North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

ECM Derbyshire forecast snow

4 inches through Friday 

10 inches by teatime Sunday 

14 inches by Wednesday....

That forecast is wrong...it has 4-5 inches here and I've never seen more than 10cm!

[WillinGlossop]

Hirlam upto Saturday morning 10-15cm 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hi Res AROME probably a bit more realistic

[Cheshire Freeze]

Oh and here is the ARPEGE for the Sunday event...note the big rain shadow around Manchester

Really need a 50 mile or so move N on next run

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Oh and here is the ARPEGE for the Sunday event...note the big rain shadow around Manchester

Really need a 50 mile or so move N on next run

The South Easterly rain shadow...... Eeek!

I remember the 2013 Sliders and the lead by the automatic Apps. Started with lots of heavy snow symbols but once it was inside 48 hours the snow dried up. For those in the Manchester arae its worth remembering.

[alr1970]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Oh and here is the ARPEGE for the Sunday event...note the big rain shadow around Manchester

Really need a 50 mile or so move N on next run

'Twas ever thus. 

Does anyone know how to get poster locations displaying on the mobile version of the forums, or has that feature been lost forever?

Edited December 7, 2017 by alr1970

[Chris.R]

Wow didn’t notice this bit of the text forecast. 

 

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Saturday will remain cold and sunny with isolated snow showers and winds easing. Sunday will bring some snow with significant accumulations, turning brighter with more isolated wintry showers on Monday.

 This is massive, huge upgrade, if they’re onboard thenperhaps we should get excited now. They don’t often use sentences like that. 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Oh and here is the ARPEGE for the Sunday event...note the big rain shadow around Manchester

Really need a 50 mile or so move N on next run

Yes its a dreadful wind direction for Greater manchester- the peaks just gobble up all the snow and we're left with practically nothing- 

As crewe says, we could do with a shift north now- 

[frosty ground]

If its downgrades you are after the 8am (automatic) app updates are for you.......

My location has been downgraded to sleet until 11 and then mostly light snow there after. (tonight)



 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes its a dreadful wind direction for Greater manchester- the peaks just gobble up all the snow and we're left with practically nothing- 

As crewe says, we could do with a shift north now- 

GFS is just about fine, GEM is fine, but the ECM and other hi res models are now cutting it very fine. Let's get it shifted slightly N...sod those in the S and S midlands.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

If its downgrades you are after the 8am (automatic) app updates are for you.......

My location has been downgraded to sleet until 11 and then mostly light snow there after. (tonight)



 

Showing sleet here tomorrow late morning and early afternoon. Only in the UK could you get sleet with -9 upper air. 

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

If its downgrades you are after the 8am (automatic) app updates are for you.......

My location has been downgraded to sleet until 11 and then mostly light snow there after. (tonight)



 

I reckon it will be snowing up yours by 6pm ..

[Acupuncturist]

People are mentioning altitude will be a factor here over the next few days, I think thats true but I suspect attitude will be even more important in south Manchester. I'm going to try to keep myself from getting too excited and be happy with 1cm of lying snow at any time ! 

[SP1986]

A dusting would be fine here since snow on the ground here is rare enough

[frosty ground]

34 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That forecast is wrong...it has 4-5 inches here and I've never seen more than 10cm!

4 inches would be around 10cm.....

[Joe Bloggs]

28 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Oh and here is the ARPEGE for the Sunday event...note the big rain shadow around Manchester

Really need a 50 mile or so move N on next run

Arghhhhhhhhhh! The most annoying, bizarre weather phenomenon EVER! 

If we get a notable east or SE wind associated with this feature then it ain’t gonna happen for Manchester. (other parts of the region will be fine). Really we want the low to hit us dead on with light, variable winds. Like you say, a shift north. 

Edited December 7, 2017 by Joe Bloggs

[northwestsnow]

Hmmm bbc app has also downgraded here - now rain until 11pm- thats bitterly disappointing at 200m- esp with the uppers being around -7 by then- temps above zero too until the precip has sunk SW- 

Not sure i will even have a covering in the morning now!

-7 uppers/-dew/200m and rain- pfffft

Edited December 7, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

4 inches would be around 10cm.....

It would indeed and as I said, I've never seen more than that so I don't hold out much hope of seeing that much this coming Sunday!

[frosty ground]

Just now, CreweCold said:

It would indeed and as I said, I've never seen more than that so I don't hold out much hope of seeing that much this coming Sunday!

Considering those charts are going o be around 50% out you are probably right.

[northwestsnow]

Just been to shop and the colder air has moved in already- feels much colder than yesterday..

and so it begins...temps only going one way from here- hope people see some snow

Edited December 7, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Had Worse]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Just been to shop and the colder air has moved in already- feels much colder than yesterday..

and so it begins...temps only going one way from here- hope people see some snow

Definately colder. Temp has dropped from 10°C to 6°C in the last 2.5 hours.

I'm watching developments very closely with tonight / Friday and especially Sunday as there looks to be a considerable ammount of snow forcast.

Might look like this by end of Sunday.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks to be a northward correction on the 6z for the Sunday low

Edited December 7, 2017 by CreweCold

[pip22]

Is there any good thermometer apps on my iphone like I using an actual thermometer?

Edited December 7, 2017 by pip22

[Cheshire Freeze]

Ooops maybe too much of a northward adjustment..

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Oh and here is the ARPEGE for the Sunday event...note the big rain shadow around Manchester

Really need a 50 mile or so move N on next run

.....the barreness of the Fylde coast too.