Glastonbury 2017, 21-25 June

[DevonStu]

J10......Thanks for the updates....But where are your usual mudbath / dust bowel O'meter...

[Doug Killen]

Loving these updates, but is there any reason why the ensembles charts are for Wiltshire?  Glastonbury is in Somerset 

[J10]

12th June 2017

Run up to the festival

For the coming week, pressure slowly ridging up from the South, keeping things mostly dry, perhaps with a slight blip on Thursday, but rainfall amounts should be small. Pressure building over Southern areas by and over the weekend, but not as dominant as originally hoped.  There is now good model agreement on this.

Remaining mostly dry and settled before the festival, with High Pressure nearby.

After the gates open

High Pressure is likely to be around the UK on the Wednesday, but the current theme is for High Pressure to slowly weaken over the festival, with an increased chance of some low pressure towards the end of the festival, and with the risk of a little rain.

However at this stage rainfall amounts remaining fairly low.

So pretty decent conditions seemingly likely for the festival, with temps probably on the cool side.

NOAA Charts

No Change from yesterday , High Pressure dominated day 6-10, neutral days 8-14.

Total Rainfall

Two of the runs have rainfall under 10mm until now and the end of festival, the other 2 have rainfall under 20mm.

Ensembles - for Somerset

After this weekend, pressure rising (after from a brief blip midweek) with pressure over 1020mb by Next Sunday, remaining above 1020mb on the Wednesday, and then slowly dropping over the festival, however this ensembles average splits those runs keeping it dry and settled and those truing it quite unsettled.

Rainfall amounts are looking very low for most of the run.

Thoughts

Things settled looking pretty decent for the build up to the festival, and ground conditions are looking good to very good on being dry when the gates open – Same as yesterday.

Over the weekend, things are not so clear cut, with some rain possible but no washout conditions are on the cards, and it may stay dry during the festival.

It was mentioned yesterday about a mudbath/dust-bowl gauge

Gates Opening 21st June (0 = Mudbath 10 = Dustbowl ) = 8

Over the weekend = 6

[J10]

7 hours ago, Doug Killen said:

Loving these updates, but is there any reason why the ensembles charts are for Wiltshire?  Glastonbury is in Somerset 

Oops. Now amended

[Mokidugway]

So hoping for straw grass and not a mud fest,

[PompeyFC]

Cannot say I am impressed with either the 0z from overnight or the 6z, hope the 6z is an outlier 

[J10]

13th June 2017

Medium Term (8-14 days)

Apart a slight blip on Thursday, with some patchy rain possible, looking dry and settled until the start of the festival.

In a bit more detail, Pressure steadily building from the South peaking just below 1030mb on Saturday. By Next Monday, High Pressure edging away a little but always the highest pressure to the South and West, (1020+ mb), winds expected to be from a general North Westerly direction. Thereafter some model uncertainly, the High Pressure generally weakening, but to what extent.

After the gates open

High Pressure is likely to be around the UK on the Wednesday, with either High Pressure directly over the UK, or with a ridge of high Pressure. The current theme is for High Pressure to weaken over the festival. At this stage there appears to be an increasing risk of some rain over the course of the festival, with some model runs having Low Pressure over the UK over the festival weekend. However the scenario of the 06Hz is still the worst case.

NOAA Charts

6-10 day shows High Pressure to the west of the UK, the 8-14 day run neutral conditions over the UK.

Total Rainfall

All 4 GFS runs, have under 4mm of rain between now and the middle of Friday during the festival, so a dry run and a dry start to the festival looks very likely.

However for the remainder of the festival, two keep it dry, with one of the GFS forecasts suggesting a further 5mm and another around 20mm of rainfall. So uncertainty about the rainfall expected over the festival duration.

Ensembles

Pressure rising after midweek with pressure over 1025mb by Next Sunday, dropping to around  1015mb by the Wednesday, and then slowly dropping over the festival, however this ensembles average splits those runs keeping it dry and settled and those turning it quite unsettled.

This ties in with the different amount of rainfall expected over the weekend.

Rainfall amounts are looking very low for most of the run, with a little more variability over the festival weekend.  

Thoughts

The same theme as recent days, after Thursday, looking dry and mostly settled until the start of the festival. As a result ground conditions are expected to be dry when the gates open.

Over the weekend, things are not so clear cut, with some rain possible the odds remain against washout conditions are on the cards, and it may stay dry during the festival.

Mudbath/dust-bowl gauge (0 = Mudbath 10 = Dustbowl )

Gates Opening 21st June = 8.5 (from 8  ) [Still looking dry and a day closer, so increasing confidence]

Over the weekend = 5.5 (from 6) [Some wet runs and some dry runs]

Edited June 13, 2017 by J10

[bamberd]

And here's me thinking it was going to be plain sailing!

[drm]

1 hour ago, bamberd said:

And here's me thinking it was going to be plain sailing!

never plain sailing at Glastonbury sadly ive done 6 ,05 the mighty friday storm,07 just miserable cold and wet,09 hot and thundery,2010 wow dustbowl 5days of hot blue skies 2013 thundery but warmish think the lead up is looking dry always good chance of showers saturday/sunday warm. the gfs seems to be improving as runs go on the ecm is keen to go the route of phase2 mjo not a desirable phase 

Edited June 14, 2017 by drm

[bamberd]

10 minutes ago, drm said:

never plain sailing at Glastonbury sadly ive done 6 ,05 the mighty friday storm,07 just miserable cold and wet,09 hot and thundery,2010 wow dustbowl 5days of hot blue skies 2013 thundery but warmish think the lead up is looking dry always good chance of showers saturday/sunday warm. the gfs seems to be improving as runs go on the ecm is keen to go the route of phase2 mjo not a desirable phase

Indeed. I've been the last 6 years and I think I've experienced every condition possible. Last year was particularly bad underfoot. Never ruined it for me though!

[Paul Lewis]

thanks j10 ...id take this

[drm]

12 minutes ago, bamberd said:

Indeed. I've been the last 6 years and I think I've experienced every condition possible. Last year was particularly bad underfoot. Never ruined it for me though!

indeed its the mud at first thats hard to cope with   then the drying process and the gloop kids wellies in the mud but no sign of the child lol then it  becomes to rock hard 

[J10]

14th June 2017

Medium Term (8-14 days)

High Pressure starting to ridge over the UK on Friday, with High Pressure peaking at around 1028mb in the South on Saturday.

The GFS then suggests a slow weakening of the High Pressure, with the Highest pressure moving away to the West but still with High Pressure lingering over the UK until (at least) the Wednesday, with the Centre of the High over Northern parts of the UK.

The ECM is similar until the start of Next week, when it moves the High Pressure over the UK, away to the East by the Wednesday, with a risk of low pressure edging in from the West / South West.

After the gates open

GFS – High Pressure is set to be over the UK on Wednesday, keeping things quite settled. Thereafter the model disagreements start, todays’12 Hz keeps High Pressure over the UK and things settled and dry for the festival (rainfall under 2mm until end of festival). The 06Hz run keeps High Pressure until the Sunday, when some patchy rain edges in from the west (6mm of rain forecast).

The 00Hz is the most unsettled with heavy rain edging in on Saturday with 10-15mm of rain expected in total.

 

 

Last night’s 18Hz runs has it turning a little unsettled over the weekend but only forecasting 3mm of rain.

ECM – Both runs turn things unsettled for the festival, the 00Hz has it unsettled in the Wednesday with (weak) low pressure thereafter, the 12Hz run has it high Pressure lingering on a bit longer on the Wednesday, but has deep low pressure over the UK for the Saturday.

NOAA Charts

To be updated later

Ensembles

Pressure rising after midweek with pressure over 1025mb by Next Sunday, dropping to around  1015mb by the Wednesday, and then slowly dropping over the festival, however this ensembles average splits those runs keeping it dry and settled and those turning it quite unsettled.

This ties in with the different amount of rainfall expected over the weekend,

Rainfall amounts are looking very low for most of the run, with a little more variability over the festival weekend.  

Thoughts

The same general theme as recent days, after Thursday, looking dry and mostly settled until the start of the festival. As a result ground conditions are expected to be dry when the gates open, however ECM does turn things a little bit more unsettled quicker, but still probably dry to start the festival.

Over the weekend, things are not so clear cut, with unsettled conditions of some sort a bit more likely, however rain amounts are difficult to pin down, and most runs are against heavy rain for the festival. 

Mudbath/dust-bowl gauge (0 = Mudbath 10 = Dustbowl )

Gates Opening 21st June = 8 (from 8.5  ) [Still looking dry but ECM slightly concerning]

Over the weekend = 5.5 (from 5.5) [A mixed bag, and while unsettled most runs don't forecast that much rain]

Edited June 14, 2017 by J10

[J10]

The images will be located in the main blog which is here http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=8226;sess=

15th June 2017

Festival Run Up

High Pressure starting to ridge over the UK on Friday, with High Pressure peaking at around 1028mb in the South on Saturday.

The models suggest the High Pressure lasts over the weekend, before slowly weakening into next week, with the main area of High Pressure to the West and a ridge of High Pressure over the UK.

By around Tuesday, the ridge of High Pressure is forecast to split with a new cell of high Pressure forming over the UK or to the East of the UK.

So a settled run-up to the festival seemingly likely.

After the gates open

Wednesday the 21st starts with high Pressure centred over Northern or North Eastern parts of the UK, so probably a settled day. However the exact location of the High Pressure is important going forward as some models suggest the High Pressure to the North East of the UK with the risk of low pressure trying to edge in from the South West over subsequent days.

At the moment, the majority view is staying mostly settled over the UK until the Friday, with only the GFS 06Hz turning it unsettled sooner with heavy rain on the Thursday.

After the music starts

For Friday through the weekend GFS and ECM have different ideas.

ECM – Both runs have it turning Unsettled early Saturday, with Low pressure to the North and north West of the UK, so turning a little cooler and showery conditions most likely.

But neither run looks that wet.

GFS – The 12hz run has high Pressure slowly moving away on the Saturday, with westerly winds edging in by the Sunday, Total rainfall 1-5mm, Temps low 20s, perhaps mid 20s Friday and Saturday.

The 18hz run has High Pressure slowly moving away early Sunday, so staying mostly dry with rainfall 1-3mm, with South Easterly. Temps generally low 20s.

The 06Hz has SW winds by the Thursday with Low pressure to the West of the UK, and fronts edging Eastwards on the Thursday and at times over the weekend, Total rainfall 15-20mm.

The 00Hz run keeps High Pressure to the NE, but with low pressure edging in from the West /South West on the Friday, with a front slowly edging Eastwards on the Saturday. Total rainfall 5-10mm.

NOAA Charts

To be updated later

 

Ensembles

06Hz Ensembles

Pressure peaking around over 1028mb by Sunday with good ensembles agreement. Thereafter, pressure dropping back to just below 1020mb by Wednesday, thereafter a split between those keeping pressure above 1020mb and those dropping to around 1010mb, the 06Hz op goes for the more unsettled cluster.

The rainfall amount form the ensembles are quite small, and the 06Hz run is an outlier in terms of the heavy rain on the Thursday.

Thoughts

Currently looking dry and mostly settled until the start of the festival. As a result ground conditions are expected to be dry when the gates open, with the ECM now also suggesting a dry settled run up.

Over the weekend things are not so clear cut, with some unsettled conditions possible at times over the weekend bringing some rain or showers at times, but as ever some uncertainty.

Even more uncertainty as to the temps, with some GFS runs having temps in the low perhaps even mid 20s.

Edited June 15, 2017 by J10

[Zippy]

I'd bank this now tbh. 

Great work J10. 

[Paul Lewis]

1 hour ago, Zippy said:

I'd bank this now tbh. 

Great work J10. 

yes thanks again ...sounding fairly promising on the whole

[J10]

Link to full blog -> http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=8231;sess=

16th June 2017

Festival Run Up

High Pressure building over the UK this weekend, this lasting into next week, and only slowly weakening before Wednesday, so a settled and dry run-up to the festival seemingly likely.

After the gates open

Wednesday the 21st starts with High Pressure centred over Northern or North Eastern parts of the UK, so probably a settled day, with winds from the South East, some sunshine expected temps 22-25c.  Any lower pressure to the west should be kept at bay. Over the following days, the Pressure is set to diminish and over away to the East allowing lower pressure to slowly edge in from the west.

ECM – Both runs suggests, a fairly gentle Westerly flow by Friday, before it turning unsettled over the Weekend, with Low Pressure to the North or North East of the UK, so turning a little cooler and showery conditions most likely. Of the two runs, the 12Hz run looks the most threatening in terms of rainfall.

GFS – The 12Hz run has High Pressure edging away by the Thursday, to be replaced by a West to North Westerly flow, with pressure around 1015mb. While showers are possible it is likely to be fairly sheltered with total rainfall 2mm, Temps mid 20s Wednesday and Thursday, low 20s thereafter.  

The 06Hz run develops the Low Pressure quicker than the other runs, with some rainfall approaching SW areas by the Friday. Low Pressure is set to be over the UK for the weekend, with outbreaks of rain possible from time to time total rainfall 10-15mm, Temps mid 20s Wednesday and Thursday, high teens/ low 20s thereafter.  

The 00Hz run has a very slight Westerly/North Westerly  wind for the Thursday to Saturday, slightly developing Low pressure over the weekend, with total rainfall 1-2mm, Temps mid 20s throughout, possible reaching 26/27c over the weekend.

The 18Hz run keeps the high Pressure over the UK until the end of Friday, with low pressure then pushing in from the West over the weekend, with some patchy rain possible with total rainfall 3-10mm, Temps low to mid 20s, much cooler Sunday mid teens.

Ensembles

Both sets of pressure Ensembles show the pressure dropping from around 1020mb on the Wednesday, to just above 1010mb by the Sunday, the 06Hz op run a bit of an outlier in terms of the Low pressure.

In terms of rainfall, many of the ensembles are pretty dry while some show a little rain like the 06Hz operational, but the majority are a little drier.

The 850Hpa charts show a decent agreement of 15c for the Wednesday to Friday, (25c ground temp) before dropping back to closer to 10c over the weekend (Low 20s)

Thoughts

Currently looking dry and mostly settled at the start of the festival. As a result ground conditions are expected to be dry when the gates open, with some sunny conditions and temps low to mid 20s.

Over the weekend things are not so clear cut, with some unsettled conditions possible at times over the weekend, with the ECM continuing to show more of an unsettled theme compared to the GFS.  So some rain or showers at times, but as ever some uncertainty.

Temps may drop a little over the weekend but low 20s are still possible.

 

 

Edited June 16, 2017 by J10

[deadstillstanding]

Thanks J10. I'm got onsite about 5pm and it's lovely. Very sunny evening with a lovely sunset. The tracks are dry and dusty, the grass is lush and the ground is a bit firm but not at all hard.

Looking forward to a great week whatever the weekend after brings.

[J10]

Latest Forecast Here

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=8234;sess=

Still looking pretty good, still waiting for the catch.

 

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, J10 said:

Latest Forecast Here

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=8234;sess=

Still looking pretty good, still waiting for the catch.

 

Don't say that ,skew T charts look apocalyptic ,hopefully further east 

[deadstillstanding]

2 hours ago, J10 said:

Latest Forecast Here

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=8234;sess=

Still looking pretty good, still waiting for the catch.

 

This forecast. Please. This one.

[Zippy]

3 hours ago, J10 said:

Latest Forecast Here

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=8234;sess=

Still looking pretty good, still waiting for the catch.

 

Scorchio. 

[snow fest]

Typical but not complaining, first time at Glastonbury this year and I bought the Mrs some stupidly priced Hunter Wellys for xmas for the festival. Never mind, more than happy with the forecast and thanks for the updates!

[jonf]

6 hours ago, snow fest said:

Typical but not complaining, first time at Glastonbury this year and I bought the Mrs some stupidly priced Hunter Wellys for xmas for the festival. Never mind, more than happy with the forecast and thanks for the updates!

It can still get muddy in places (water standpipes, toilets), even at dustbowl festivals.

[Fussy Onion]

Looks good but wellies still coming with me as we all know that the weather at Glastonbury has a mind of its own. It cannot be trusted