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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
31 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Absolutely swealtering here with clear skies all day. Have a huge miagraine which I'm sure the heat has contributed to. So hot, literally can't do anything as it drains all your energy. Theres no breeze, nothing. HATE it. :angry: I think wishing for any storms round here today was optomistic at best, although the end part of next week sounds like it has some potential at this stage so will be keeping an eye on it.

I'm sat in the garden with the sun behind a tree with a refreshing cold elderflower cider drink - just dead heat. Phone says it's still 29C - can very well believe it.

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Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

I can't deal with this heat it's ridiculous I've had 2 cold showers but yet again I'm dripping with sweat and like many got work tomorrow bring on a breakdown and for once I don't care about a storm I just want a temperature that doesn't make me feel like I'm a melting ice cream it's horrible.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Well local forecast has removed storms for us however GFS has a fair bit of cape. GFS has rain over us tomorrow. Bad news for us is the wind direction north west so if there any storms I suspect it will be us brewing them for people south east of us.

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

 Last june gave a very active thundery high pressure system earlier in the month,the most active I`ve seen.

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Posted
  • Location: East Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells n snow
  • Location: East Hants

Horrible sticky weather. Not enjoying this heat.

Some decent convection out there though, seen a few towers bubbling up, particularly to my east and south-east towards London.  

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 19 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 20 Jun 2017

ISSUED 19:44 UTC Sun 18 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Under broad upper ridging on Monday, strong surface heating will yield CAPE values of 1,000-1,500 Jkg-1 with dewpoints typically in the mid-high teens Celsius. The mid-level (~600mb) nose is less-pronounced compared with Sunday, especially the farther north one goes as heights aloft are relatively lower, especially later in the day, which suggests an increased likelihood for deep convection to occur - though probably not widespread enough to warrant a SLGT for now. Some reasonable shear too with favourable hodographs allowing perhaps some organisation.

Forecast profiles are quite dry, but given some low-level wind convergence a few isolated heavy showers / thunderstorms may develop in the late afternoon and evening hours. Any storms that do manage to form would be a capable of producing frequent lightning - but the main risk being local flash flooding (given slow storm motion and PWAT of 30-35mm, suggesting 30-40mm may fall in a short space of time) and large hail locally up to 2.0cm in diameter. This setup is then borderline SVR, and may require an upgrade if confidence improves.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-19

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-on-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Storms
  • Location: Southend-on-Sea

I live in Southend and the only place I can get any sort of relief from this heat is on the seafront where there is a good wind blowing off the sea keeping us cool. This afternoon was very hot but would have been unbearable without the sea breeze.

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex

Sleeping tonight is not going to be fun, although there is something of a slight breeze coming in the window, and that combined with the fan should hopefully help somewhat. 

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

At least tonight with clear skies there's a good chance of seeing some Noctilucent Clouds, looking promising for tomorrow here in the Peak District with GFS forecasting the likelyhood of thundery showers almost overhead.

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6 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

At least tonight with clear skies there's a good chance of seeing some Noctilucent Clouds, looking promising for tomorrow here in the Peak District with GFS forecasting the likelyhood of thundery showers almost overhead.

What time for noctilucents?

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
45 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

What time for noctilucents?

Normally seen around the times of 10:30pm and 2:30am the season is just getting started for this year due to high troposphere temps but the cooling trend has begun and they were seen in North Wales on the 16th.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 3 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 20 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 21 Jun 2017

ISSUED 20:47 UTC Sun 18 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

... HOME COUNTIES / S MIDLANDS / CS + SW ENGLAND / WALES ...

Under broad upper ridging on Tuesday, strong surface heating will yield CAPE values of 1,000-1,500 Jkg-1 with dewpoints typically in the high teens Celsius. With a pronounced build of surface pressure north a cold front, this front will be forced southwards such that the area of convective interest will shift southwards compared with previous couple of days. Once again, forecast profiles are very dry, but given some low-level wind convergence a few isolated heavy showers / thunderstorms may develop in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Any storms that do manage to form (which remains uncertain) would be a capable of producing frequent lightning - but the main risk being local flash flooding (given slow storm motion and PWAT of 30-35mm, suggesting 30-40mm may fall in a short space of time) and large hail with scope for diameters locally up to 2.0cm. These showers/storms will decay in the evening hours as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer commences.

... REPUBLIC OF IRELAND / NORTHERN IRELAND / S/SW SCOTLAND ...

On Tuesday night, an approaching Atlantic trough will advect the high WBPT airmass over southern England northwards across the Irish Sea to Northern Ireland. Increased forcing as upper trough approaches will likely destabilise the mid-levels, especially during the latter stages of the night. An increase in elevated thunderstorm potential seems likely during the early hours of Wednesday, particularly over Northern Ireland and parts of the Irish Sea, moving into SW Scotland. The risk also extends farther south towards west Wales by Wednesday morning, but with less forcing likely here and so greater uncertainty as to whether such instability will be released. The exact areas at risk is still somewhat uncertain, and hence the forecast may need adjusting nearer the time as confidence improves.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-20

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Will probably come to nothing and may well be the Goofus having a larf, but some very interesting forecast soundings in N England on Wednesday.

Huge amount of CAPE and good wind shear, especially directional. On the first Skew-T you can even see some reasonable capping before it gets eroded by the heat and humidity of the day - loaded gun?. Might come to nothing but some interesting forecast soundings nonetheless, very good for the UK. In fact, I'd be happy to see these on a US chase. If this came off it would certainly give the potential for rotating, strong storms if anything kicks off. All very much likely to change however!

skew0.862612231475399.png

skew0.101547250365005.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Some insane charts being banded about by the GFS for Wed, 18z brings some of the Midlands into the game too...however we all know how it will pan out as the event nears! Usually ends in a downgrade!

This is as extreme as I can remember seeing CAPE charts in the UK

ukcapeli.png

Precipitation looks to be scattered though

ukprec.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

 

18z still showing lots of cape for Wednesday, just worried there wont be much to set the storms off if it stayed like this closer to the time 

WEDNESDAY STORM.png

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

Yes I'm awake at 4am!

had the fan on most of the night - and it's not quiet when running - so that's probably why.

Anyhoo - estofex have plonked a level 1 over the central area of the UK, so with any luck there should be a decent storm about later on this afternoon.

Quote

...UK and N Germany...

 

Moderate 15-20 m/s 0-6 km deep layer shear from proximity to the jet stream may induce rotation in some cells that develop in a not very high CAPE environment, increasing the chances of isolated large hail. Lifting mechanisms are minimal, so initiation should be sparse and the threat marginal.

I'm gonna try and get some sleep, fingers crossed this hot spell brings us some convective fireworks before it's through!

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL

At least there is a bit more of a chance today.

...UK and N Germany...

Moderate 15-20 m/s 0-6 km deep layer shear from proximity to the jet stream may induce rotation in some cells that develop in a not very high CAPE environment, increasing the chances of isolated large hail. Lifting mechanisms are minimal, so initiation should be sparse and the threat marginal.

.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Well I got 2 hours of sleep... even with all the windows open. I really hope we get a decent thundery breakdown.

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Posted
  • Location: Buchloe, Bayern, Germany
  • Location: Buchloe, Bayern, Germany
1 hour ago, LightningLover said:

Well I got 2 hours of sleep... even with all the windows open. I really hope we get a decent thundery breakdown.

It is nice though having breakfast/dinner in the garden, defiantly an incentive to get up earlier!

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

HOLY COW!!! :shok::bomb::crazy:
Sorry I've just been looking at the 00z run... I've regained control of my senses now... I think. Lol :crazy:
Right ... Where to start?
Today is a good a point as any... 
The first two images show todays potential... And I have to say that it DOES look quite promising. 

5947847672216_Screenshot(28).thumb.png.e7817ab805e907bf9a43bc6903f97d70.png 5947847672216_Screenshot(28).thumb.png.e7817ab805e907bf9a43bc6903f97d70.png

The next two images show tomorrows potential... :good:
5947853c2777a_Screenshot(30).thumb.png.323cd0c4192365d25dc4876735ee4ebb.png 594784ee68fbb_Screenshot(31).thumb.png.11d8f852a4fbee7950351b930a13f577.png

And then we move on to Wednesday... :bomb::shok::crazy:

5947858a15ccc_Screenshot(32).thumb.png.3beefeffc0ca0ffccfe7ee5cb543dde2.png  5947859079c26_Screenshot(34).thumb.png.edbb06a437dc76195d0ba838a2d80cab.png

Now the question is how much capping is going to take place? As despite these quite frankly astonishing looking charts this could end up being a huge bust for many.
But where the cap does break... Well... :bomb::yahoo:
As always, good luck to everyone on this, stay safe folks, and lets hope that this IS the start of the big beasts for this this summer :friends::drunk:

And don't ask me why this chart for today has appeared down here. Lol 
\/ \/ \/ \/

Screenshot (29).png

Edited by Dangerous55019
A random chart at the bottom of my post
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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
2 hours ago, Sparkiee storm said:

At least there is a bit more of a chance today.

...UK and N Germany...

Moderate 15-20 m/s 0-6 km deep layer shear from proximity to the jet stream may induce rotation in some cells that develop in a not very high CAPE environment, increasing the chances of isolated large hail. Lifting mechanisms are minimal, so initiation should be sparse and the threat marginal.

.png

Nice to see that I'm just about under a Level 1 from Estofex :bomb::good:

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

yep looks good doesn't it. Let's see if we can get a trigger. I have a -5 li for tonight which was not there before. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

yep looks good doesn't it. Let's see if we can get a trigger. I have a -5 li for tonight which was not there before. 

Morning @Chris.R :)
I agree, its looking amazing... From where I am at the moment the skies have turned hazy... And I can see some juicy towers starting to go up to my south... I'm just about to take the dog out, and I'll try and get some phots, and post them up :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
29 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

HOLY COW!!! :shok::bomb::crazy:
Sorry I've just been looking at the 00z run... I've regained control of my senses now... I think. Lol :crazy:
Right ... Where to start?
Today is a good a point as any... 
The first two images show todays potential... And I have to say that it DOES look quite promising. 

5947847672216_Screenshot(28).thumb.png.e7817ab805e907bf9a43bc6903f97d70.png 5947847672216_Screenshot(28).thumb.png.e7817ab805e907bf9a43bc6903f97d70.png

The next two images show tomorrows potential... :good:
5947853c2777a_Screenshot(30).thumb.png.323cd0c4192365d25dc4876735ee4ebb.png 594784ee68fbb_Screenshot(31).thumb.png.11d8f852a4fbee7950351b930a13f577.png

And then we move on to Wednesday... :bomb::shok::crazy:

5947858a15ccc_Screenshot(32).thumb.png.3beefeffc0ca0ffccfe7ee5cb543dde2.png  5947859079c26_Screenshot(34).thumb.png.edbb06a437dc76195d0ba838a2d80cab.png

Now the question is how much capping is going to take place? As despite these quite frankly astonishing looking charts this could end up being a huge bust for many.
But where the cap does break... Well... :bomb::yahoo:
As always, good luck to everyone on this, stay safe folks, and lets hope that this IS the start of the big beasts for this this summer :friends::drunk:

And don't ask me why this chart for today has appeared down here. Lol 
\/ \/ \/ \/

Screenshot (29).png

It's been interesting as we've had some charts like that for wednesday for a good two or so days but I'm worried that there wont be anything to set it off :/ 

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