North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[northwestsnow]

Defo crewe about the warnings for sunday- could be an amazing event!!

hopefully tonight might be ok too

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely - with ukmo now pretty much aligned with gfs at 72 it does look like we could get pummelled round here.

I think this December shows why LRF's are a complete waste of time, who saw all this coming?

I know i didnt!

Here is the GEM's take on proceedings

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Here is the GEM's take on proceedings

woooo hoo looks good - 

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

woooo hoo looks good - 

If it was 4 weeks later with that cold trough sat over us, we'd be looking at some very very cold surface conditions with uppers slightly less moderated

[northwestsnow]

GFS has most of the region with around 516 DAM around midnight- translates to uppers of -7..(thats a pretty cold north westerly!!

dew points are negative too..

 

looks good for snow IMHO-

Although i'm still of the opinion a bit of altitude will help at this stage-possibly 150m plus to be on the safe side?

[shaky]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

woooo hoo looks good - 

Thats a massive upgrade on the gem!!think midlands and  yourselves are perfectly places for a wolloping lol!!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Thats a massive upgrade on the gem!!think midlands and  yourselves are perfectly places for a wolloping lol!!

well the text update from METO sounds amazing mate-'significant snow sunday'

Sounds like inches too me- i agree with you - looks good for much of the country now- perhaps the far south on the wrong side of marginal..

[shaky]

Yeh and also the 00z is an upgrade for snow slightly further south aswell!!all is well!!how is the ukmo mate at 72 hours to scared to look lol!!

Edited December 7, 2017 by shaky

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

well the text update from METO sounds amazing mate-'significant snow sunday'

Sounds like inches too me- i agree with you - looks good for much of the country now- perhaps the far south on the wrong side of marginal..

Yeh and also the 00z is an upgrade for snow slightly further south aswell!!all is well!!how is the ukmo mate at 72 hours to scared to look lol!!

[northwestsnow]

EURO4 still insisting there will be a lot of rain around this side of midnight- kind of ties in with the meto update talking of accumulations mainly on the hills.

I did mention altitude- and i'm thinking its going to play a bigger role than we anticipated..

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yeh and also the 00z is an upgrade for snow slightly further south aswell!!all is well!!how is the ukmo mate at 72 hours to scared to look lol!!

It looks very similar to me shaky- ever so slightly north but they look almost aligned to me..

Edited December 7, 2017 by northwestsnow

[EastofWigan]

47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS has most of the region with around 516 DAM around midnight- translates to uppers of -7..(thats a pretty cold north westerly!!

dew points are negative too..

 

looks good for snow IMHO-

Although i'm still of the opinion a bit of altitude will help at this stage-possibly 150m plus to be on the safe side?

At 140m I'm now expecting to be disappointed again  

[iand61]

Peach of a forecast on BBC news just now.

showers merging this evening across virtually off the the region and lasting well into the night so I'd imagine many of us will wake up to a decent covering in the morning.

showers continuing on Friday for some then it's all eyes on Sunday with a significant area of snow crossing the region.

could be a pasting.

[JeffC]

55 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS has most of the region with around 516 DAM around midnight- translates to uppers of -7..(thats a pretty cold north westerly!!

dew points are negative too..

 

looks good for snow IMHO-

Although i'm still of the opinion a bit of altitude will help at this stage-possibly 150m plus to be on the safe side?

A lot will be down to topography as well e.g. We often get snow in Coniston even though the village is only about 50m asl because we're in a valley at the foot of the mountains, whereas almost due west of us windermere and kendal maybe get less or sleet as they're not as close to the fells  even though similar height. I've seen it raining in Kendal but snowing like crazy at home!

That said let's hope it's not quite so marginal! 

Edited December 7, 2017 by JeffC

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, iand61 said:

Peach of a forecast on BBC news just now.

showers merging this evening across virtually off the the region and lasting well into the night so I'd imagine many of us will wake up to a decent covering in the morning.

showers continuing on Friday for some then it's all eyes on Sunday with a significant area of snow crossing the region.

could be a pasting.

Sounds brill Ian !!

Must admit i was a little suprised euro4 showing rain at midnight - esp the west of the region- i posted above

uppers -7

dews negative

maybe the euro4 model is factoring in the warm irish sea i don't know tbh..

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sounds brill Ian !!

Must admit i was a little suprised euro4 showing rain at midnight - esp the west of the region- i posted above

uppers -7

dews negative

maybe the euro4 model is factoring in the warm irish sea i don't know tbh..

It'll be the warm flow from the Irish Sea...hence the precipitation is snow into the N Midlands but rain closer to the NW coast. The Irish Sea at this time of year can mean rain even this far in land, even with decent uppers.

[Spah1]

Oh man! 

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Saturday will remain cold and sunny with isolated snow showers and winds easing. Sunday will bring some snow with significant accumulations, turning brighter with more isolated wintry showers on Monday.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Praying it doesnt correct any more south.

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Praying it doesnt correct any more south.

Yes the EC precip charts now has cumbria largely missing out sunday...

like you say no more corrections south now or the alarm bells will start ringing for even manchester!!

Edited December 7, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Winter Hill]

Don't want this slider low to move further south or we are out the game. 

Feeling nervous...

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Don't want this slider low to move further south or we are out the game. 

Feeling nervous...

yes we certainly do not want anymore corrections south now- from our regions point of view..

[dodge]

I have a feeling it won't reach our parts (north & east of manchester) or what does will be light and patchy.  Hope I'm wrong but sliders are frustrating beasts.  Thankfully there's a window of opportunity overnight for a few hours were we could get some decent wintery showers filtering in off the Irish Sea before this focuses south through the cheshire gap.

[Joe Bloggs]

4 minutes ago, dodgeredee said:

I have a feeling it won't reach our parts (north & east of manchester) or what does will be light and patchy.  Hope I'm wrong but sliders are frustrating beasts.  Thankfully there's a window of opportunity overnight for a few hours were we could get some decent wintery showers filtering in off the Irish Sea before this focuses south through the cheshire gap.

You have me obsessing about the Easterly/southeasterly Manchester snow shadow now! ?

I’m hoping that if the winds stay light, it won’t be a problem. 

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

You have me obsessing about the Easterly/southeasterly Manchester snow shadow now! ?

I’m hoping that if the winds stay light, it won’t be a problem. 

acc to ian the bbc forecast for tonight looks great for our region Joe

meto app says heavy snow here from 9pm until 3am!!

Edited December 7, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Joe Bloggs]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

acc to ian the bbc forecast for tonight looks great for our region Joe

That’s good! 

Now we’re within 48 hours I’ve checked the MetO app. Sleet from midnight until 5am then light snow between then and 7am. I think altitude will be a factor until the early hours. 

The MetO data isn’t expecting much here - I think Cheshire will do very well.