if anything occurs that is of course if you are a storm nut. 

And what's wrong with a life threatening storm or two? 

[P-M]

Just awoken by window rattling thunder and torrential rain. Lurvely! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

6 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

And what's wrong with a life threatening storm or two? 

I think the surprise element more than anything. Given that if something does pop it will take 10-20 minutes or so to form into something with lightning if it can get its act together