North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think you'll be ok, the 50 mile modification takes me out but still gives you another 50 miles to play with.

Such a shame we've seen this southward correction. Some of the GFS ensemble members look dicey even for here and places me on the very northern (weak) edge of the band. As it stands I'll be quite happy with an inch or so.

Some parts of the Midlands (Shrewsbury-Telford) look good for 15cm or so.

If you live north of a line Liverpool- Manchester you can forget it for this one in my very honest opinion.

Edited December 9, 2017 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Such a shame we've seen this southward correction. Some of the GFS ensemble members look dicey even for here and places me on the very northern (weak) edge of the band. As it stands I'll be quite happy with an inch or so.

Some parts of the Midlands (Shrewsbury-Telford) look good for 15cm or so.

Don't worry about ens at this range, they aren't designed for this, wait for the euro 4, I'm sure that will be ok.

[feb1991blizzard]

I'm just gutted about the collapse of this supposedly protracted cold spell, I 'm looking a long way up for guidance now and I'm not talking religion!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Don't worry about ens at this range, they aren't designed for this, wait for the euro 4, I'm sure that will be ok.

I've checked the AROME and ARPEGE and they are the same (if not even further S than their earlier runs)

This is pretty much the N extent of the ARPEGE...the really good stuff is Midlands S, the arc of heavy precipitation gets further S with every run.

This is getting close to being over for NW England and you can bet that the Metoffice will start to backtrack through the day!

 

Edited December 9, 2017 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I've checked the AROME and ARPEGE and they are the same (if not even further S than their earlier runs)

This is pretty much the N extent of the ARPEGE...the really good stuff is Midlands S

 

cripes that is bad, I'm all but gone then!!!

[Fozfoster]

Your gutted feb, well I see snow then rain?

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

cripes that is bad, I'm all but gone then!!!

Anyone N of Manchester is out of the game IMO, by 18z today I reckon most of the region will be.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Anyone N of Manchester is out of the game IMO, by 18z today I reckon most of the region will be.

Its possible I have to say given past, but usually its already downgraded by now, Jan 13 I already knew my fate by this point.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its possible I have to say given past, but usually its already downgraded by now, Jan 13 I already knew my fate by this point.

Yeah

Was reasonably happy when I saw the 0z GFS...then I looked at the higher res models...wish I hadn't!

 

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

My dp has risen to 0c!

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yeah

Was reasonably happy when I saw the 0z GFS...then I looked at the higher res models...wish I hadn't!

 

NMM keeps you in the game and me for a dusting.

[Cheshire Freeze]

EURO4 has moved S. Game over

[feb1991blizzard]

Not fully out yet.

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not fully out yet.

Can tell by the accumulated precip which is out to 48 hrs

[Cheshire Freeze]

EURO4 N extent

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes - garbage - look at that hideous snow shadow!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - garbage - look at that hideous snow shadow!

I am effin gutted

[feb1991blizzard]

Me too - Snow accu does suggest a bit though but obviously it could go even further south yet.

[Supacell]

I know i am classed as the Midlands but the talk in there this morning will be about how great these runs are because, for most of them, it is.

Personally I am gutted too. Being the farthest north in the Midlands you can get I now look to miss out where a few miles further south they get bags of snow.

It seems like it is always either further north or further south.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Supacell said:

I know i am classed as the Midlands but the talk in there this morning will be about how great these runs are because, for most of them, it is.

Personally I am gutted too. Being the farthest north in the Midlands you can get I now look to miss out where a few miles further south they get bags of snow.

It seems like it is always either further north or further south.

I know

Sounds stupid but I'd give my bank account to have that precip 100 miles further N in the modelling right now

Edited December 9, 2017 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I know i am classed as the Midlands but the talk in there this morning will be about how great these runs are because, for most of them, it is.

Personally I am gutted too. Being the farthest north in the Midlands you can get I now look to miss out where a few miles further south they get bags of snow.

It seems like it is always either further north or further south.

Trust me, your still well in the hunt, for 10cm anyway, not saying you will but you still have a chance.

Edited December 9, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[Winter Hill]

This poxy region is jinxed... only a matter of time before the warnings are removed. 

Back to bed for me... pffffff 

[dodge]

One persons upgrade is another person's downgrade...looks like the latest output puts most of the north west region out of action.  You never know there could be  last minute shift north again....in the meantime I wonder what showers will make an appearance today.  Ice station zebra at boundary park could live up to its name this afternoon. 

Edited December 9, 2017 by dodgeredee

[northwestsnow]

yep a last minute downgrade is looming for the north west.

need to rely on today for a few cm - 

[SP1986]

There is still a possibility it could be further north.. the models don't necessarily have it pinned on yet. There are plenty of models still putting precipitation over more of our region and these cannot be discounted (even lower res outputs). 

However sliders usually do end up southwards of our region so it's not a great surprise if it ends up that way