North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[Backtrack]

Just now, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

Latest nmm shirt range has downgraded sundays event. Doesnt even get past the nersey ??

It’s on its own, it’s a poor model 

[Winter Hill]

8 minutes ago, karyo said:

I hope the large rainshadow was not there in the earlier frame.

Well the MetO dont think so hence the amber warnings. 

BBC are still getting their data from the Met.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Just to put it out there, met office had us all down for snow last night!

[Backtrack]

Just now, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

Just to put it out there, met office had us all down for snow last night!

They had us down for sleet and rain all night which is what we got 

[raul_sbd]

What time is the update of the Euro4? is not at 5pm?

[karyo]

1 minute ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

Just to put it out there, met office had us all down for snow last night!

Good point!

Anyway, the updated Aprege looks good. 

[karyo]

Just now, raul_sbd said:

What time is the update of the Euro4? is not at 5pm?

Around 5:30

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

2 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

They had us down for sleet and rain all night which is what we got 

So why did everyone get excited for sleet and rain?

[SP1986]

There can be no comparison between the showery nature of last night and the frontal situation on Sunday. Totally different dynamics.. and as it stands it's hitting us

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Point is met office have before given red warings and nothing happens and give no warnings and we get deluged. Pure guesswork sometimes

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

So why did everyone get excited for sleet and rain?

Because they're scared of proper hobbies like powerboats and hang gliding 

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Just now, SP1986 said:

There can be no comparison between the showery nature of last night and the frontal situation on Sunday. Totally different dynamics.. and as it stands it's hitting us

Very true its not sporadic in nature but an eventuality. But does it have energy to make it rhis far up?

[SP1986]

With all due respect I doubt Met Office have ever issued a red warning where nothing has happened. That would be extremely bad negligence

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Because they're scared of proper hobbies like powerboats and hang gliding 

Lol made my day!!

[Chris.R]

People need to remember that Sunday is nothing like the setup we have today and last night. It will be frontal precipitation with light off-shore winds associated with it. I see no marginality at all and I’m expecting the most snow since 18 January 2013 here. Couldn’t be more perfect.  

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Just now, SP1986 said:

With all due respect I doubt Met Office have ever issued a red warning where nothing has happened. That would be extremely bad negligence

They gave red warning for wakes few years ago. Just small area. We got all the snow with no warnings whatever

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Just now, Chris.R said:

People need to remember that Sunday is nothing like the setup we have today and last night. It will be frontal precipitation with light off-shore winds associated with it. I see no marginality at all and I’m expecting the most snow since 18 January 2013 here. Couldn’t be more perfect.  

I have no doubts it will be snow, just weather it can nake it up here

[Chris.R]

3 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

There can be no comparison between the showery nature of last night and the frontal situation on Sunday. Totally different dynamics.. and as it stands it's hitting us

Snap! Exactly, totally different ball game on Sunday. 

[SP1986]

Just now, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

Very true its not sporadic in nature but an eventuality. But does it have energy to make it rhis far up?

Yes because it's supported by the low pressure. Don't worry even outside of the extreme 20cm scenario we have plenty of room for manoeuvre. 8cm is still a decent amount.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

We had this sort of setup a few years ago. A sw-ley frontal system that stalled over us. We got hammered that day. So i know it different setup

[Mokidugway]

And it's still a way off could shift further north or SOUTH 

[Chris.R]

Just now, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

We had this sort of setup a few years ago. A sw-ley frontal system that stalled over us. We got hammered that day. So i know it different setup

Yes 18th Jan 2013

Can think of at least 10 similar events in the last 10 years we have done well out of. 

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Just now, Mokidugway said:

And it's still a way off could shift further north or SOUTH 

Should it have been rain though we woukd have been magnet for it all!!!

[SP1986]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

And it's still a way off could shift further north or SOUTH 

I would be very surprised if it shifted too much. Modelling is much more advanced than it was 10 years ago. I would argue well remain in the sweet spot. After all it effectively starts tomorrow night

[karyo]

The arome is similar to the aprege but with a nasty little rainshadow over greater Manchester.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome.php?ech=42&mode=101&map=30