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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards


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A brand new thread for the upcoming summer. What will it bring, I am hoping for plenty of hot sunshine and thundery plumes.

Old thread is here:

If you feel that mother nature is dealing you a cruel blow and you are not getting the storms you desire then the No Storms Club is always open. Please feel free to drop in and moan, I am currently a member myself as there has not yet been a storm over my house this year.

Hopefully this club will be empty as this summer progresses

Next opportunity for anything convective will probably be Friday, although this is currently on a knife edge as it could get shunted east to the point where the plume completely misses the UK. After that we still have the chance with an unstable showery set up for the weekend.

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Popped out with the camera after finishing work yesterday at 5:45pm. Got onto the storm which passed through Malton when it was near Sledmere in the Yorkshire Wolds. Visually, it appeared supercellula

A few shots of the storm tonight using iLightningCam app.

BIG storm went over here earlier, only just got power back on. Trees down and roads flooded in the Malton area, never seen anything quite like it, absolute carnage. Unfortunately my weather stati

Posted Images

Yep, this coming friday evening could have some potential. Lets wait and see nearer the time if we get anything. I'm hoping for another mcs but I don't know if thats asking too much at this stage? Would be nice just to see some frequent lightning with varied colours (love the different colours you get, especially orange and pink) instead of the odd rumble and flash but I'll take what I can get. :)

Edited by Windblade
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BBC showing thunder storms possible for us in the far south and east tomorrow evening, hope they make it across the channel again!

Was truly epic on the 29th, never seen lightning anything like it in all my 36 years! 

I was going to walk ove the beach that night but I bottle it.. Being female and on my own with only 5% battery at 1am in the morning I didn't want to chance it.

Feel Gutted I didn't just go over the beach looking back at how epic it must have looked without the visual obstructions blocking my view of the horizon..

Was still awesome from my front door step but bet it was mega watching it unobscured all the way across channel .

Apparently was 190000 strike rate in a 72hr period! And was the largest storm on the planet at that moment in time!

Just amazing.  

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17 minutes ago, jeffoliver675 said:

The elevated storms from the Spanish plume on Sunday night provided large amounts of rain.The Spanis plume is always described as being dry and originatin in N Africa and Spain.How does it get moistened to be able to produce such active storms?

Almost always over the Bay of Biscay, and the English Channel as the summer wares on the SSTs rise. :)

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38 minutes ago, Snowstalker said:

Whoops..the stormy weather possible Friday not Thursday in South East.

Sorry 

That's ok, this thread dated 1st June onwards has been started on 31st May lol.

Those of us in CS England need to hope the Cold Front gets held as far West as possible on Friday, otherwise a very warm/humid morning will just become a dull, wet  afternoon.

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4 hours ago, Andy Bown said:

That's ok, this thread dated 1st June onwards has been started on 31st May lol.

Those of us in CS England need to hope the Cold Front gets held as far West as possible on Friday, otherwise a very warm/humid morning will just become a dull, wet  afternoon.

Oops, I'd best change the title. It's lack of sleep from chasing and missing all the storms at the weekend. Then again, nothing to speak of today so I could argue today doesn't count :D

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Day 3 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 02 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 03 Jun 2017

ISSUED 18:47 UTC Wed 31 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper vortex will approach from the Atlantic, preceded by a strengthening southerly flow encouraging advection of a warm, moist airmass at low-levels ahead of an eastward-moving cold front.

Given enough insolation during Friday, combined with low-level convergence, then a few scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the warm sector during the afternoon and evening hours across E/SE England. This is highly dependent on the speed of the cold front, which carries some uncertainty at present - in general, should the front arrive as quickly as suggested by some NWP guidance, then the risk will be greatly reduced, a slower arrival would result in a bigger area at risk. For now, a SLGT has been issued for those areas with the best potential, but this may be tweaked as confidence improves nearer the event.

In the post-frontal environment, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and bring a few scattered showers later in the day and into the night across the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and into western Scotland - some perhaps weakly electrified.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-02

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Yep, some warm moist pooling combined with surface heating yielding  enough CAPE for some storms ahead of the cold front across SE England and E Anglia Friday afternoon/early evening, triggered by some surface convergence ahead of the front.

IMG_0315.thumb.PNG.70d60f6273537c05f2bbd550be97377b.PNGIMG_0314.thumb.PNG.6e2c5469111accd0c227b76b63edca79.PNG

Latest fax doesn't clear front from SE and EA untill after midnight, however, speed of front clearance, as Dan mentions in his forecast, may change, quicker clearance and storms less likely to have chance to develop before the instability is removed by the cold front.

IMG_0313.thumb.PNG.c7182beb8299127deaa24a2943485636.PNGIMG_0316.thumb.PNG.f355678cd25feb00701e2de01961bd9f.PNG

Edited by Nick F
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DPs of 17C with temps of around 24-25C will probably feel quite oppressive and were any downpours to develop (electrified or not) they could be quite torrential.

My feeling is that GFS is probably underdoing the CAPE (perversely).

Some of the most exciting storms I have witnessed have been from high DP/modest temperature setups (i.e 24-26C). You don't need lightning every few seconds for an enjoyable storm. Sometimes the 1-2 flashes per minute with booming thunder are just as exciting (maybe even more so) than the quiet thunder/lightning fests of the recent weekend.

Edited by Harry
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37 minutes ago, Harry said:

DPs of 17C with temps of around 24-25C will probably feel quite oppressive and were any downpours to develop (electrified or not) they could be quite torrential.

My feeling is that GFS is probably underdoing the CAPE (perversely).

Some of the most exciting storms I have witnessed have been from high DP/modest temperature setups (i.e 24-26C). You don't need lightning every few seconds for an enjoyable storm. Sometimes the 1-2 flashes per minute with booming thunder are just as exciting (maybe even more so) than the quiet thunder/lightning fests of the recent weekend.

Sounds great - as long as I don't have to twiddle my thumbs for 5 mins between forks like on Sunday night / Monday morning...

:whistling:

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1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Includes surbiton :good:

And Egham :) I suspect any thundery activity will occur NE of London, if at all. Happy with a warm sunny day again.

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2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

:)

592fe850f2529_2017-06-01(6).thumb.png.dc56d021b1afb39dfbdb1011f61b30fe.png

No imports this time, home grown material. So no 'Kent clipper' on the agenda this time, however North Kent is in the warning zone, So am sure they will get the best of any storms! 

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2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

:)

592fe850f2529_2017-06-01(6).thumb.png.dc56d021b1afb39dfbdb1011f61b30fe.png

well would you look at that,Bedford just misses out

:wallbash:

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