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North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards


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Just now, Joe Bloggs said:

That’s good! 

Now we’re within 48 hours I’ve checked the MetO app. Sleet from midnight until 5am then light snow between then and 7am. I think altitude will be a factor until the early hours. 

The MetO data isn’t expecting much here - I think Cheshire will do very well. 

Yep- altitude will be all important which is disappointing with -7 uppers and negative dew points...if i were to have a stab i would say 150m plus is going to be needed to be white come morning- 200m plus should be more than enough (hopefully)!

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Browse the regional threads. Everyone’s noticed the adjustment!   GAME ON

HOLY super duper ITS TURNED TO HEAVY SNOW

If I can put my twopenneth in? The Welsh thread might as well be the South Welsh thread..completely monopolised by people from Cardiff, Swansea and the Valleys. Places over 4 hours drive away from me.

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yep- altitude will be all important which is disappointing with -7 uppers and negative dew points...if i were to have a stab i would say 150m plus is going to be needed to be white come morning- 200m plus should be more than enough (hopefully)!

Course it will! To be honest I only think altitude will be important overnight, once the very cold air digs in the early hours we should be laughing. ?

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Just now, Joe Bloggs said:

Course it will! To be honest I only think altitude will be important overnight, once the very cold air digs in the early hours we should be laughing. ?

Yes - the problem for me is the precip is forecast to be heaviest around midnight before the -9 uppers swing in- by this time the precip will have slipped to my SW..

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27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

yes we certainly do not want anymore corrections south now- from our regions point of view..

History tells me in these set-ups the very southern parts of the region do OK.  Northern regions get nowt and central regions get a dusting.

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3 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Course it will! To be honest I only think altitude will be important overnight, once the very cold air digs in the early hours we should be laughing. ?

whats your altitude joe

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Just now, bridgechad said:

Im guessing tonight's event will be half a mile up the road as usual! Sitting at 140m asl I can often see the snow line! Next house I buy is gonna be over one hill further east! 

You might be OK with 150m- probably borderline, but hopefully the extra 150m means all things being even thats a good 1 and half degrees colder than sea level- higher parts round here at 300m are going to get pumelled..

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The last cold shot we had produced snow at 150m for many and was less favourable than this one.

The shadow effect won't come in to play at this angle of slider, it needs to be from the South.

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Just now, Ramp said:

The last cold shot we had produced snow at 150m for many and was less favourable than this one.

The shadow effect won't come in to play at this angle of slider, it needs to be from the South.

You will OK with that altitude Ramp thats over 600feet- should do quite well tonight (fingers crossed)

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Strange that the met office regional only gives isolated snow showers for the region tomorrow. Can't see them being that isolated even with a ridge of rising pressure to the west. GFS shows meaningful showers going through a broad area of the coast to inland all night to about early evening tomorrow when it all eventually subsides

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i will wager meto warning for tonight will mention altitude- the bbc forecast for today says accumulations on the hills but not exclusively- that suggests 100m minimum is going to be required..to me anyway.

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

i will wager meto warning for tonight will mention altitude- the bbc forecast for today says accumulations on the hills but not exclusively- that suggests 100m minimum is going to be required..to me anyway.

Quite right. It will start wet here. I expect wintryness in the showers to start appearing about 11pm.

As for Sunday- any further S corrections and all of us will be out of the game. Midlands looks the sweet spot as things stand.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Quite right. It will start wet here. I expect wintryness in the showers to start appearing about 11pm.

As for Sunday- any further S corrections and all of us will be out of the game. Midlands looks the sweet spot as things stand.

I think you’re right that any real wintryness for low lying parts of the region will start from about midnight.

However I think the text forecast understates the risk for the south of the region tomorrow. I know for a fact the Met Office expects accumulations (possibly significant) in Cheshire anyway. This is also confirmed by this morning’s TV forecasts, so I think that wording is an error. 

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Fingers crossed,  interesting couple of days ahead, but I am expecting to have to travel to see lying snow, with no elevation  and not far from the coast,  Im reluctant to believe snow will settle here. 

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1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I think you’re right that any real wintryness for low lying parts of the region will start from about midnight.

However I think the text forecast understates the risk for the south of the region tomorrow. I know for a fact the Met Office expects accumulations (possibly significant) in Cheshire anyway. This is also confirmed by this morning’s TV forecasts, so I think that wording is an error. 

Well sometimes I think they lump Cheshire in with the Midlands! Seems that way anyway.

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