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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Leicester is the best bet, CU tower on sat24 and heavy precip out of nowhere on the radar.

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Posted
  • Location: Waddington, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Waddington, Lincolnshire
5 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Leicester is the best bet, CU tower on sat24 and heavy precip out of nowhere on the radar.

Looks like it's game on.

Edit: maybe not.

Edited by IMP757
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Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

You guys have too much hope lol

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

Oh the temptress that is Mother nature

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Gone very dark here,even to the extent the street lights have come on,Any Storms for Cheshire.?

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

Can smell rain, there seems to be a small patch of rain on the radar about 20 miles to my West.

(photo taken in that direction)

unnamed.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

Latest forecast for here isn't looking good as there only seems to be a risk of thundery showers tomorrow with little chance of these even coming off.

Just looks like the coming cooler weather by Wednesday onwards will produce some murky drizzly weather.:rofl:

I'm so glad i stayed up to watch those frequent lightning storms one of the nights in May now because if i had just gone to bed and missed them i would be very annoyed seeing all of this heat going to waste and easing away with no thunderstorms.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

South Wales!,anoprop..

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Severe thunderstorms possible tomorrow

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 20 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 21 Jun 2017

ISSUED 20:02 UTC Mon 19 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

... WALES / MIDLANDS / W COUNTRY / HOME COUNTIES ...

Day-on-day weakening of the ~650mb nose continues as heights aloft gradually fall, which combined with low-level convergence and strong surface heating (generating 1,000 - 2,000 Jkg-1 CAPE) will bring the risk of a few isolated heavy showers / thunderstorms very late Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. Forecast profiles are once again quite dry, which will serve to inhibit deep convection, but should a strong cell develop then, given such instability and dry air aloft, there is scope for large hail 2.0-2.5cm in diameter and localised flash flooding as a result of slow storm motion and local accumulations of 30-40mm in a short space of time. As a result, a SVR has been issued for this, but it is easily possible that no thunderstorms develop and consequently no severe weather will occur etc.

... REPUBLIC OF IRELAND / NORTHERN IRELAND / IRISH SEA / SCOTLAND / N ENGLAND ...

On Tuesday night, an approaching Atlantic trough will advect the high WBPT airmass over southern England northwards across the Irish Sea to Northern Ireland. Increased forcing as upper trough approaches will likely destabilise the mid-levels, especially during the latter stages of the night. An increase in elevated thunderstorm potential seems likely during the early hours of Wednesday, particularly over the Irish Sea, moving into Cumbria and parts of SW Scotland. The risk also extends farther south towards west Wales and perhaps SW England by Wednesday morning, but with less forcing likely here and so greater uncertainty as to whether such (large) instability will be released. The exact areas at risk is still somewhat uncertain, and hence the forecast may need adjusting nearer the time as confidence improves - the SLGT, for example, may need extending across Northern Ireland.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-20

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and anything unusual
  • Location: Edinburgh

Nothing is going to happen today from the looks of it but I've learnt something new in the form of anomalous propagation. Always wondered why there were tiny intense showers showing up on the radar where there shouldn't be anything.

Edited by Martin Auld
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Just now, Martin Auld said:

Nothing is going to happen today from the looks of it but I've learnt something new in the form of anomalous propagation. Always wondered why there was tiny intense showers showing up on the radar where there shouldn't be anything.

Anoprop is the scourge of shower chasing :nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
1 hour ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Leicester is the best bet, CU tower on sat24 and heavy precip out of nowhere on the radar.

I've been watching the Leicester cumulus tower from Northants since about 6pm. Looks good but nothing doing. 

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

So - that's today done!

Now, how's about tomorrow? That nose really is under some pressure now... Here is hoping the cap shatter tomorrow and us southerners can get a slice of the action

:pardon::bomb:

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich

As you say, the 650-700mb nose really is proving a pain in developing any deep convection. Plus the mid-levels are still very dry, and quite dry also at the surface too - all in all serves to inhibit deep moist convection. This was the 12z ascent from Nottingham:

nose.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

Sooooo... The question is could tomorrow be game on? 

The top image is what I took this evening... The bottom image I took two years ago and the following day was another swelteringly hot day, but oh boy did it go bang in the evening. 

Plus both were taken from more or less the same spot!! 

Here's hoping. :bomb::good:

B6A96282-8A39-49B7-99DF-8EAA74E6B1D1.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Looks like we all missed out apart from one or two showers in places lol, I reckon this will be the same for tomorrow and Wedneday; where we have high levels of Cape but nothing or very little will come out from it. Otherwise it would be a great set up if we had storms coming up from the South. Fingers crossed for something later this Summer though

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Charts are still showing even more cape with the 18z, now in -12 for Wednesday. But again it's whether anything will trigger it off

HIGH CAPE WED.png

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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

Forecast for tomorrow 1000-1700.

jfQBR0L.png

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

There is anaprop but it's moved somewhat over the past hour, if it's a cell trying to break through the cap it's doing so persistently.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and anything unusual
  • Location: Edinburgh

Hmmmm, things still looking good for Wednesday but all could change in the next 24 hours. Hopefully the cape is utilized otherwise it's such a waste.

IMG_2263.thumb.PNG.6a6bfc89fd38d6981b8cb3f7626283a4.PNG

 

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Keeping an eye on what's developing south of Derby currently, can't sleep anyway as it's crazy-hot still in the bedroom.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Feeling humid this morning, and a lot of mid level cloud. 

00z run is still saying yes to some of the most explosive CAPE levels I've ever seen modelled for the UK. -12 LI slap bang over me at 18:00 tomorrow :bomb:!! Wonder what estofex will have to say. Clearly some potential for massive updrafts. Just need that stubborn cap to give way. 

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