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Roger J Smith

June 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts

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15.8C please. 

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 Going slightly warmer than last year. 15.6°C please.

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Given all this background warmth which will break at some point, but not just yet, I will go with a nice round 15 degrees.

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15.5*C please, because, well, it... feels right? Yes, that'll serve me well :laugh:

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First item, I have revised down to 15.9 C. 

Second ... the table of entries is open for your interest,

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=7

53 entries have been received so far with 1.75 hours left in May, and the median value is 15.4 C, most of the entries are between 15 and 16 but there are a few on either side, the values not yet taken (to be edited) include (from bottom to top) ...

 

all values below 14.4

(14.4 to 16.2 all have at least one entry)

16.3 to 16.5, 16.7, 17.0, 17.1, 17.3, 17.4, 17.5, 17.6, 17.8, 17.9

(18.0 taken)

18.1 and above (except for 20.5).

 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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Just in time!  I cannot see this warm period breaking anytime soon so I will go for a warm 15.8C please.

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Given the current models, an unsettled first half of June seems likely, but will it be on the cool side. Tempted to go for 14.7c but will go for 15.2c.

Just after the deadline. :oops:

 

Edited by J10

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bit late. 15c please:)

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1981-2010 Daily and Cumulative Normals. plus Daily Extremes for June (1772-2016)

_________________________________________________________________________

Date __ CET __ cum CET __ MAX __________ MIN

01 ____ 13.5 ___ 13.5 _____ 20.9 (1781) ____ 7.7 (1802&1962)

02 ____ 13.8 ___ 13.7 _____ 22.3 (1947) ____ 7.6 (1991)

03 ____ 13.4 ___ 13.6 _____ 23.0 (1947) ____ 7.9 (1773)

04 ____ 13.2 ___ 13.5 _____ 20.3 (1982) ____ 8.0 (1871&1991)

05 ____ 13.3 ___ 13.4 _____ 21.3 (1982) ____ 8.2 (1991)

06 ____ 13.7 ___ 13.5 _____ 22.5 (1950) ____ 8.4 (1909)

07 ____ 14.0 ___ 13.6 _____ 21.6 (1846) ____ 8.6 (1814)

08 ____ 13.9 ___ 13.6 _____ 20.4 (1940) ____ 8.6 (1881&1914)

09 ____ 14.0 ___ 13.6 _____ 20.9 (1970) ____ 7.3 (1816)

10 ____ 14.3 ___ 13.7 _____ 21.5 (1970) ____ 8.2 (1821)

11 ____ 13.6 ___ 13.7 _____ 21.0 (1970) ____ 8.0 (1777)

12 ____ 13.9 ___ 13.7 _____ 20.8 (2006) ____ 8.6 (1841)

13 ____ 14.0 ___ 13.7 ____ 20.5 (1818,1989) __ 8.5 (1901)

14 ____ 14.4 ___ 13.8 _____ 19.4 (1814) ____ 7.9 (1903)

15 ____ 14.2 ___ 13.8 _____ 22.9 (1858) ____ 8.1 (1850)

16 ____ 14.8 ___ 13.9 ____20.7 (1858,1896) __ 9.6 (1869)

17 ____ 15.0 ___ 13.9 _____ 21.4 (1917) ____ 9.1 (1928)

18 ____ 14.8 ___ 14.0 _____ 21.2 (2005) ____ 8.1 (1855)

19 ____ 15.2 ___ 14.1 _____ 22.1 (2005) ____ 7.3 (1795)

20 ____ 15.1 ___ 14.1 _____ 21.7 (1846) ____ 9.0 (1795&1964)

21 ____ 14.4 ___ 14.1 _____ 22.7 (1817) ____ 9.8 (1903)

22 ____ 14.6 ___ 14.1 _____ 22.3 (1941) ____ 9.0 (1823)

23 ____ 14.8 ___ 14.2 _____ 21.8 (1935) ____ 9.4 (1823)

24 ____ 14.9 ___ 14.2 _____ 22.0 (1935) ___ 10.1 (1784)

25 ____ 15.3 ___ 14.2 _____ 21.6 (1935) ____ 8.7 (1835)

26 ____ 15.3 ___ 14.3 _____ 22.3 (1976) ____ 9.7 (1835)

27 ____ 15.6 ___ 14.3 _____ 22.8 (1826) ___ 10.2 (1862)

28 ____ 15.6 ___ 14.4 _____ 22.6 (1976) ____ 9.4 (1812)

29 ____ 16.0 ___ 14.4 _____ 22.4 (1976) ____ 9.7 (1839)

30 ____ 15.8 ___ 14.5 _____ 22.1 (1976) ____ 9.1 (1839)

______________________________________________________________

The frequency of record highs is not very similar to the overall trend, only three have been set since 1989 (in 2005 and 2006) and the four quarters of the time period have this distribution by dates (asterisks show tied years) ... the 1970s and 1982 account for most of the fourth quarter with 1970 and 1976 joining 1982 with multiple entries. The scarcity of records since 1990 is unusual compared to most other months. :

1772 to 1832 __ 1,13* 14 21 27

1833 to 1893 __ 7, 15, 16* 20

1894 to 1954 __ 2,3,16* 17 22 23 24 25

1955 to 2016 __ 4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12,13* 18, 19 26 28 29 30

Edited by Roger J Smith

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17.1 to the 1st

4.3 above the 61 to 90 average

3.6 above the 81 to 10 average

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18.6c to the 1st here, 5.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

Should see some drops in the coming days.

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16.5 to the 2nd

3.6 above the 61 to 90 average

2.8 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

Edited by Summer Sun
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For the first time ever in the records of CET competitions there is not a single guess below the 1961-1990 or 1971-2000 averages.

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My prediction is 15.5C, 1C above average. 

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15.9 to the 3rd

2.7 above the 61 to 90 average

2.3 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

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16.4c here to the 3rd, 2.9c above the 1981-2010 average. 

 

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15.2 to the 4th

2.0 above the 61 to 90 average

1.7 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

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14.6 to the 5th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

  • Like 1

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