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J10

Glastonbury 2017, 21-25 June

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4th June 2017

Medium Term (8-14 days)

Firstly looking at GFS. There remains good agreement for a deep area of Low Pressure to start next week, and while this clears, the remainder of next week, remains rather unsettled with winds from the West to South West. (same as yesterday)

Next weekend is currently projected to be unsettled with Low Pressure nearby, however with pressure set to rise into the following week.  At this stage looking a little bit more unsettled for the weekend before becoming more settled a few days before the Glastonbury festival.

NOAA Charts

The 6-10 chart continues the theme of a trough over the UK, however the 8-14 day chart increases pressure over the UK, indicating a possible return to more settled conditions in the run up to the festival. A very good sign and something we would like to see continued with going forward.

610day.03_0406.thumb.jpg.4828b33fb0a59764e7f10484b16ee666.jpg814day.03_0406.thumb.jpg.da626323e8904e21ad4742330650de02.jpg

Total Rainfall

Of the 4 runs, three of them have around 3 inches of rain predicted before the festival, whereas the 12Hz today is much drier with only 1 inch of rain in the next 16 days.

In each case though the majority of the rain in next week, and turning a little bit drier before the festival.

GFSOPUK12_384_49_0406.thumb.png.0db7a48a32a19daf6759f77878982adf.pngGFSOPUK06_384_49_0406.thumb.png.5272b9d31caf94622e533da982b1fe51.png

Ensembles

Very unsettled conditions expected from this Monday to the following Friday with moderate to heavy rain at times, however the 06Hz ensembles turns it a lot drier and more settled after this.

prcpWiltshire_0406.thumb.png.5871f819ac00f13fa1f6a74733e20d44.pngt850Wiltshire_0406.thumb.png.b42d53d1cb5614423be83aad0e5c7903.png

Longer Term (up to T+384 16 days)

Of the 4 daily charts, two show some degree of High Pressure for South Western parts of the UK, while the other two have no dominate weather pattern.  

GFSOPEU06_384_1_0406.thumb.png.0d39750846830445a8a9330ac3fa5026.pngGFSOPEU00_384_1_0406.thumb.png.6a4cf635d575f81f506a42d58d6bf615.png

Outlook

Tomorrow is the first day which has the gates opening in the 16 day GFS forecasting period, so it is very slowly getting closer.

Edited by J10
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5th June 2017

Medium Term (8-14 days)

Remaining mostly unsettled this week, with west to South West winds favoured towards the weekend, with Low Pressure in control especially Saturday with moderate rain currently modelled. Next week it steadily turns more settled as high Pressure builds in from the West to South West; currently fairly good inter model agreement with the ECM also supporting this development.

Thereafter model agreement breaks down but no real sign of massively unsettled weather at this stage.

NOAA Charts

610day.03_0506.thumb.jpg.e95adf9b8265f83ef08e7f9a785569f6.jpg814day.03_0506.thumb.jpg.08892f6553650ccb9e801c588bd1bf8d.jpg

A continuation of the theme, unsettled day 6-10, a bit more settled days 8-14.

Total Rainfall

The 4 runs now have total rainfall over the next 16 days, between 1 and 2 inches, this is partly due to today’s heavy rain now excluded from the runs, and also that the models have gone for a drier spell of weather than expected last week.

GFSOPUK18_384_49_0506.thumb.png.b1fd28c545069541c884b107fb30456b.pngGFSOPUK00_384_49_0506.thumb.png.81c114a6de7d49669acf46006005740b.png

Ensembles

Remaining unsettled conditions expected from Monday to Saturday, with heavy rain possible on Saturday. After this turning a lot more unsettled by the middle of the following week with High Pressure, however very little agreement in the run up to the festival.  

prmslWiltshire_0506.thumb.png.d6c6b5f6bd0e55ce18deaebb4aa73fec.pngprcpWiltshire_0506.thumb.png.2a87d3b38e33e607ae34eb0ae50e5f3b.png

Longer Term (up to T+384 16 days)

Of the 4 daily charts, three have some degree of High Pressure, the other has Low Pressure over southern parts of the UK [18Hz].

GFSOPEU18_384_1_0506.thumb.png.a3c13922b92438fb974f19a4fc66a14c.pngGFSOPEU06_384_1_0506.thumb.png.c7e58a396312262d1d3eae337abd42da.png

Edited by J10
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I was there in 2005 and 2007 both where shocking in different ways I dearly hope I won't need a boat .

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Things are looking pretty good unless I'm mistaken....Get these two weeks of 5hite weather out the way now just in time...

Edited by DevonStu

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does anyone have cumulative rainfall for the run up last year to compare to this year? LY the festival itself was OK(ish), but came on top of already saturated ground

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6th June 2017

Medium Term (8-14 days)

As per yesterday’s forecast - Remaining mostly unsettled this week, with west to South West winds favoured towards the weekend, with Low Pressure in control especially Saturday with moderate rain currently modelled.

Next week looking a little bit better with High Pressure building on top of the UK with each of the GFS operational runs supporting this by Wednesday, also good agreement on this from the ensembles, the ECM 12Hz also supportive on the High Pressure.

This High Pressure though generally modelled to last into the following weekend.

Thereafter model agreement breaks down but no real sign of massively unsettled weather at this stage.

NOAA Charts

610day.03_0606.thumb.jpg.6987dfded479ba1705d207609d7a36c6.jpg814day.03_0606.thumb.jpg.b557f85ea4ba4967060d510c67d323fe.jpg

Both charts show a trend to neutral conditions, moving away from the unsettled charts of a week ago but no High Pressure domination shown either.

Total Rainfall

Three of the 4 GFS runs has total rainfall just over 1 inch over the next 16 days. With the other just over 2 inches of rain. However over 16 days this is not that bad.

GFSOPUK12_384_49_0606.thumb.png.c78fcf5fcb24407930ad60569925eedd.pngGFSOPUK00_384_49_0606.thumb.png.815e4471c5c86da181d01f18e6f4620a.png

Ensembles

Conditions unsettled over the next few days with some rain at times, but not currently  as wet as previously suggested. Turning Much more settled next week, with Pressure rising to over 1020mb, from around the 13th-17th July. Thereafter average pressure dropping a little, but remaining mostly dry.

prcpWiltshire_0606.thumb.png.054c9db9e6ecda91694678a22273b838.pngprmslWiltshire_0606.thumb.png.8033de1d211cfb9ed22ab38c0d072dde.png

Longer Term (up to T+384 16 days)

Of the 4 daily charts, two have some degree of High Pressure, the other has Low pressure over or nearby the UK.

GFSOPEU00_372_1_0616.thumb.png.fa8a7690c9359e78eaf93649897ec8dd.pngGFSOPEU18_372_1_0616.thumb.png.4aaeeec87cff389484cf4c4b1a6f7f42.png

Edited by J10

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7th June 2017

Medium Term (8-14 days)

As per yesterday’s forecast - Remaining mostly unsettled this week, with west to South West winds favoured towards the weekend, with Low Pressure in control especially Saturday with moderate rain currently modelled.

Next week sees Higher Pressure ridging up from the South, however this is not quite as dominant as yesterday with some runs delaying the building of the High Pressure towards the High Pressure build towards the end of next week. However this may be a blessing as the weekends is looking more High Pressure dominated.

ECM tends to follow the theme of unsettled this week, before slowly turning more settled form the South and South West next week.

This High Pressure though generally modelled to last into the following weekend.

t850Wiltshire_1206.thumb.png.84c5f38c738dcfe0498bee5101b99ba8.pngprcpWiltshire_0706.thumb.png.8dcd6d919596476b14e9a54948d5cc68.png

The GFS dally runs tend to suggest High Pressure around the UK to start the festival, but with lowering confidence over subsequent days,  but nothing massively unsettled.  

GFSOPEU06_348_1_0706.pngGFSOPEU00_348_1_0716.png

NOAA Charts

Pressure continuing to rise on both charts with a ridge of High Pressure over the UK.

59387c0b47164_610day.03_0706(2).thumb.jpg.5fb5c887694bc92ae4e44a1fdf9718c4.jpg59387c0706205_814day.03_0706(2).thumb.jpg.e827546d1a9c619418c0adcbf8079341.jpg

Total Rainfall

Three of the 4 GFS runs has total rainfall around 15-20mm next 16 days. With the other around 35mm of rain, with the majority of this set to fall by end of this coming weekend, It is looking like a pretty dry run up to the festival.

GFSOPUK06_384_49_0706.pngGFSOPUK00_384_49_0706.png

Ensembles

Conditions unsettled over the next few days with some moderate rain at times, however after this looking much drier until the festival, and largely dry.

Average Pressure rising to over 1020mb by early next week, and remaining there for over a week, and dropping slightly to 1015m by the end of the run.

Thoughts

Currently looking quite good for at least a good build up to the festival weather wise.

Edited by J10
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do you tent it moki or have you got a posh caravan thing? 

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Just now, Dami said:

do you tent it moki or have you got a posh caravan thing? 

I do posh camping on top of the hill rather good to :)

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so your ok if you get a thunderstorm?:D

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8th June 2017

Medium Term (8-14 days)

Slowly turning more settled for Southern parts of the UK with High Pressure rising albeit with a westerly flow to start the week. At this stage it seems likely that this High Pressure will build over the UK by the end of next week. This High Pressure though generally modelled to last into the following weekend.

In the immediate run up to the Glastonbury, there is a wide variety of options with no real certainty.

GFSOPEU18_324_1_0806.thumb.png.464d433691c718b5f5c92f3c57333776.pngGFSOPEU12_312_1_0806.thumb.png.f6579d4018f66f7e661afa277364560d.png

After the gates open

Three of the runs shows High Pressure over or ridging over the UK, over the course of the festival, three of the runs have low pressure at some stage, with one keeping High Pressure in control.

NOAA Charts

6-10 day charts shows dominant High pressure over the UK, while the 8-14 day charts shows a ride of High Pressure over the UK.

5939adf7b6289_610day.03_0806(2).thumb.jpg.6134face0a63211bcf85bbd51222e325.jpg5939adf379368_814day.03_0806(2).thumb.jpg.c216b1f59d28933877207d5154155707.jpg

Total Rainfall

GFSOPUK18_384_49_0806.thumb.png.25860b1754f1fc2b87e3c44e05183ef5.pngGFSOPUK12_384_49_0806.thumb.png.aa1efc23ada0447ca7593ce2ed90ae48.png

All 4 GFS runs have total rainfall for the Glastonbury area below 25mm over the next 16 days, so currently looking pretty dry. However slightly further north is much wetter, so a slight word of caution.

Ensembles

After this weekend, pressure rising with pressure over 1025mb, this only slowly dropping back with more uncertainty around the festival start, average pressure back to 1015mb.

Rainfall amounts are looking low for the duration of the run.

prcpWiltshire_0806.thumb.png.dabddff22790757557ed36c2aa442037.pngprmslWiltshire_0806.thumb.png.d004362b293957e88af733f72e20c6ae.pngt850Wiltshire_0806.thumb.png.06470b5a33197c09e4c2ea48abe5e9b5.png

Thoughts

Currently looking quite good for at least a good build up to the festival weather wise.

Edited by J10
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18 hours ago, J10 said:

Thoughts

Currently looking quite good for at least a good build up to the festival weather wise.

Wooo! It's my 40th birthday and so far Tresemme has lost her majority and the Glastonbury weather is looking great :)

Just one more week... this time next Friday I'll be onsite.... please let it be a sunny dry festival....

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9th June 2017

Medium Term (8-14 days)

Slowly turning more settled for Southern parts of the UK next week with High Pressure ridging up from the South West, with a west to South Westerly flow. By the end of Next week, High Pressure bang on top of the UK (1025mb).

The majority of the runs now have High Pressure for the run up to the festival, some with the High Pressure to the NW and a cool Northerly flow, so mostly dry if rather cool for June.

After the gates open

Three of the runs show High Pressure over or ridging over the UK for the Wednesday. Most of the GFS keep things mostly settled for the festival, but some Low pressure nearby at times.

GFSOPEU18_312_1_0906.pngGFSOPEU12_288_1_0906.png

NOAA Charts

High Pressure over the UK on both charts.

593afec5419ee_610day.03_0906(2).thumb.jpg.0b1b3d76b54e26c50d4f177cca388234.jpg593afec0ad71f_814day.03_0906(2).thumb.jpg.d5ea385bda7261d263acaf79d629320d.jpg

Total Rainfall

All 4 GFS runs have total rainfall for the Glastonbury area below 15mm over the next 16 days, so all currently looking dry for the run-up to the festival.

GFSOPUK06_384_49_0906.thumb.png.aaca3bb6e032eb188c4aced8dc08711a.pngGFSOPUK18_384_49_0906.thumb.png.143e7501823c731f39e09ed05072291c.png

Ensembles

After this weekend, pressure rising with pressure over 1025mb, and pressure remaining above or around 1020mb until the 23rd June, perhaps drooping a little over the festival weekend.

Rainfall amounts are looking very low for the duration of the run.

prcpWiltshire_0906.thumb.png.afe0d022cb62d77b9432769c2457a763.pngprmslWiltshire_0906.thumb.png.fc6d094ee04fa9f1d5305d159196fcca.png

Thoughts

Currently looking good for at least a good build up to the festival weather wise. Some uncertainty over the festival weekend itself, but generally a good outlook.

Edited by J10
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10th June 2017

Medium Term (8-14 days)

Slowly turning more settled for Southern parts of the UK next week with High Pressure ridging up from the South West, with a west to South Westerly flow. By the end of Next week, High Pressure over the South of the UK (over 1025mb) with slight orientation differences on models runs.

The majority of the runs now have High Pressure for the run up to the festival, some with the High Pressure to the NW and a cool Northerly flow, so mostly dry if rather cool for June.

After the gates open

The models now have increasing confidence of High Pressure over the UK or at least for Western areas for the Wednesday. Most of the charts have High Pressure remaining around western areas for much of the time, with the risk of some lower pressure over the weekend. Generally though looking pretty dry, however it might be on the cool side for June with winds possible from the North or North West.

NOAA Charts

The 6-10 run has High Pressure over Southern parts of the UK, while the 8-14 chart has more neutral conditions.

610day.03_1006.thumb.jpg.a9921633769e809f598e8efe45b0bca4.jpg814day.03_1006.thumb.jpg.afe139d8d2a5763772ade5b21e253662.jpg

Total Rainfall

Two of the 4 runs have under 10mm of rain for Glastonbury between now and the end of the festival, while the other 2 has around 25mm, around half of which falling through the festival.  

GFSOPUK18_372_49_1006.thumb.png.a49f03e5ee090a25afbed939bc453024.pngGFSOPUK06_372_49_1006.thumb.png.c531571b89108e284768dbc26e0b1248.png

Ensembles

After this weekend, pressure rising with pressure over 1025mb, however the 12Hz run has pressure dropping quicker than previously suggested.

Rainfall amounts are looking very low for the duration of the run. Temps remain uncertain but perhaps on the cold side.

prcpWiltshire_1006.thumb.png.9119642ff5296cd35db678ed2c6d3b88.pngprmslWiltshire_1006.thumb.png.91d363a9462261d09ee2476f4508e3bc.png

Thoughts

Things settled looking pretty decent for the build up to the festival, a slight concern that the ensembles are weaker, however at least the operational runs keep things pretty dry. Currently looking good for at least a good build up to the festival weather wise. Some uncertainty over the festival weekend itself, but generally a good outlook.

 

GFSOPEU00_276_1_1006.png

GFSOPEU18_276_1_1006.png

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11th June 2017 (to be updated later)

Run up to the festival

For the coming week, pressure slowly ridging up from the South, keeping things mostly dry. As shown below despite the High Pressure in the South towards the weekend, not as dominant as once expected/forecasted.

GFSOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.569edcc57fb6e3d2a3d4b3d97b386cda.png

In the build to Glastonbury signs of Pressure staying high to the West of the UK, perhaps with a Northerly flow and more unsettled conditions further East, so while rather cool, staying mostly dry for SW parts of the UK.

After the gates open

The models now have decent confidence of High Pressure over the UK or at least for Western areas for the Wednesday. The 00Hz GFS run has things tuning somewhat more unsettled on the Tuesday but this remains an outlier at the moment.

Over the weekend, things are less clear cut with some models showing a little rain at times, but probably not too bad and other keep things completely dry. Again temps looking a little on the cool side.

GFSOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.baac3165a86b42346fcc5157f3f6b3ba.pngGFSOPEU00_252_1_1106.thumb.png.24875e222ee8281f6847c55c207c2c1e.png

NOAA Charts

No Change from yesterday , High Pressure dominated day 6-10, neutral days 8-14.

814day.03_1106.thumb.jpg.bd19f2b6b962404e08e1a2f4c9722ae3.jpg610day.03_1106.thumb.jpg.2d8d9caa2fc63e0c6eb7c089fc78be9f.jpg

Total Rainfall

All four GFS runs have total rainfall under 20mm between now and the end of the festival.

GFSOPUK06_348_49_1106.thumb.png.6166f4a00e3d4ccf3ed0b75cacba8b47.pngGFSOPUK00_348_49_1106.thumb.png.fe1c2316eea7c07fdd251de234feac10.png

Ensembles

After this weekend, pressure rising (after from a brief blip midweek) with pressure over 1025mb by Next Sunday. Thereafter pressure drops back a bit to average 1015mb, but still staying mostly dry, although some ensembles have rain at times over the weekend.

Rainfall amounts are looking very low for most of the run.

prcpWiltshire_1106.thumb.png.d855486b5d50277d9ea0836a8b93de96.pngprmslWiltshire_1106.thumb.png.32a8a0efb4f763076ab1963cdecd9b39.png

12Hz Ensembles

prcpWiltshire_1106_06.thumb.png.55eae37247e7837467716bc59c4c654f.pngprmslWiltshire_1106_12.thumb.png.6132688715dad60926bff7d41d389ae7.png

Agrees with Pressure dropping as per 06Hz tun, rainfall a bit lighter though.

Thoughts

Things settled looking pretty decent for the build up to the festival, and ground conditions are looking good to very good on being dry when the gates open.

Over the weekend, things are not so clear cut, but no washout conditions are on the cards, and it may stay dry during the festival.

Edited by J10
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