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June 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Yesteday provisionally a daily record at 22.5, pushing one of 1846 (warmest June's) two daily records (21.7) off the table. That was cheeky. 

Looking at model output, would speculate that the current CET will begin to stabilize in the mid 16s now to weekend and might drift down slightly next week, good bet to finish around 16.2 perhaps. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield back up to 16.2C  +2.7C above normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Looking at the latest GFS it looks like a cool end to June if it's right. So it looks like 16.2C is the high and a slow steady drop off from now on.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
3 hours ago, The PIT said:

Looking at the latest GFS it looks like a cool end to June if it's right. So it looks like 16.2C is the high and a slow steady drop off from now on.

Indeed, we have peaked at 16.5c here to the 21st, 3.0c above the 1981-2010 average.

But its all downhill from here, with BBC predicting highs of 16c and lows of 10c next week which is below average for the time of year.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

It is rather rare (5.3% of all summers) for July to be cooler than both June and August. 

The 19 years when this occurred include 1676, 1685, 1724, 1743, 1758, 1786, 1798, 1802, 1840, 1842, 1846, 1858, 1877, 1910, 1919, 1930, 1940, 1965, and 1970.

No year had a July that tied with either June or August as coolest summer month, except for 1662 when all three were tied. 

This summer would be 47 years since the most recent such occurrence. The longest interval before this one was 39 years 1685 to 1724. The summer of 2007 came close but missed by 0.1 degree. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

16.6 to the 22nd

2.6 above the 61 to 90 average

2.5 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Still 16.2C +2.6C above normal and now the GFS is showing warmer weather so may edge up a little mainly due to warm nights.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

16.5 to the 23rd

2.6 above the 61 to 90 average

2.3 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
On 2017-6-20 at 16:34, Relativistic said:

Only four years have ever managed to record an average of 20C or above in June over a week-long period. The best 1976 managed was a mean of 21.7C from the 24th-30th, miles ahead of any other year. The years 1846 and 1878 both managed 20.4C as their highest week-long means, from the 16th-22nd and the 23rd-29th respectively, and also creeping into the list is the period 24th-30th in 1826, at 20.1C. Looks like 2017 may join this list.

Provisionally, the mean from the 16th-22nd is 19.9C (17.9C on the 22nd dragging the figure down), so just missing out. Corrections may see to this, however.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Interesting month. I suspect we are looking at 15.5-16 for the final corrected total essentially caused by one spell in an otherwise unexceptional month. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

No change in sunny Sheffield still at 16.2C +2.5C above normal

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Again no change 16.2C +2.4C above normal. Warm nights off setting any drop in average max temperature.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

16.5 to the 24th

2.5 above the 61 to 90 average

2.3 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

16.4c here to the 24th, 2.9c above the 1981-2010 average.

Expecting quite a drop as we go through the last week of June, possibly finishing around 2c above average.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

With only 20% of the month left (counting today) the provisional CET will finish on (66 + x)/5 where x is the mean temperature for the last six days of the month. If that were 14 for example, the CET will finish on 80/5 or 16.0. Then there would be a correction, probably fairly small as is usually the case. I think 15.7 to 16.3 is the most likely outcome.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
32 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

With only 20% of the month left (counting today) the provisional CET will finish on (66 + x)/5 where x is the mean temperature for the last six days of the month. If that were 14 for example, the CET will finish on 80/5 or 16.0. Then there would be a correction, probably fairly small as is usually the case. I think 15.7 to 16.3 is the most likely outcome.

I'm still in with a chance for this month.  Thought I had gone too low yet again.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

16.5 to the 25th

2.5 above the 61 to 90 average

2.3 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

The first drop here in Sunny Sheffield down to 16.1C +2.2C above normal

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

16.4 to the 26th

2.4 above the 61 to 90 average

2.1 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

16.2c here to the 26th, 2.7c above the 1981-2010 average.

Last 4 days looks like this here so a drop each very likely.

Capturelol.thumb.PNG.bf24a13405af240238cd41503cd8410e.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

I believe a final CET of 15.6C or above, which seems absolutely nailed on now, will mean this is the fifth successive month where the mean CET has been in the top 10% of the warmest years for the respective month.

This is a record shared I believe with Dec 2013 thru to April 2014, and with September 2006 thru to January 2007.

A very July warmer than 17.6C would make this a record breaking run we are on.

Seems remarkable that, since 1967 until last year, there had been more Junes in the coldest 10%, than the warmest 10%.  Up until 1991 there had been three times as many!  (6-2).  Finally this year brings the scores level over the last 50 years at six apiece.  The score is also set to become level at 9 apiece after 100 years....two years ago the 100 year score was 10-8 in favour of the coldest 10%

     

Edited by Timmytour
correcting typos
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Mild night prevented any drop in our average so still 16.1C +2.1C above average. Certainly a drop tomorrow unless tonight is very mild.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
On 6/22/2017 at 06:02, Roger J Smith said:

Yesteday provisionally a daily record at 22.5, pushing one of 1846 (warmest June's) two daily records (21.7) off the table. That was cheeky. 

Looking at model output, would speculate that the current CET will begin to stabilize in the mid 16s now to weekend and might drift down slightly next week, good bet to finish around 16.2 perhaps. 

This now says 20.1 in the estimated values table, so the 1846 record (for the 20th) now back on the table for the time being. Wait and see what the final verdict is on that. I'm sure I saw 22.5 there earlier.

Four consecutive days of 20 or higher (18th to 21st June) if verified at end of month (17th was estimated at 19.7 so this could go to five) has only been surpassed in 1846 (six days 15th-20th), and also six in 1976 (25th-30th, a spell which then went on another eight days). 

This year's spell was equalled in 1820 (25th-28th), 1878 (also 25th-28th), 1935 (22nd-25th), 1970 (8th to 11th). A four day period of 20.0 or higher started on 31 May and ended on 3 June in 1947 (this one would have gone six days except for 30th of May at 19.9), and another spell partially outside the month started 29 June and ended on 2 July in 2009. 

A near miss was the last five days of June 1826 which was held at three days when 29th reached 19.8 then back above 20 on the 30th.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

16.4 to the 27th

2.3 above the 61 to 90 average

2.1 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
9 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

This now says 20.1 in the estimated values table, so the 1846 record (for the 20th) now back on the table for the time being. Wait and see what the final verdict is on that. I'm sure I saw 22.5 there earlier.

The 21st is currently showing 21.7C (the 20th is showing 20.1C), but the 21st was definitely showing 22.5C a few days ago. It seems that the value for the 22nd has also been upped very slightly, from 17.9C to 18.0C.

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