North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[karyo]

And the Sunday midday chart

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

[karyo]

If you check the 9am precipitation chart it shows our rain shadow in all its glory.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=45&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Like I said before, the low needs a more northerly track

[frosty ground]

20 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

.....dont repost this in the MOD thread

You mean the everything will correct south thread.... Still night eeek!

[Weather-history]

The report was made 1 hour and 3 minutes ago, at 16:55 UTC

Forecast valid from 08 at 18 UTC to 09 at 24 UTC

Wind 8 kt from the Northwest

Visibility 10 km or more

Scattered clouds at a height of 3500 ft

Probability 30% :

Temporary
from 09 at 06 UTC to 09 at 23 UTC

Visibility: 0800 m

Broken clouds at a height of 400 ft 
Broken clouds at a height of 2000 ft, Cumulonimbus.

snow showers

[SP1986]

Euro4 seems ok it pushes precipitation northwards fine. Heaviest stuff over Wales

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

9 minutes ago, cfallon said:

No such thing as a read warning it’s AMBER

We know its amber. 

[chris78]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

If you check the 9am precipitation chart it shows our rain shadow in all its glory.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=45&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Like I said before, the low needs a more northerly track

Yeah, as Jo's blog on the sticky above says, this is no way nailed on. People are getting very excited again.

[damianslaw]

A  beautiful winters day here blue skies arctic airstream, fells etched white , lovely, biting wind. We had a slight dusting first thing, but all the shower activity has been to our SW.

My eyes are turning to tomorrow, wind is going to change to a westerly, and I suspect we will pick up quite a few showers as the day wears on, just when everywhere else starts to see them diminish. BBC forecast is showing some snow tomorrow evening..

Sunday - very messy, a wait and see picture, would be good to have a couple of inches - I remain optimistic, from an imby perspective could do with the front edging about 100 miles north but can't be greedy and this wouldn't suit southern parts of the region as it would very marginal, alas the region is just about on the right side of marginal.

 

[karyo]

1 minute ago, SP1986 said:

Euro4 seems ok it pushes precipitation northwards fine. Heaviest stuff over Wales

It is very good for your area, Liverpool, Cheshire and the Pennines. 

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The report was made 1 hour and 3 minutes ago, at 16:55 UTC

Forecast valid from 08 at 18 UTC to 09 at 24 UTC

Wind 8 kt from the Northwest

Visibility 10 km or more

Scattered clouds at a height of 3500 ft

Probability 30% :

Temporary
from 09 at 06 UTC to 09 at 23 UTC

Visibility: 0800 m

Broken clouds at a height of 400 ft 
Broken clouds at a height of 2000 ft, Cumulonimbus.

snow showers

Is that Liverpool or Manchester airport?

[Winter Hill]

11 minutes ago, pip22 said:

Question. Does Manchester airport cancel there flights in advance of the amber weather warning? I'm catching a plane to Tenerife at 10AM Sunday.

No.

It would cost the airport thousands of pounds for a weather warning that could not happen.

 

[Weather-history]

Just now, karyo said:

Is that Liverpool or Manchester airport?

Manchester

[swainclubber]

7 minutes ago, karyo said:

If you check the 9am precipitation chart it shows our rain shadow in all its glory.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=45&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Like I said before, the low needs a more northerly track

Very evident indeed. Oh the joys 

[Bury88]

9 minutes ago, karyo said:

If you check the 9am precipitation chart it shows our rain shadow in all its glory.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=45&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Like I said before, the low needs a more northerly track

is anyone really surprised? same old same old

[karyo]

The updated ECM is slightly further south than the UKMO unfortunately. Need to see its precipitation chart later when the Icelandic Met Office updates it.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=48&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0

 

[dodge]

It's a snow shadow.  When it's rain it has no problem dumping it's stuff over Greater Manchester and it's conurbations.  Still hopefully we'll see a period of falling snow on Sunday, but expect other parts especially the peaks and tops of pens will see quite a bit if the forecast holds true.

[Mokidugway]

Let's hope the pub run staggers north ..

[itsnowjoke]

50 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

If we all get in our cars ,face west,accelerate fast to increase Earth s rotational speed thus increasing the weather systems angular momentum further north. 

I like your thinking 

[Mokidugway]

4 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

I like your thinking 

Don't know how many cars you would need to effect  the earths rotational inertia but I bet it's a lot ,lol 

[Frost HoIIow]

I think Greater Manchester will be just about be in the sweet spot on Sunday, of course the rain/snow shadow could still be an issue. As it stands Greater Manchester, Cheshire, Merseyside, North Central Wales, North & East Midlands (Peaks Derbyshire) & perhaps South Yorkshire look to be the best places for some disruptive snow.

Edited December 8, 2017 by Frost HoIIow

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

2 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I think Greater Manchester will be just about be in the sweet spot on Sunday, of course the rain/snow shadow could still be an issue. As it stands Greater Manchester, Cheshire, North Central Wales, North & East Midlands (Peaks Derbyshire) & perhaps South Yorkshire look to be the best places for some disruptive snow.

You forgot merseyside ?

[Chris harry]

How come Manchester is known as the rainy city. But when it snows we get squaw fiddly. ????

[Spurry]

No snow here at all today , however the BBC has Snow from 3am sunday up until midnight...can't see it personally but I live in hope

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2633948

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, Spurry said:

No snow here at all today , however the BBC has Snow from 3am sunday up until midnight...can't see it personally but I live in hope

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2633948

Pretty much the same here 18 hours of snow will drop more than 5 cm ,lol

[gearbox100]

Its like this every snow event it's only the times it's not forecast we in Merseyside seem to get any. We had absolutely nothing here in my part of st Helens even tho some areas of my time claim to have had some snow.