Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Methuselah]

Lots of convection here, today!

[Windblade]

Towers and cauliflower heads going up in london. Just had a heavy shower about half an hour ago but no sparks or rumbles.

Edited June 9, 2017 by Windblade

[Windblade]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 09 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 10 Jun 2017

ISSUED 20:11 UTC Thu 08 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

As a sharpening upper trough clears eastwards across Britain on Friday, so the main forcing for ascent will shift east and exit across the North Sea. The trough is characterised by relatively steep mid-level lapse rates, and should help yield 300-600 Jkg-1CAPE in response to modest surface heating. Some sporadic / isolated lightning may be ongoing at the beginning for the forecast period over western portions of the LOW threat level, with the area of best convective potential gradually shifting eastwards through the day.

 

A couple of thunderstorms will be possible over eastern Britain late morning into the early afternoon as phasing of upper trough overlaps somewhat with diurnal heating - but with the trough then moving over the North Sea, a decrease in potential (and any lightning activity) is expected from mid-afternoon onwards as warming and ridging aloft overspreads the area ahead of the next Atlantic system. Overall lightning activity is not deemed high enough to warrant a SLGT at present.

 

(From Convcetiveweather.co.uk)

Edited June 9, 2017 by Windblade

[Weather-history]

 

[stainesbloke]

This is good

 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 11 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 12 Jun 2017

ISSUED 17:08 UTC Sat 10 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Scattered showers, some perhaps weakly-electrified, will affect many parts of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland on Sunday as an upper trough migrates NE-wards accompanied by steepening mid-level lapse rates. Some small hail and gusty winds will be possible with the strongest cells.

A few showers are possible farther south where instability will be weaker but DLS stronger - forecast profiles are generally much drier aloft and hence capped, and so while heavy showers may develop they will largely remain too shallow for lightning activity. That said, strong DLS may allow for some supercell-like structures capable of producing gusty winds.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-11

[Ben Sainsbury]

From experience it seems really uncommon to see up to 80kts of DLS. For this to be passing over southern areas means we could see some photogenic showers later? Could be interesting!

[Dangerous55019]

20 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

This is good

 

One word... WOW!! 
Cheers for sharing that @stainesbloke 

[Dangerous55019]

Being as this year has been very quiet for me storms wise (only a hand full of one flash one bang storms since January plus one reasonable storm in May around the River Severn), I have to confess that I'm starting to feel really quite storm starved, so I've just been having a look at what the good ole GFS is forecasting, and I came across these gems.
And at two weeks away, what could possible go wrong between now and then? 
*prays to the weather gods*

[Nick F]

Some isolated potential for storms showing middle part of this week atm, though may change.

Warm and humid air looks to be drawn north across England on Wednesday between low pressure to the west and high pressure close to the east. Some weak CAPE showing across central and northern England - weak upper forcing but orographic uplift of Pennines could trigger a few isolated heavy showers or storms.

Then attention turns to Wednesday night/Thursday morning, as theta-e plume / elevated mixed layer (characterised by steep lapse rates) advecting NE across SE England / E Anglia shows signs of destabilising - as upper trough moves in from the west and surface convergence creates increased large scale ascent of the warm/moist conveyor. This could trigger some elevated storms overnight and through Thursday morning before the cold front moves through from the west in the afternoon/early evening.

 

[TJS1998Tom]

On 6/11/2017 at 12:58, Dangerous55019 said:

Being as this year has been very quiet for me storms wise (only a hand full of one flash one bang storms since January plus one reasonable storm in May around the River Severn), I have to confess that I'm starting to feel really quite storm starved, so I've just been having a look at what the good ole GFS is forecasting, and I came across these gems.
And at two weeks away, what could possible go wrong between now and then? 
*prays to the weather gods*

Wow, most of the country would be in for a treat if that ever happened. Shame it's so far away though : P

[Thunderstruck]

More potential? I feel like we're starting to get a little bit greedy down here in the SE!

[TJS1998Tom]

23 minutes ago, Jcweather said:

More potential? I feel like we're starting to get a little bit greedy down here in the SE!

One day I may just end up living down there for the storms lol, I'm hoping us in Lincolnshire will get some good ones this Summer

[Daniel*]

45 minutes ago, Jcweather said:

More potential? I feel like we're starting to get a little bit greedy down here in the SE!

Potential stands for sod all if it is not exploited. Yet to have had an overhead storm..

Edited June 12, 2017 by Daniel*

[stainesbloke]

20 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Potential stands for sod all if it is not exploited. Yet to have had an overhead storm..

Exactly, same here. Every year for the last 10-15 years or so we've seen charts with plenty of potential, which have 98% of the time turned into a damp squib or a Kent clipper. Yawn. 

[Dami]

At least most of you have heard some thunder at least. Plenty of annoying wind, cool temps and overcast skies. At least this time last year I was out of 'no storms' in spectacular fashion.

Edited June 12, 2017 by Dami

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Am I the only one who thinks this year has been terrible so far? Not even heard barely a rumble yet and it's nearly the solstice. Kent has been the place to be so far. 

[NUT]

43 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Am I the only one who thinks this year has been terrible so far? Not even heard barely a rumble yet and it's nearly the solstice. Kent has been the place to be so far. 

Can't grumble here. 2 saturday's in a row had pretty vicious storms (last year just had 1 storm day in total so that's already one more than last year's effort)

[Supacell]

It's not looking bad for me in NW Germany on Thursday if the current charts come off

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

11 minutes ago, Supacell said:

It's not looking bad for me in NW Germany on Thursday if the current charts come off

 

I'm sure you'll be seeing a fair bit of action. NW Germany always ends up with our failed plumes! 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 13 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 14 Jun 2017

ISSUED 16:51 UTC Mon 12 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Scattered showers on Tuesday will be capped to a limited depth, perhaps just sufficient for a few isolated lightning strikes.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-13

[Severe Blizzard]

I really hope that this next plume can deliver in central SE England (Guildford). Thoroughly fed up missing out by a few miles each time and getting nothing. 

Judging by the remarks, I am not alone in thinking it has been a dreadful start to the storm season. So near and yet so far when it comes to no events in the Guildford area. I too am sick of windy cool dross which is always a result of the S.w.lys that cause this infuriating Eastward shunting of storms ensuring Guildford area misses out each time. 

Let's hope Wednesday 14th / Thursday 15th provides the long awaited goods at last.

[staplehurst]

Not a huge amount of model support for a thundery plume - a few days ago several models were allowing some elevated thunderstorms to flirt with SE England / E Anglia late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but most models have since backed off this idea and retained most of the thundery weather (which looks quite widespread) over the Continent. That said, residual warm, moist air over E Anglia / SE England and an upper trough migrating east with a weak surface cold front might just be enough to develop some isolated heavy showers / thunderstorms perhaps on Thursday, but this very much depends on the shape of the upper trough, how much warm/moist air is still in place etc. Ideally want the upper trough to be slower and dig further south to advect better unstable air northwards into CS England.

[Nick F]

Yep, the 12z GFS and Netwx-MR shunted the instability further east, staying on near continent and clipping far east of Kent. Mind you, ECMWF all along so far has not been keen at all for a thundery plume across the SE Weds night / Thurs morning. Teach me to be led astray by the BBC forecast earlier today!

Edited June 12, 2017 by Nick F

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Yep, the 12z GFS and Netwx-MR shunted the instability further east, staying on near continent and clipping far east of Kent. Mind you, ECMWF all along so far has not been keen at all for a thundery plume across the SE Weds night / Thurs morning.

That's unusual nick....