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Glastonbury 2017, 21-25 June


J10
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So what are your thoughts about the Glastonbury festival 2017, will it be a washout or a heatwave, or as is often the case a mixture of the two, often on the same day.

This years forecasts will start in the next week or so and run all the way until the festival (after last years blip).

 

 

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Bang on time as always J10. I don't remember a blip last year?? We got some cracking info in the lead up. 

The weather in the last couple of weeks was making me a bit anxious that we'd get a very similar situation to last year. 2016 was drier than average for festival weekend, but the very heavy rain in the weeks beforehand made it one of the muddiest I've attended I think.

However it looks promising over the pilton area this week, and if that generally positive trend continues in the lead up to solstice I will be pretty hopeful. 

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Location: Devon

    Last year was mostly a lesson in how much the preceding week matters. If anything we should be looking at a forecast for a fortnight rather than the five days so that we know what the ground will be like.

    Great to have your Glastonbury forecasts back @J10, can't wait for the first one.

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    First Look 30th May 2017

    Here is the first look for Glastonbury 2017; I have deliberately avoided the longer term approaches this year.

    At this stage I will concentrate on the Operational GFS runs, the GEFS ensembles and the NOAA pressure which can be a good guide towards 6-10 day and 8-14 days ahead.

    In reality we are too far ahead of the festival to get realistic forecasts, hence the later start this year.

    Medium Term (8-14 days)

    Firstly looking at GFS. The current theme is for the start of June to be rather unsettled and mobile from the west, Winds generally set to be from a Westerly to South Westerly direction, with ridge of High Pressure from time to time, but no long settled spells appear likely.

    The NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook both show a trough over the UK, indicating unsettled weather.  

    814day_03.thumb.jpg.5d5df80260e5dd812469b218b48e01f6.jpg610day_03.thumb.jpg.285eac28bb08e8d6c97f1696f00e3e15.jpg

    Ensembles

    Again shows a rather unsettled theme, with some precipitation possible at times over the next 14 days or so. Perhaps a slight trend towards rising pressure towards the end of the forecast run.

    prmslWiltshire.thumb.png.f19ee9df61f93e7719a9b1ed23cdecd6.pngprcpWiltshire.thumb.png.d52a3dff89847940cda354c4711670d8.png

    End of GFS Run (upto T+384 16 days - Showing forecast for 14-15 June)

    Rather mixed with 2 runs showing High Pressure, 1 with a ridge of HP to the east and 1 with low pressure nearby.

    GFSOPEU18_384_1.thumb.png.55d75c8ee792f63252dfae026c6cde54.pngGFSOPEU00_384_1.thumb.png.4c483937ff4d2c63d1a8185277e3924f.png

    GFSOPEU06_372_1.thumb.png.346489d9e6613bfb0393061db31ca686.pngGFSOPEU12_372_1.thumb.png.b4e192b3d325303482c1340414c2775d.png

    Initial thoughts - So perhaps a getting better scenario as we build up to Glastonbury, but with over 3 weeks to go, there will be up and downs along the way.

    This time next week we will be getting into the range of the 16 days forecast being the start of Glastonbury.

    Edited by J10
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    Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

    Big thanks for this (as every year) J10! I'm belatedly out of Netweather hibernation ...

    We'll be on site from Sunday 18th to Tuesday 27th June, so a non mudbath for an extyended period would be a big bonus ...

    Needless to say I'll be following this thread carefully, and the Model OPutput thread also ...

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    31st May 2017 update

    Today’s update will be very much in the same style and format as yesterday.

    Medium Term (8-14 days)

    Firstly looking at GFS. The current theme to start June remains similar to yesterday with low pressure or unsettled weather over the UK over much of the next 2 weeks. A slight change to yesterday is the the Low Pressure may become rooted to the UK as opposed to a more mobile pattern showed yesterday, is this occurred rainfall totals may be increased.

    Not a washout by any means but rather disappointing for early June,

    NOAA Charts

    No real change from yesterday with the The NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook both show a trough over the UK, indicating unsettled weather. 

    610day.03_3105.thumb.jpg.7a183d150945c55a29adac0fbd74931c.jpg814day.03_3105.thumb.jpg.7ddc2637b3154b1d2ec2c22fa5c6174f.jpg

    Ensembles

    Very much a continuation of rather damp and unsettled over the next couple of weeks, one bit of good news though being the trend of pressure rising towards the end of the run.

    prcpWiltshire_3105.thumb.png.3983b1190d74be77084204d0ad002bbf.pngprmslWiltshire_3105.thumb.png.ea08d02342e1d0fd66ba62ee9e491457.png

    Accumulated Rainfall Next 16 days

    This charts shows the accumulated rainfall over the next 16 days [GFS 06Hz run] and this indicates 2-3 inches of rain in that times for the Glastonbury area. The 12Hz run was much wetter but yesterdays 18Hz run a lot drier, so this is around the midpoint.

    GFSOPUK06_384_49.thumb.png.53edc4c86e1f67ed5cdd87d8c0b79ebd.png

    Longer Term (upto T+384 16 days)

    One shows Low Pressure bang over the UK (12Hz today), the others a batlegorund between High Pressures and Low Pressures.

    GFSOPEU18_384_1_3005.thumb.png.5293719c574f736c0151b3a623280794.pngGFSOPEU00_384_1_3105.thumb.png.ac190a29690c23688e5c3e0e0a64ceaa.pngGFSOPEU06_372_1_3115.thumb.png.fdf0e19779fdf2d901cd65b567e181cc.pngGFSOPEU12_372_1_3115.thumb.png.c2f271ff88c7fffc5633002e956c4849.png

    Summary

    Not the best outlook to start but things may look very different over the next few days, and plenty of time for things to change and if it was plain sailing, where would the fun be in that. Fingers Crossed for an improvement in coming days.

     

    Edited by J10
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    Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

    Hurrah, glad to see you are still doing this thread Jack.  GFS will be in range soon. Looking forward to your excellent updates

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    Medium Term (8-14 days)

    Firstly looking at GFS. The current theme is for low pressure to become dominant over the UK towards the end of next week with moderate rainfall totals over a 72 hour spell. Thereafter a short lived Northerly is forecast to set up around the 12/13 June. This is set to be followed by Higher pressure edging in from the West by Mid June.

    So a little bit better than yesterday’s charts.

    NOAA Charts

    The charts from NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 days show low pressure over the UK once again, which ties in with the GFS above.

    The 6-10 anomaly is more pronounced than the 8-14 day anomaly, suggesting pressure slightly increasing.

    814day.03_0106.gif610day.03_0106.gif

    Total Rainfall

    The best and worst are shown below

    The first one shows around 1-2 inches of rain in the next 16 days, the latter closer to 4 inches of rain. Quite a substantial difference.

    GFSOPUK00_384_49_0106.pngGFSOPUK12_384_49_0106.png

    Ensembles

    Rather mixed but with some support for it turning a little unsettled towards and rather wet at the end of next week, thereafter a wide range of options.

    prcpWiltshire_0116.pngprmslWiltshire_0116.png

    Longer Term (upto T+384 16 days )

    Two of the runs have High Pressure over the UK, while one has no dominate pressure type and the other a weak area of low pressure.

    I have shown the best and worst charts below.

    GFSOPEU00_384_1_0106.pngGFSOPEU18_384_1_0106.png

    Edited by J10
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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

    If people going to Glastonbury get any/or have any good weather photos, do share them please, we can use them in the weather blogs. wellies, puddles, rivers through tents, sunshine, crowds, flags, sunset,  tents, stalls,  the stage. Not close ups of individual people but just scenes with a weather tinge. That would be great.

    EMAIL [email protected]  with Glasto Photo JO as subject ta

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
    On 5/21/2017 at 11:21, Zippy said:

    Bang on time as always J10. I don't remember a blip last year?? We got some cracking info in the lead up. 

    The weather in the last couple of weeks was making me a bit anxious that we'd get a very similar situation to last year. 2016 was drier than average for festival weekend, but the very heavy rain in the weeks beforehand made it one of the muddiest I've attended I think.

    However it looks promising over the pilton area this week, and if that generally positive trend continues in the lead up to solstice I will be pretty hopeful. 

    Bit of behind the scenes info from J10 , a link from the Netweather front page http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=8194;sess= 

    glast2.jpg

    Edited by Jo Farrow
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    Many Thanks for that Jo, very much appreciated.

    2nd June 2017

    Medium Term (8-14 days)

    Firstly looking at GFS. A change in the forecast since yesterday with much better agreement for Low Pressure to start next week. The signs are for things to turn a little bit more settled for a time next week, before the change of another low pressure system around next weekend (10th/11th June).

     The current theme to start June remains similar to yesterday with low pressure or unsettled weather over the UK over much of the next 2 weeks. Not a washout by any means but rather disappointing for early June, with perhaps more of a blocked pattern with South Westerly winds at times with longer spells of rain. Thereafter no real consensus but perhaps turning a little bit more settled once again.

    NOAA Charts

    The 6-10 and 8-14 day charts again show a trough over the UK, The 6-10 day chart has a deeper trough over the UK, with the 8-14 day chart showing a weaker trough and pressure increasing from the East.

    610day.03_0206.thumb.jpg.326e52dcb381e52858866125e6940b6a.jpg814day.03_0206.thumb.jpg.eb1b480697fc192c28404dd8739305df.jpg

    Total Rainfall

    The best and worst are shown below

    The first one shows around 1-2 inches of rain in the next 16 days, the latter closer to 4 inches of rain. Quite a substantial difference.

    GFSOPUK18_384_49_0206.thumb.png.153c0e3462338345bbd0b26811b9395b.pngGFSOPUK06_384_49_0206.thumb.png.0398517ce0ae6f810b32b5251fde00ac.png

     

    Ensembles

    prcpWiltshire_0206.thumb.png.90ef20c83f80df12ea082ad4adc8038d.pngprmslWiltshire_0206.thumb.png.98a0febf3d7d01a1b616c4c1d8e9d8d0.png

    An unsettled period at the start of next week, with a spike in rainfall. Thereafter rather mixed with some rain and pressure slightly rising on average but with a wide variety of pressure.

    Longer Term (up to T+384 16 days)

    A wide range of options still on the cards.

    GFSOPEU06_384_1_0206.thumb.png.35ab8cdf883b45830d90917cef6712b1.pngGFSOPEU00_384_1_0206.thumb.png.3edec0f44be8781750ca7a0287afbb5e.png

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    3rd June 2017

    Medium Term (8-14 days)

    Firstly looking at GFS. There remains good agreement for a deep area of Low Pressure to start next week, and while this clears, the remainder of next week, remains rather unsettled with winds from the West to South West.

    A slight change into the weekend and for the start of the following week is that while remaining unsettled, winds veering to more a North Westerly flow. However by the middle of that week, signs of pressure starting to edge in from the West to North West. So while nothing set in stone this far out, a few promising signs for the immediate build up to the festival.

    NOAA Charts

    Very similar to recent days the 6-10 chart has a trough over the UK, the 8-14 day chart has this weakening with pressure ridging a little from the East.

    610day.03_0306.thumb.jpg.e40adecf195b9c9cf6c4f86e7954b018.jpg814day.03_0306.thumb.jpg.420980616c6c2f07380572abf71f2598.jpg

    Total Rainfall

    Each of the run has around 3 inches of rain for the next 16 days, however 2 inches is for the first  8 days, so slightly drier for the week before the festival. Again best and worst illustrated.

    GFSOPUK12_384_49_0306.thumb.png.6842e977d695270d2dc3fd549e758e7a.pngGFSOPUK06_384_49_0306.thumb.png.0de281496b6a0f95851cc0e2bff6500b.png

    Ensembles

    prcpWiltshire_0306.thumb.png.6a873bcf56d3fd49117dcf57e59f7b64.pngprmslWiltshire_0306.thumb.png.0a5ff57fde732883873189035abeb4cd.png

    Very unsettled conditions expected from this Monday to the following Friday with moderate to heavy rain at times, thereafter a little bit drier with pressure rising a little.

    Longer Term (up to T+384 16 days) [Mon 19 June]

    GFSOPEU12_384_1_0316.thumb.png.769b8065d6db3a2971e02ac4c98c0f55.pngGFSOPEU18_384_1_0316.thumb.png.09d919b578c836958710b8608862d5a8.png

    Of the 4 daily charts, three show some degree of High Pressure for South Western parts of the UK, while the 12Hz run today, has a trough on top of the UK. Again best and worst illustrated.

    Edited by J10
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    God, really hoping this year, last year's turned impossible and I know people say a bit of muds OK but it got to the point where even the smallest of things became a massive mission to achieve and I work there with places to charge phones and dry clothes...please please stay dry xxxxxxxxxx

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