June 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts

[NorthYorksWeather]

15.4c to the 5th here, 1.9c above the 1981-2010 average.

Few more drops likely before it turns milder by the weekend.

[The PIT]

& days in so here goes Sunny Sheffield at 13.9C -0.6C below average.

[Summer Sun]

14.2 to the 6th

1.0 above the 61 to 90 average

0.7 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

[The PIT]

Correction to Sheffield average 13.9C +1.7C above normal for early June

[damianslaw]

Surprised the mean is quite as high as it is, expect a levelling off in the coming days and a rise by Sunday.. not expecting the average spell to extend through the middle of the month.. the warming phase will break at some stage, my bet in August!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 13.7C +1.3C above normal

[Summer Sun]

14.2 to the 7th

0.9 above the 61 to 90 average

0.6 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

Edited June 8, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Lettucing Gutted]

15 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised the mean is quite as high as it is, expect a levelling off in the coming days and a rise by Sunday.. not expecting the average spell to extend through the middle of the month.. the warming phase will break at some stage, my bet in August!

As the months go by in 2017, the odds are increasing on 2017 being the first calender year not to record any cool months.  Already we have had non-calender periods of more than 12 months spanning 2 years without any cool months.  The most notable examples are in 1959/1960 and 2002/2003 and 2004/2005 and 2006/2007 and 2007/2008.

Edited June 8, 2017 by Lettucing Gutted

[Summer Sun]

14.3 to the 8th

0.9 above the 61 to 90 average

0.7 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 13.9C +1.4C above normal.

[NorthYorksWeather]

14.6c here to the 8th, 1.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

Not much change likely in the coming few days, maybe nudging up slightly due to mild nights.

[Roger J Smith]

On 6/8/2017 at 05:18, Lettucing Gutted said:

As the months go by in 2017, the odds are increasing on 2017 being the first calender year not to record any cool months.  Already we have had non-calender periods of more than 12 months spanning 2 years without any cool months.  The most notable examples are in 1959/1960 and 2002/2003 and 2004/2005 and 2006/2007 and 2007/2008.

I guess you are using a recent 30-year average to calculate this, but also what's your definition of cool month, any negative anomaly or one greater than some criterion?

I had a look at the anomalies of all years relative to the means for the entire period 1659-2016, which are

JAN __ FEB __ MAR __ APR __ MAY __ JUN __ JUL __ AUG __ SEP __ OCT __ NOV __ DEC

 3.3 ___ 3.9 ___ 5.3 ____ 7.9 ___ 11.2 __ 14.3 __ 16.0 __ 15.6 __ 13.3 ___ 9.7 ___ 6.1 ___ 4.1

Against that set, one year (2005) managed to score a positive anomaly in all months, the closest being 0.1 against November. Second was 2002 which had one zero and all others negative (July was 16.0). Third place went to 1834, 1949 and 2004 (one month at -0.2, it was April for 1834, March for 1949 and July for 2004).

The recent warming is illustrated by this frequency count of below long-term-average months have occurred in the years 1989 to 2016 (2017 has added none of course). Out of 28 chances, the frequency of negative anomalies is:

JAN __ FEB __ MAR __ APR __ MAY __ JUN __ JUL __ AUG __ SEP __ OCT __ NOV __ DEC

__ 4 ___ 7 ____ 4 _____ 7 _____ 5 _____ 10 ___ 8 _____ 6 ____ 5 _____ 3 _____ 4 _____ 7

This is an average of 6 or about 22%, also there were nine months that were right on the long-term averages. 

Several years failed to produce even one above long-term average month. The most dismal was 1879 (March fell short by -0.6). Next came 1692 (April came closest at -0.4), then 1698 (September falling -0.3 short), 1799 (-0.2 in June), and 1695 when December was just -0.1 below. The lowest statistics from the post-1950 era was 1.0 in 1962 (Jan) and 1.1 in 2010 (July). 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 14.1C +1.5C above normal.

[Summer Sun]

14.4 to the 9th

0.9 above the 61 to 90 average

0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 14.2C  +1.5C above normal

[Summer Sun]

14.5 to the 10th

1.0 above the 61 to 90 average

0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

[NorthYorksWeather]

14.7c here to the 10th, 1.2c above the 1981-2010 average.

 

[Roger J Smith]

Years when June was warmest month of the year.

* tied with July

** tied with August

*** tied with both July and August

(by half-centuries starting 1659-1700, then 1701-50 etc, ending 2001-16)

1662*** 1672, 1676, 1683, 1685**

1711*, 1726

1755, 1785*  1786, 1798

1804, 1817, 1822, 1845, 1846

1858, 1866* 1877** 1889* 1896*

1920, 1922, 1940, 1950

1960, 1966, 1970

_______________________________________

There were 28 years out of 358 when June was warmest, of which 20 were outright, 5 were tied with July, 2 were tied with August and one was tied with July and August. (September was warmest month of only one year, 1890).

The gap of at least 47 years (1970 to 2017?) is now 17 years longer than the previous longest interval (30 years) between years when June was warmest (1755 to 1785) although it was 62 years from 1858 to 1920 if we only count years with an outright warmest June.

mean CET for Junes in years ending with 6 is 14.8, 0.5 higher than the overall average. 

 

Edited June 11, 2017 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

14.6 to the 11th

1.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.9 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

[Thundery wintry showers]

1966 has often intrigued me, as June was the warmest month of that year, but it was also the dullest June on record in Scotland by a fair margin.  It was also an unusually thundery month in many places.  Frequent cyclonic/southerly regimes appear to have been the culprit, and given the surprising lack of sunshine, there were probably a lot of slow-moving fronts over Scotland.

As for the current month, it seems very difficult to get a run of significantly below-average temperatures at the moment with plenty of anomalous warmth around the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, propagating up to the 850hPa level.  The GFS ensembles are consistently going 1-2C above the long-term normal out into Fantasy Island range.

Edited June 12, 2017 by Thundery wintry showers

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.3C +1.5C above normal

[Summer Sun]

14.6 to the 12th

1.0 above the 61 to 90 average

0.9 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

[NorthYorksWeather]

14.8c to the 12th, 1.3c above the 1981-2010 average.

The 5 days forecast indicates we will see some rises over the coming days.

[The PIT]

No change today for Sunny Sheffield still at 14.3C +1.5C above normal.

[reef]

A very warm start to the month here, currently on 16.0C (+2.3C) to the 13th.