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Paul Sherman

Tour 1 - General thread

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So here we are its May 1st and a time to look ahead at the pattern for Tour 1 which is just about in the semi reliable time frame now at T216 Or thereabouts.

Am very happy with how the models are trending this morning. Both the GFS & ECM seem to be coming together placing a large trough around the California area. GFS is always quicker and progressive than the European Model and on its 06z run this morning starts to break down the 5th-9th May Ridge quicker. 

As it stands the 10th (Wednesday) chase day 1 would be a bonafide chase day in the Eastern New Mexico and Texas Panhandle area with a Dryline denoted and upper 50's to low 60's dewpoints and 2500 jpg of Cape on offer, decent SW flow at 500mb of 45kts and nice 850 windfields as well. 

The 11th sees the trough make a bit more progress east and another risk in Western Oklahoma along a sharpening dryline once again.

This will all change before we get there but its good to see trends starting to appear in the models and something to watch over the next week.

I dont put much credence into the CFS model but if you look at the 00z (1st May Run) it shows troughing throughout the whole of May pretty much.

Lets hope for an active Tour 1 and 2 during May and we will continue to watch trends for our later tours in June

Regards

Paul S

 

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All of the tour 1 info packs have now been sent out, so please shout if you haven't received yours. Not long to go now :D 

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Bon voyage to all guests and staff on tour  1 .   Hope you all have a pleasant flight out to the states.

Tom

 

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I always like to see what is out in the Pacific and this is for Monday 8th May

 

Tom

jetstream Mon 8 May 17.gif

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1 hour ago, Tom Lynch said:

Bon voyage to all guests and staff on tour  1 .   Hope you all have a pleasant flight out to the states.

Tom

 

Cheers Tom, this tour 1 is going to be a mega tour with 3 cars....and the weather isn't looking bad either!

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SPC 4-8 day outlook picking up on the idea of an increase in severe weather over central and southern Plains from Tuesday 9th (First chase for Tour 1 on the 10th), though predictability is too low for them to delineate areas for now:

Quote

As this western low approaches the southern/central Rockies, increasing moisture return and strengthening south/southwesterly flow aloft will potentially foster a severe-weather threat around D6/Tue-D8/Thu across the southern/central Plains. However, sizable uncertainty regarding the timing of the eastward progression of the low (and resultant severe potential across the Plains) precludes 15-percent probabilities at this time.
 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

The 500mb height loop below shows upper low moving east from California early next week.

gfs_z500a_us_fh120-192.thumb.gif.ab06da011bc92ba450d38e385f68b9e8.gif

Moisture return and heat building ahead of the low, building CAPE as mid-levels cool from the west. The lift of this warm and moist GoM airmass by approaching upper low, aided by shortwaves rounding the low, will. combined with increasing wind shear of backed surface low against strengthening SWly wind with height, likely bring a few days of severe storms which will move eastward in spatial extent across central and southern Plains through the week. Possible severe threat further NE over northern Plains associated with edge strong NWly jet up and moisture return up there too.

Weds 00z 500mb HGT/winds and MUCAPE (Tues 6pm CDT)

GFSUS_500_spd_144.thumb.png.182aac607af9a5046d26ca196f91f4e5.pngGFSUS_con_mucape_144.thumb.png.134c457a4960e41199c2ca4d4f47b7bf.png

Thurs 00z 500mb HGT/winds and MUCAPE (Weds 6pm CDT)

GFSUS_500_spd_168.thumb.png.09c9d817aad283070625df6a33f50641.pngGFSUS_con_mucape_168.thumb.png.185bcfd4e1bd0826a5a7d7567ba4e708.png

So all-in-all, not looking too bad a start to tour 1, some uncertainties over how quickly the upper low will move out of the Desert southwest, prefer it to slow down a bit vs current model output.

 

Edited by Nick F

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Plenty to keep an eye on for Tour 1 

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Chase day 1...

...D6/Wednesday -- Southern Plains...
   With the approaching low and increasing southwesterly flow aloft,
   environmental conditions are forecast to become favorable for an
   uptick in severe risk over the region. Several days of
   south/southeasterly low-level flow will advect increasing moisture
   towards portions of western Texas and Oklahoma. In turn, as forcing
   for ascent spreads across the region in association with the
   approaching low, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
   develop. A veering wind profile with height (and sufficient
   southwesterly mid-level flow) would likely be supportive of updraft
   organization/rotation within this pattern. Deterministic/ensemble
   guidance are in relatively good agreement regarding the
   time frame for this potential, such that a 15-percent area is
   introduced.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Looks like a decent start :)

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6 minutes ago, multi cellular thunderstorm said:

Chase day 1...

...D6/Wednesday -- Southern Plains...
   With the approaching low and increasing southwesterly flow aloft,
   environmental conditions are forecast to become favorable for an
   uptick in severe risk over the region. Several days of
   south/southeasterly low-level flow will advect increasing moisture
   towards portions of western Texas and Oklahoma. In turn, as forcing
   for ascent spreads across the region in association with the
   approaching low, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
   develop. A veering wind profile with height (and sufficient
   southwesterly mid-level flow) would likely be supportive of updraft
   organization/rotation within this pattern. Deterministic/ensemble
   guidance are in relatively good agreement regarding the
   time frame for this potential, such that a 15-percent area is
   introduced.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Looks like a decent start :)

The first few days are definitely looking good. Question is how far east we go with the low.

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Tour 1 draws to a close today. Sounds like a great time was had by all, and it was a successful chase too, with 8 tornadoes and countless other supercells over the 10 days. 

Last night the team finished up with a slap up steak meal, which by all accounts was amazing - so hopefully that's somewhere we can visit on t3!

Thanks to all the guests, hope you have a safe and hassle free journey home :) 

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Hi everyone,

Have just got home, and without a doubt the best tour yet. Everyone on the trip made this memories of a lifetime and I think all of us had a job at the airport not to cry etc. as we went our separate ways. Tour 1 has been amazing, and I really want to say a massive thanks to Paul, Tony, Arron and Nick, some of those core punches were mental. Really looking forward to next year as always, but meantime, hope Tour 2, 3 and 4 are as successful as Tour 1 has been, and stay safe!

I'll upload some more photos in the coming days for the forum if thats OK, don't want to confuse it in with Tour 2 threads.

Cheers,
Mike.

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6 hours ago, mikeofmacc said:

Hi everyone,

Have just got home, and without a doubt the best tour yet. Everyone on the trip made this memories of a lifetime and I think all of us had a job at the airport not to cry etc. as we went our separate ways. Tour 1 has been amazing, and I really want to say a massive thanks to Paul, Tony, Arron and Nick, some of those core punches were mental. Really looking forward to next year as always, but meantime, hope Tour 2, 3 and 4 are as successful as Tour 1 has been, and stay safe!

I'll upload some more photos in the coming days for the forum if thats OK, don't want to confuse it in with Tour 2 threads.

Cheers,
Mike.

mike i ave to say it was fun following the chases. 

Tom

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