Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[SnowBear]

Clouds bubbling up over Colchester, was a clear sky under an hour ago.

[Thunderstruck]

Same here. Lots of cloud just formed from nowhere.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Indeed, with temperatures higher than what models have forecasted so far, the Capping will no doubt be under more pressure! Could also be a good influence on stronger sea breeze convergence 

[LightningLover]

Hello! I'm new here, and as my name suggests, I love a good thunderstorm! I am currently watching potential developments later today, even though i'm just outside the warning area.

Edited June 18, 2017 by LightningLover

[NUT]

Wednesday for us up here looks possibly stormy. Spoiled this year more thunder potentally on the way had decent storms twice this year already looking forward to a 3rd dose

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Hello! I'm new here, and as my name suggests, I love a good thunderstorm! I am currently watching potential developments later today, even though i'm just outside the warning area.

Hi welcome to the forum!

Looks like you might be a little too far south but I think it's all to play for - incredibly hot outside already

[TJS1998Tom]

And as ever, since yesterday the GFS has decreased the chance of large thunderstorms, lol. But still suggesting a few strong ones here and there 

[Dangerous55019]

On 17/06/2017 at 11:15, Chris.R said:

 You were very lucky, you got the very last sferic of the elevated MCS, it was just a few spots of rain by the time it reached me. As a rule   What ever you have, I usually get next. 

Hiya @Chris.R 
If the dog hadn't have wanted out, I'd have missed it.
Here's hoping for much better this time for everyone 

[Dangerous55019]

OMG!!!!
I've just had a look at the 06z run, and this is whats showing now for Wednesday 



*Memo to self: Don't get too excited... Remeber the 19th of July last year... Incredible cape and LI figures for my area, but the cap held, and all that was to be had was a poxy clap of thunder*

[LightningLover]

2 days ago Net Weather was saying there was an 85% chance of t-storms in my area for Thursday, but now it's a 0% chance (Please change...)

Edited June 18, 2017 by LightningLover

[Dami]

My clear sky is now dotted with clouds, but thats the norm here. A breeze has come from no where.

[Milocation]

Same Dami....!

[Mapantz]

Come Tuesday and Wednesday, a frontal system may add some forcing to aid the breaking of an inversion. It doesn't look like a classic end to the heat though, you'll be lucky (or unlucky) to catch anything- it all looks very isolated.

[LightningLover]

7 minutes ago, Dami said:

My clear sky is now dotted with clouds, but thats the norm here. A breeze has come from no where.

Your lucky... its REALLY still here, only a couple of clouds.

[Dangerous55019]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Come Tuesday and Wednesday, a frontal system may add some forcing to aid the breaking of an inversion. It doesn't look like a classic end to the heat though, you'll be lucky (or unlucky) to catch anything- it all looks very isolated.

This is also my concern as well @Mapantz ... But at the moment I'm keeping the faith 

[LightningLover]

I agree with Mapantz. Any storms being set off will probably be isolated... but I will stay hopeful!

[Mokidugway]

Lots of  ACCAS around now from previously blue sky

Edited June 18, 2017 by Mokidugway

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Is east anglia still the place to be this afternoon or has the risk area shifted?

[Dami]

no storms in beddy today 

[Thunderstruck]

Very warm out. Cloud is forming quickly but burning off quickly. We'll see.

[VillagePlank]

Cambridge would be my hot spot tip, today, and surrounded areas, particularly to the East of Cambridge.

This skew-T suggests moderate convective potential (K = 27) leading to chance of thunderstorms (TT = 44). Plenty of energy about (CAPE = 1352J/kg, Dp = 19.6) but with marginal instability (LI = -4) there is limited potential for them to fire up. Noteworthy that instability is at the very cusp of being better than marginal.

Lucky to get one, but I reckon there will be one or two about.

Happy hunting!

Edited June 18, 2017 by VillagePlank

[Dami]

Posted my 'clear' pic in SE thread. Here's the area I photo'd before.

[Paul]

The NetWX model has pretty much nailed the cloud development up to midday

Model

Satellite

Rolling the model forward, it breaks out some sharp showers / storms during the next few hours.

  

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Are any storms likely to have a lot of lightning?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

If I get the chance later on this evening, I may have a drive east towards Ely/Cambridge area, as that looks the place to be according to current output. I'm keeping my eye on the possible afternoon sea breeze from Norfolk/Suffolk/Essex to fire up and create the convergence zone that could be the trigger.