Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Delka]

34 minutes ago, Dami said:

well would you look at that,Bedford just misses out

im right on the edge so i doubt i'll manage to get anything either.. when storms do get nearby they seem to split either side of town so I don't expect much anymore

[Gordon Webb]

On 31/05/2017 at 15:02, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I'm away on a Friday, though only going to surbiton - but still means I won't be free if a chase needs to happen.

Fingers crossed anyway - I'll only be at the pub - so if a storm arrives I'll run outside and watch!

be careful not to spill your drink

[Milocation]

1 hour ago, Delka said:

im right on the edge so i doubt i'll manage to get anything either.. when storms do get nearby they seem to split either side of town so I don't expect much anymore

Colchester is dead in the middle, hopefully Kent wont keep the good stuff to itself!

[Dami]

2 hours ago, Delka said:

im right on the edge so i doubt i'll manage to get anything either.. when storms do get nearby they seem to split either side of town so I don't expect much anymore

That is exactly what happens here. but the weather splits then reforms and turns into storms. 

[Thunderstruck]

I hope something happens in North Kent too, because that puts it in a perfect position to hit me just the other side of the Thames! 

[Windblade]

6 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I'm just inside the warning zone. 

[Mokidugway]

So all in all not much happening to get excited about ,lol

 

[Windblade]

3 hours ago, sunnijim said:

No imports this time, home grown material. So no 'Kent clipper' on the agenda this time, however North Kent is in the warning zone, So am sure they will get the best of any storms! 

I doubt it. Last year was dismal with one 20 min night time storm and one day of constant thunder from passing cells that would literally run parallel to us All. Day. Long. Absolutely NOTHING came overhead, it was boiling hot and sunny all day.  This year I just got the very tip of Sunday nights decaying imports with very infrequent lightning two or more minutes apart. Five flashes and rumbles and that was it. Woke up to a few rumbles Saturday morning as well, again, the decaying dregs of storms from elsewhere, a couple of distant flashes and rumbles and that's your lot.

Other than the above I've lost count of the amount of storms that have just missed us, or the cells that pass over us and then electrify once they've got 20 miles away. 

 

[Frosty hollows]

1 minute ago, Windblade said:

I doubt it. Last year was dismal with one 20 min night time storm and one day of constant thunder from passing cells that would literally run parallel to us All. Day. Long. Absolutely NOTHING came overhead, it was boiling hot and sunny all day.  This year I just got the very tip of Sunday nights decaying imports with very infrequent lightning two or more minutes apart. Five flashes and rumbles and that was it. Woke up to a few rumbles Saturday morning as well, again, the decaying dregs of storms from elsewhere, a couple of distant flashes and rumbles and that's your lot.

Other than the above I've lost count of the amount of storms that have just missed us, or the cells that pass over us and then electrify once they've got 20 miles away. 

 

That often happens here. Cells cross the Thames, hit the Chilterns then BOOM! Aylesbury and High Wycombe get the action

[James1979]

1 hour ago, Dami said:

That is exactly what happens here. but the weather splits then reforms and turns into storms. 

Hmmm, seems to happen quite a lot here too... do you think that most storms are actually mirages and they can only be viewed from afar and don't really exist?! 

[Dami]

We are a breeding ground for home grown storms here, so as well as destroying them , I have watched many a shower turn in a full blown storm further up inland. 

The only saving grace is now and again I am lucky - If I get a storm here, I really get a storm. Last year about this time, a cell popped over head and lasted well over an hour and half. It was quite something and it hadn't been an idea to pop down to the chippy for tea either. 

Had a few storms last year and I haven't had a year I haven't heard a bit of thunder, so heres hoping 

Edited June 1, 2017 by Dami

[Supacell]

19 minutes ago, Dami said:

We are a breeding ground for home grown storms here, so as well as destroying them , I have watched many a shower turn in a full blown storm further up inland. 

The only saving grace is now and again I am lucky - If I get a storm here, I really get a storm. Last year about this time, a cell popped over head and lasted well over an hour and half. It was quite something and it hadn't been an idea to pop down to the chippy for tea either. 

Had a few storms last year and I haven't had a year I haven't heard a bit of thunder, so heres hoping 

June 7th last year was an absolute corker.

       

Unfortunately everything looks way too far east for me tomorrow. Even if I chase from work the likelihood of me getting to where the storms are in time to see them is low. More opportunities through the weekend and into next week though from the charts.

 

Edited June 1, 2017 by Supacell

[Harry]

I suspect my area could be a breeding ground tomorrow, with maybe getting the first few cracks here before off towards the NE towards Essex/EA. Often happens unfortunately however I dare say I'd get lynched for suggesting I feel some kind of a grievance with that (I don't I hasten to add)

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 02 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 03 Jun 2017

ISSUED 18:50 UTC Thu 01 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper vortex will approach from the Atlantic, preceded by a strengthening southerly flow encouraging advection of a warm, moist airmass at low-levels ahead of an eastward-moving cold front.

Given enough insolation during Friday, combined with low-level convergence, then a few scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the warm sector during the afternoon and evening hours across E/SE England. This is highly dependent on the speed of the cold front, which carries some uncertainty - in general, a quicker arrival will narrow the window of opportunity for phasing with maximum daytime heating.

Nonetheless, given 600-800 Jkg-1 CAPE and reasonable DLS a few thunderstorms seem plausible at least, in an environment favourable for organisation into multicells and perhaps even a supercell. Initiation could be as early as 11-14z. Forecast profiles look fairly saturated, so hail perhaps not such an issue - though the strongest cells could produce local incidences of hail up to 1.5cm in diameter. Surface water flooding perhaps more of a significant risk given PWAT 30-35mm - scope then for 25-30mm to fall in a short space of time.

There are also suggestions amongst NWP guidance of an additional cluster of elevated deep convection to occur during the evening and night hours over similar areas

In the post-frontal environment, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and bring a few scattered showers late in the day and into the night across the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and into western Scotland - some perhaps weakly electrified.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-02

[Biggin]

17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

There are also suggestions amongst NWP guidance of an additional cluster of elevated deep convection to occur during the evening and night hours over similar areas

I like.

[Harry]

27 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 02 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 03 Jun 2017

ISSUED 18:50 UTC Thu 01 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper vortex will approach from the Atlantic, preceded by a strengthening southerly flow encouraging advection of a warm, moist airmass at low-levels ahead of an eastward-moving cold front.

Given enough insolation during Friday, combined with low-level convergence, then a few scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the warm sector during the afternoon and evening hours across E/SE England. This is highly dependent on the speed of the cold front, which carries some uncertainty - in general, a quicker arrival will narrow the window of opportunity for phasing with maximum daytime heating.

Nonetheless, given 600-800 Jkg-1 CAPE and reasonable DLS a few thunderstorms seem plausible at least, in an environment favourable for organisation into multicells and perhaps even a supercell. Initiation could be as early as 11-14z. Forecast profiles look fairly saturated, so hail perhaps not such an issue - though the strongest cells could produce local incidences of hail up to 1.5cm in diameter. Surface water flooding perhaps more of a significant risk given PWAT 30-35mm - scope then for 25-30mm to fall in a short space of time.

There are also suggestions amongst NWP guidance of an additional cluster of elevated deep convection to occur during the evening and night hours over similar areas

In the post-frontal environment, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and bring a few scattered showers late in the day and into the night across the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and into western Scotland - some perhaps weakly electrified.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-02

Did yesterday's text mention a potential supercell? Very interesting!

Had better make sure I start work nice and early just in case there are any distractions during the afternoon

[Andy Bown]

From what I can gather looking at forecasts the cold front will bring a spell of rain very slowly West to East which will weaken considerably by the time it reaches the middle third of the country (particularly from the Midlands Southwards). Some places may see no rain at all, just a spell of low cloud, before the front then reaches the hot/humid South East region where it will reinvigorate including thundery activity.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

On 31 May 2017 at 13:38, jeffoliver675 said:

The elevated storms from the Spanish plume on Sunday night provided large amounts of rain.The Spanis plume is always described as being dry and originatin in N Africa and Spain.How does it get moistened to be able to produce such active storms?

The tornado alley storms are pretty much the same, but 100x the scale!! Hot and dry air from Mexico/Arizona and the Rockies plume up over the flat Midwest. But the very humid winds from the Gulf of Mexico make it moisture laden. If only the bay of biscay was as warm!!  

[samadamsuk]

Hey All -

Great animation of a HPC model of the El Reno supercell & F5 nader here (posted on Stormtrack ) - http://news.wisc.edu/a-scientist-and-a-supercomputer-re-create-a-tornado/

I'm hoping for a couple more rounds of thundery weather coming up in the next week or so - models look like they're going that way. Good luck to all chasing tomorrow!

Samos

 

[Harry]

12 minutes ago, samadamsuk said:

Hey All -

Great animation of a HPC model of the El Reno supercell & F5 nader here (posted on Stormtrack ) - http://news.wisc.edu/a-scientist-and-a-supercomputer-re-create-a-tornado/

I'm hoping for a couple more rounds of thundery weather coming up in the next week or so - models look like they're going that way. Good luck to all chasing tomorrow!

Samos

 

Incredible 

[sparky1972]

evening all, just outside the weather warning for storms tomorrow, but you never know, due to be a cloudy day here but if the sun does come through hopefully it will help storm potential

[Team Jo]

I've got tonorrow off so will be out with my tiny copilot and cameras if it looks worthy. Tonne perfectly honest I'd like the cape to be a bit higher, and I think I'm still a bit wary of the instability being shunted off too fast. But I'm hopeful!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Does it look like the front is moving too quickly or covfefe?

[<<Ryan>>]

ESTOFEX's thoughts on tomorrow - 

 

Quote

A level 1 covers many parts of the Balkan States and parts of CNTRL-/W-Europe mainly for excessive rain, isolated large hail and an isolated severe wind gust event.

Finally, we have to mention SE-UK, where the northern edge of the CAPE plume sneaks beneath stronger mid-/upper-level flow. 15-20 m/s DLS and 400-800 J/kg MLCAPE may support a temporarily organized cluster of storms with an isolated large hail risk. However, the evolution of the activity further south (France) adds uncertainties. In case of the development of a large cluster over NE-France/Benelux, moisture advection/instability and initiation may be delayed or suppressed. Current model data gives enough confidence to stick with a level 1 for now.

http://www.estofex.org/

[Frosty hollows]

59 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Does it look like the front is moving too quickly or covfefe?

Stall pls stall

Edited June 1, 2017 by Frosty hollows
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