Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
7 minutes ago, Convective said:

Satellite imagery showing a band of ACCAS over the Gloucestershire area. Maybe a good sign as the instability aloft begins to get some use.

It isn't much, but certainly some clouds starting to develop to my East (I live close to Gloucestershire/S Glos border). Was clear blue sky only 30 mins ago. I guess later we will see if the cap can be broken.

20170620_135627.thumb.jpg.a6d7fc95eb524d1ba5c3b040a895c861.jpg

Met office rainfall forecasts showing very isolated showers around 4-5pm. 

Edited by Chris K
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
32 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I know most are aware of this but to avoid the usual toy throwing from a minority, being in a warning area does not guarantee you are going to see storms. You could personally see nothing, but the warning is spot on because some places did.

nope but it's nice to be under one.:D

Got a nice breeze getting up. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
1 minute ago, Dami said:

nope but it's nice to be under one.:D

Got a nice breeze getting up. 

Just trying to ease our inevitable clean up operation on here through the course of tomorrow :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Not sure what to do here. Thinking of getting up in the early hours. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Just now, Chris.R said:

 Not sure what to do here. Thinking of getting up in the early hours. 

If a storm is worth it, it will wake you up :D

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
2 hours ago, Nick L said:

While the wind profiles look reasonable initially tomorrow and early afternoon (i.e. backed at the surface) they seem to lose this through the afternoon, this is why I'm personally hesitant to go too gung-ho with supercell/tornadic forecasts. Birmingham for example at midday tomorrow has reasonable directional shear with backed surface flow:

skew0.941143731194646.png

But this gets lost through the afternoon. This is based on the GFS, going to try and produce some soundings from the EC this afternoon.

The forecast SkewT shown shows unidirectional but increasing wind strength with height above 700hpa. A turning of the wind with height as well as increasing wind speed with height is traditional associated with super cells. So this probably would not classify as a classic super cell environment.

However increasing wind speed with height does suggest seperation between updraft and downdraft. This tends to mean storms which develop can be longer lasting. If instability is strong  (high CAPE) then a rear downdraft can be quite strong and affect the low level wind flow. Effectively you get a winds blowing outwards at the back of a storm before circling back into the south of the storm into the indraft. The forecast SkewT will probably not show any localized effects of a large storm. Its also possible for storms to split or form at the edges of outflows in high instability regions which alter the dynamics.

I do agree in principle that the low level wind vorticity weakens and limits supercell / tornadic development. I am still hesitant about whether there will be any storm let alone a supercell or tornado due to the CAP. Met Office unlikely warning seems about right, so I would agree with you.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
1 minute ago, Nick L said:

If a storm is worth it, it will wake you up :D

 The best bit for me is the anticipation and the time just before one comes.  Just not sure if I'm far enough North for tonight's elevated stuff. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

As a matter of fact the Netwx SR charts are in line with current Sat24 observations. With a shower forming in SE Wales/Glos where current AC is building.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
11 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

As a matter of fact the Netwx SR charts are in line with current Sat24 observations. With a shower forming in SE Wales/Glos where current AC is building.

Some areas your way are reporting DP's in excess of 20-21c! Must feel Florida hot down there! Any storms that do pop off could be quite impressive indeed

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

My take on today should anything spark off.

 

My eyes are drawn to potential of a stronger cell somewhere to the east of the Brecons in the afternoon/early evening period.

WEATHER3.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Some of the dew points being shown tomorrow are probably the highest I've seen in the UK, the Euro4 has 22c dew points in parts of the west Midlands. Not hard to see why CAPE values are so insane.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

Finally finished work and it's baking...don't see anything storm wise happening around here today have more interest in tomorrow but you never know.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

some of the highest cape, lift and dewpoint charts that I have ever seen in the UK over the next 24 hours in my neck of the woods, yet it looks like it will all be wasted....makes me want to cry :cray:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well, this looks extraordinary for the UK.  We appear to be off the scale into 'black hole' territory on the GFS 06z CAPE chart.  Pretty close to my location too.  Suspect nothing will happen but you never know.

36-505UK.thumb.gif.b00fd04a3fc1e443c9d1b3c47e55ba66.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well, this looks extraordinary for the UK.  We appear to be off the scale into 'black hole' territory on the GFS 06z CAPE chart.  Pretty close to my location too.  Suspect nothing will happen but you never know.

36-505UK.thumb.gif.b00fd04a3fc1e443c9d1b3c47e55ba66.gif

Looking more promising for tomorrow night, fingers crossed as I'm near the white areas

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

4672 j/Kg is the highest I can see on the GFS. lol

That's regarded as extreme in the US. Unreal.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire, East Midlands, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Storms
  • Location: Derbyshire, East Midlands, UK

I live near the white area of the map very interesting to see it's been a touch cooler here today and overcast murky skies. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Just remember though that CAPE is meaningless if there's nothing to trigger a storm, or capping is too strong for anything to go up. Nevertheless, that level of instability is mighty impressive.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

Activity now to the east of Aberystwyth and to the South of the Brecon Beacons

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

That's regarded as extreme in the US. Unreal.

Do you think something similar to June 2012 is possible? Given the potential energy? I've never seen SB cape in the UK that high before, ever. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Do you think something similar to June 2012 is possible? Given the potential energy? I've never seen SB cape in the UK that high before, ever. 

I'm utterly useless at remembering dates of weather events I'm afraid :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...