North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[damianslaw]

I'm expecting the Met Office to bring forward the weather warning for snow and ice so it starts from 4pm tomorrow, given the colder air is moving in quicker and there is indication of a trough feature moving through during the evening. I'm surprised it doesn't begin until 1am Friday morning - far too late.

Also expecting the first yellow warnings tomorrow for snow on Sunday, it will be very conservation in wording probably something along the lines of mix of rain, sleet and snow, and track and intensity uncertain at this stage, with snow mainly reserved for higher ground. But higher ground to the BBC these days seems to mean about 100 metres.. They won't put out any amber warnings until much nearer the event probably Saturday morning.

 

[Thunder Snow]

omg really wild should be a warning

[chiffer]

This is shaping up to be a lovely setup, it's been a long while since we've had a setup like this that isn't a battle. 

Very nice to see the cold air will be digging in earlier and the met office mentioning snow to low levels, it's about damn time

[Geordiesnow]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

just look at that beauty!1 24 hours away- 

I'm always a little skeptical about the validity of the PPN type on those charts when you see the potential for snow to fall in the Atlantic ocean! Of course the idea is there for initially of quite strong convection as thicknesses and lapse rates are at their lowest during Thursday night and into Friday morning. It is of course my best chance of seeing something wintry also as the winds will start too veer NW'ly and it looks like Cumbria and North Lancashire will miss out whilst those further South in the region will keep on getting the fun and games before showers possibly fading during Saturday night due to a slight increase in pressure and any oncoming cloud from that front that may hit on Sunday.

Regarding Sunday's front, maybe the experts can answer this one for me but is it down to low thicknesses and perhaps any surface cold which help to produce snow on the leading edge despite fairly unremarkable uppers? Too my eyes, timing could be crucial, ideally you want this front to come during the early hours as there might be some surface cold to be had although the GFS 18Z suggest it may not arrive until daylight hours which in my eyes would make it more marginal.

[Backtrack]

3 hours ago, Chris.R said:

Well there’s  SP; The other 2 are still around somewhere as well.  I wonder if @Backtrack has eaten his hat yet, although I can’t for the life of me remember what that was about! Lol 

Did someone say my name?

[Backtrack]

I can’t remember either hahaha. All I know is that NW England is gonna get pasted on Friday and over the weekend

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

5 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

I can’t remember either hahaha. All I know is that NW England is gonna get pasted on Friday and over the weekend

Get the socks ready haha

[Backtrack]

Just now, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

Get the socks ready haha

I’ve bought many more pairs  

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Expecting quite a bit tonight and overnight tomorrow

 

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Xcweather has in excess of 30cm

[Backtrack]

Can’t see that much falling, but eh, we all know how 2010 went down 

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Yeah stranger things have happened

[Cheshire Freeze]

Metoffice text forecast going for showers becoming 'isolated' overnight tomorrow and into Friday. Not even a mention about the far S of the region which, to me, suggests the newest data they have has the winds more N'ly than NW'ly

Tonight:

Blustery snow showers will continue through the evening becoming more isolated overnight. Clear skies will develop for many through the early hours leading to a widespread frost by dawn. Minimum Temperature -3 °C.

Friday:

Friday will remain windy and bitterly cold with isolated snow showers; but plenty of sunshine for many. Maximum Temperature 4 °C.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/gcqq06t6x#?zoom=9&lat=53.10&lon=-2.44&map=SignificantWeather&fcTime=1512572400

[Geordiesnow]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Metoffice text forecast going for showers becoming 'isolated' overnight tomorrow and into Friday. Not even a mention about the far S of the region which, to me, suggests the newest data they have has the winds more N'ly than NW'ly

Tonight:

Blustery snow showers will continue through the evening becoming more isolated overnight. Clear skies will develop for many through the early hours leading to a widespread frost by dawn. Minimum Temperature -3 °C.

Friday:

Friday will remain windy and bitterly cold with isolated snow showers; but plenty of sunshine for many. Maximum Temperature 4 °C.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/gcqq06t6x#?zoom=9&lat=53.10&lon=-2.44&map=SignificantWeather&fcTime=1512572400

Sounds an accurate description on how I think things will develop up here although I'll be surprised if it was the same for those further South in the region. The only explanation I have is that thicknesses and lapse rates are higher therefore less instability to play with?

[Chris.R]

44 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Did someone say my name?

Hey :-) good to see you around. Rather exciting the next few days. Keep us posted if you can. 

[Chris.R]

46 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

I can’t remember either hahaha. All I know is that NW England is gonna get pasted on Friday and over the weekend

Something like you said you would eat your hat if we got snow from this set up. One of the 2010 events. Yes there was socks involved as well I think. lol

[Chris.R]

20 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Sounds an accurate description on how I think things will develop up here although I'll be surprised if it was the same for those further South in the region. The only explanation I have is that thicknesses and lapse rates are higher therefore less instability to play with?

 If that text forecast is anywhere near right I will eat my hat... and my  gloves! for good measure! 

[toggerob]

Nothing is ever guaranteed but being 700ft asl just a few miles north of Buxton and within eyesight of Shining Tor and Kinder Scout, it's almost a certainty we'll be having snow sometime this weekend in the western-edge of the Peak District.

Interesting that MWIS has a possibility of lightning associated with tomorrow evening's showers.

[Weather-history]

GFS still has showers coming into region midnight Saturday/Sunday

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS 0z snow depths Midday Sunday

[northwestsnow]

15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS 0z snow depths Midday Sunday

GFS00z shows hours of heavy snow in our locale on sunday- hope its right!!!

[Weather-history]

UKMO early hours Monday

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

UKMO early hours Monday

Dont know what to make of ukmo Kevin- looks very similar to gfs 96 ?

[Cheshire Freeze]

A generalised weather warning will probably be put out today for Sunday by the Metoffice.

At the moment the zone of interest seems to be anywhere between the M4 and the Ribble (maybe a bit further N). Plenty of time for changes yet though. These systems are notoriously difficult to pin down.

Edited December 7, 2017 by CreweCold

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

A generalised weather warning will probably be put out today for Sunday by the Metoffice.

At the moment the zone of interest seems to be anywhere between the M4 and the Ribble. Plenty of time for changes yet though. These systems are notoriously difficult to pin down.

Absolutely - with ukmo now pretty much aligned with gfs at 72 it does look like we could get pummelled round here.

I think this December shows why LRF's are a complete waste of time, who saw all this coming?

I know i didnt!