June 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15.2C +1.9C above normal.

[Chris.R]

Up to 16.2°C here (+1.7) 

[NorthYorksWeather]

15.9c here, 2.4c above the 1981-2010 average.

Forecast remains well above average temps.

[Summer Sun]

15.6 to the 18th

1.8 above the 61 to 90 average

1.6 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 15.6C  +2.3C above normal. The actual CET figure looks a bit on the low side perhaps a rare upward correction coming. By next6 report it looks like it will be at 16C. Looking at the week ahead although the max would go up much the night time temps still seem very much on the warm side so a slow increase probably around 16.4C by the end of the week here. The record is 17.2C here and this could be under threat.

Edited June 19, 2017 by The PIT

[reef]

The CET looks very low to me too, considering here we're now on 17.2C (+3.5C) to the 19th.

Its looking likely we'll obliterate 2003 and possibly beat 1976.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Turns out yesterday was only 0.5C off setting a daily record.
If the max today is 29.2C or higher then we'll have a new provisional record for the 19th of 22.2C (max of 31C or higher for the warmest June daily mean on record!)

Edited June 20, 2017 by Nick L

[Lettucing Gutted]

I might be the only one to have guessed too high!

[BornFromTheVoid]

I hope it was obvious that I meant 29.2C on my previous post, rather than 19.2C!

[Nick L]

4 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

I hope it was obvious that I meant 29.2C on my previous post, rather than 19.2C!

Edited it for you BFTV  

[Summer Sun]

16.0 to the 19th

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

1.9 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yesterday fell just short of the record, 0.1C away. Might change after corrections though. It's also, provisionally, only the 19th June day on record with a mean of 22.0C or higher.

[NorthYorksWeather]

16.3c to the 19th here, 2.8c above the 1981-2010 average.

[Roger J Smith]

Just to clarify, the record for 19th at present is 22.1 C set in 2005. The comment above should probably read only the second 19th of June to reach 22.0 provisionally. Today's record is 21.7 from 1846, and for Wednesday (which could hit 34 C for a max in some places), record is 22.7 set in 1817, the only record high from that year, and fourth highest daily mean for any day in June. All time for June was 23.0 on 3rd in 1947, rather odd considering that 1st of July and most other days in early July have broken 24 degrees, perhaps this year (most likely Wednesday) will remove that oddity from the records (all of 1976's heat fell at or below 22.6 until that spell reached July).

The second warmest June day was 22.9 on 15th in 1858 and third place goes to 22.8 on 27th of 1826.

Thursday's record is 22.3 from 1941, could be threatened but likely to fall short, then Friday and Saturday will be trying to displace two records from 1935 (21.8, 22.0). Current models suggest those are probably safe although means could be 19-20, and the mean from Sunday 25th to the 30th appears to be about 15.0 in a much cooler Atlantic flow, so if we reach 17 by Saturday as appears possible, that would likely fall back to about 16.6 C. 

[Matthew.]

Yes somewhere between 16.2 and 16.6 looks likely to me. When's this crazy year going to change?

[BornFromTheVoid]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Just to clarify, the record for 19th at present is 22.1 C set in 2005. The comment above should probably read only the second 19th of June to reach 22.0 provisionally. Today's record is 21.7 from 1846, and for Wednesday (which could hit 34 C for a max in some places), record is 22.7 set in 1817, the only record high from that year, and fourth highest daily mean for any day in June. All time for June was 23.0 on 3rd in 1947, rather odd considering that 1st of July and most other days in early July have broken 24 degrees, perhaps this year (most likely Wednesday) will remove that oddity from the records (all of 1976's heat fell at or below 22.6 until that spell reached July).

The second warmest June day was 22.9 on 15th in 1858 and third place goes to 22.8 on 27th of 1826.

Thursday's record is 22.3 from 1941, could be threatened but likely to fall short, then Friday and Saturday will be trying to displace two records from 1935 (21.8, 22.0). Current models suggest those are probably safe although means could be 19-20, and the mean from Sunday 25th to the 30th appears to be about 15.0 in a much cooler Atlantic flow, so if we reach 17 by Saturday as appears possible, that would likely fall back to about 16.6 C. 

I'm not being clear once again What I meant was that out of all June days on record, yesterday was the 19th such day to record a mean of at least 22.0C

[Weather-history]

If June stays at 16.0 or above, it will be interesting to see to see how December turns out. Only two Junes with CETs of 16 or above have been followed by Decembers above 5C

There are a lot of such Junes followed by cold Decembers 

 

[Relativistic]

Only four years have ever managed to record an average of 20C or above in June over a week-long period. The best 1976 managed was a mean of 21.7C from the 24th-30th, miles ahead of any other year. The years 1846 and 1878 both managed 20.4C as their highest week-long means, from the 16th-22nd and the 23rd-29th respectively, and also creeping into the list is the period 24th-30th in 1826, at 20.1C. Looks like 2017 may join this list.

[The PIT]

Ker bump Sunny Sheffield on 16C +2.6C above normal. Only a small rise tomorrow. Very rare that the CET zone ends up equal or lower so I suspect no adjustment down and possibly one upwards.

[Roger J Smith]

This is another strange little fact, rarely does the warmest month also have the warmest day. In fact the warmest day in July, which is also the warmest of any month, did not even occur in an above-normal month (July 1948 had an average of 15.8 despite three record highs at the end of the month).

As of now, August 1995 and December 2015 hold that distinction of being warmest month with warmest day, and December only got into the club in 2015, the previous warmest Decembers did not manage it. 

Both the warmest January (1916 at 7.5) and February (1779 at 7.9) have no daily records at all. The mildest days were 10.5 on 1st Jan 1916 and 10.3 on 26th Feb 1779. For January, three years share the warmest day (11.6), those being 1834, 1932 and 2016. Those were 4th, 16th and 47th ranked (with ties). For February, the warmest day was 12.8 in 2004, which ended up tied 74th warmest.

In March, 1957 was warmest at 9.2 and had three daily records 10th-12th, warmest being 13.4 on 12th. The warmest March day previous to this year was 14.8 in 1777, which was tied 56th warmest March. 2017 produced 15.1 and was the 4th warmest March.

April 2011 was warmest at 11.8, and had daily records on the 6th (15.1) and 22nd (15.3). The warmest day in April was 19.7 in 1775, a month that was ranked tied 24th warmest.

May 1833 was warmest at 15.1 and set daily records on 15th (20.0) and 17th (19.7). That was the earliest 20.0 reading but the warmest day was 21.2 in 1780, a month that finished tied 32nd warmest.

June 1846 is currently warmest at 18.2 and set two daily records, 21.6 on 7th and 21.7 on 20th (today) which may not survive today's heat. The warmest June day currently is 23.0 from 1947, which turned cooler after a warm first week and finished on 15.5, tied 43rd warmest. It should be noted that 1676 had a mean of 18.0 and could have had a warmer day than 23.0. 

July 2006 (19.7) set three daily records, of which the most significant was 24.5 on 19th (25th and 26th also records). This was tied fourth warmest July day and sixth warmest on any date until 1st July 2015 pushed it down one rank. The warmest July day was 25.2 in 1948 which as noted occurred at the end of a cool month that ranked only tied 184th warmest out of 359 years. 

August 1995 (19.2) did manage the double, with the two warmest August days on 1st (24.9) and 2nd (24.6). A third daily record came along on the 20th.

September 2006 (16.8) had three record highs until one was eclipsed in 2016. The highest of them was 21.4 on the 21st which is by a good margin the warmest day after mid-September. However, the warmest day in the month was 22.2 in 1906, a month that was only tied 112th warmest; the heat was more attached to August 1906 which finished tied 58th warmest (31 Aug 1906 was also a record high). Once again, it should be noted that September 1727 at 16.6 has no daily data and may have produced a monthly record for all we know. 

October 2001 managed to become warmest at 13.3 despite setting no daily records (like Jan 1916 and Feb 1779), its warmest day was 16.0 on the 12th. The warmest overall was 20.2 on the first of October in 1985 (which finished tied 47th warmest), while 20.1 in 2011 (not a daily record as it also happened on 1st) followed by several more daily records left that month tied for ninth place at 12.6. 

November 1994 (10.1) managed only one record (12.7 on 19th) while the warmest day, 15.4, happened in 5th warmest November 1938. 

December 2015 (9.7) joined August 1995 in scoring the double with 13.1 on 19th the warmest day; previously that had been 12.9 in 1994, which is now tied 31st warmest. Before 2015 and its five daily record highs, the warmest Decembers were 1934 and 1974 (8.1) -- -- 1934 had a record of 11.8 on the 9th while 1974 failed to set a daily record, 11.3 on 2nd and 11.0 on 28th came closest. 

The average then is for the warmest month to set two daily record highs and to fall 1.7 deg short of the warmest day with two of twelve managing both warmest month and day. The average rank of the month with the warmest day (before 2015) was 36th warmest but that has edged up to 27th warmest with December 2015 and March 2017 counted in. If this June happens to set warmest day and finishes top five, then the average rank will become 24th. 

 

[Summer Sun]

16.2 to the 20th

2.3 above the 61 to 90 average

2.1 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

[Relativistic]

15 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

July 2006 (19.7) set three daily records, of which the most significant was 24.5 on 19th (25th and 26th also records). This was tied fourth warmest July day and sixth warmest on any date until 1st July 2015 pushed it down one rank. The warmest July day was 25.2 in 1948 which as noted occurred at the end of a cool month that ranked only tied 184th warmest out of 359 years. 

 

It's also worth noting that while the 1st July 2015 ranks as the sixth warmest day ever for the CET, July 2015, like July 1948 (15.8C), had a much more average overall CET (15.9C). July 2015 was much like July 1948 in reverse, with the very cool weather arriving in the final third.

When you look at daily CET values in July that were equal to or exceeded 24C, it's quite surprising that two of the top four fell in months that failed to record a CET of over 16C or over, especially given the context of the other months that made the list.

 

Edited June 21, 2017 by Relativistic

[The PIT]

No change for Sunny Sheffield still at 16C after the night came up 4.5C cooler than forecast by the Beeb. GFS was closer. At the moment we are 2.5C above normal. Should be the high point tomorrow and then a fall back if the GFS is right it's now showing a very cool Saturday for us. A good 15C degrees cooler from earlier this week.

[Roger J Smith]

It seems that July can crank out extremes at both ends from relatively normal months. The coldest July day in 1836 (average below 9 C) came during a month that averaged 15.4, almost as warm as July 1948. I was looking to see if the pattern of coldest months and coldest days was similar, the problem being that about half the coldest months (in the top ten range) occur before daily data started in 1772 so it would get complicated, but it looks fairly similar if you just consider the record since 1772 and ignore years before that. Coldest days are quite often in years around 5th to 10th coldest but never in the coldest month. The closest case was March, when 1845 had the coldest day and it ranks third coldest of the years with daily data, behind 1785 and 1883  (and 1674, 1748, years with no daily data).  April is similar, the two years (1799, 1917) that share coldest day are also tied fourth coldest for the daily data period. The coldest readings of January occurred in 1838 which was fifth coldest in the daily data set (and ninth coldest overall). December was similar, 1796 was fourth coldest of the daily data period and fifth coldest overall. August 1888 was a rather cool month but only around 20th coldest, and February 1816 was about 30th coldest of the years with daily data and tied 64th coldest overall. However, February 1895 which came close to tying for coldest day was ranked second coldest behind 1947. October 1895 was also a relatively cold month that ranks tied third coldest in the daily data section. The rest of the year seems to provide mostly faintly cold average values for the months that produce coldest days, and in fact September 1864 was a near average 13.3 and June 1795 which had a tied coldest day later in the month than the other case still managed to average 13.2, not far below June normals even in the Dalton. May 1861 was not quite that resilient but managed a rather unremarkable 10.4 average. November 1904 was tied with Nov 2010 at 5.2, another case of record cold following some rather mild weather earlier on. 

So, overall I conclude that the coldest day is related to the coldest month in about the same way as warmest day to warmest month, although if anything it seems less likely to overlap. Perhaps if we had daily data from 1740 or 1684 we might view this differently. 

[Summer Sun]

16.5 to the 21st

2.5 above the 61 to 90 average

2.4 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st