North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[Day 10]

Phil Avery on bbc just then talking about snow showers western side of Britain esp through the Liverpool bay area and yes lying snow!

[Makemeasnowman]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Phil Avery on bbc just then talking about snow showers western side of Britain esp through the Liverpool bay area and yes lying snow!

 

[Makemeasnowman]

Do you have a link for that mate?

[Spah1]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42231565

decent summary

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42231565

decent summary

Slightly different to what he said about Friday after the news, but yeah a decent summary. Cheers

[Hocus Pocus]

Looking like those of us North of the Ribble will miss out on the action if the output turns out to be correct. Hopefully we see winds swing to a more Westerly element, purely IMBY of course.

[Mark.C]

still 4 days away, a hell of a lot can and probably will change for the better/worse for each area 

[frosty ground]

Dry as a bone for the east of our region once again on the GFS.. ... 

holding for somehing in the flow otherwise cold and dry is the order of the day.... whch is still pleasnt... West of Manchester could see a few cm's

[Joe Bloggs]

Better GFS this morning - more of a westerly element. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_75_1.png

Looking wintry on the MetO too 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU00_72_1.png

ECM also good! 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_72_1.png

With this angle just about anywhere in the NW could get a shower but further south in the region is favoured. Cheshire and Peak District look favoured the most, peak time for snow Thursday night into Friday morning IMO.

Looking better for our patch this morning. ?

[Joe Bloggs]

This chart from the GFS represents the areas most at risk from showers quite well. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_78_53.png

[northwestsnow]

37 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Better GFS this morning - more of a westerly element. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_75_1.png

Looking wintry on the MetO too 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU00_72_1.png

ECM also good! 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_72_1.png

With this angle just about anywhere in the NW could get a shower but further south in the region is favoured. Cheshire and Peak District look favoured the most, peak time for snow Thursday night into Friday morning IMO.

Looking better for our patch this morning. ?

EC looks pick of the bunch to me Joe- I'd expect some warnings later today or tomorrow for a few cm across swathes of the North west

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

Dry as a bone for the east of our region once again on the GFS.. ... 

holding for somehing in the flow otherwise cold and dry is the order of the day.... whch is still pleasnt... West of Manchester could see a few cm's

Looks good to me FG

[northwestsnow]

Hmmm high res WRF-NNM model shows pretty much ALL of the precip thur night into Fri as RAIN for our region..

[Joe Bloggs]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm high res WRF-NNM model shows pretty much ALL of the precip thur night into Fri as RAIN for our region..

GFS would have to be pretty wrong for that to be case. Those uppers are forecast to be very cold by 6am Friday. 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

GFS would have to be pretty wrong for that to be case. Those uppers are forecast to be very cold by 6am Friday. 

It does show a little snow in the east of the region but one would assume thats higher ground.

Dont know how good a model it id tbh- anyway will be within reach of euro4 by tomorrow morning

[WillinGlossop]

18-20 inches 45-50cm.... by Wednesday...I’d take that... but in jest as precip charts not reliable...

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, WillinGlossop said:

18-20 inches 45-50cm.... by Wednesday...I’d take that... but in jest as precip charts not reliable...

ERM let me think about that for a second......................BANK!!!!!!!!!!

[Had Worse]

8 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

ERM let me think about that for a second......................BANK!!!!!!!!!!

I told my neighbours there would be only half that ammount, I dont want to be accused of under estimating 

Edited December 5, 2017 by Had Worse

[carl1980]

Weather warnings now issued for snow and ice

[karyo]

6 minutes ago, carl1980 said:

Weather warnings now issued for snow and ice

Does it cover the region or just the coastal areas?

[frosty ground]

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Oldham_Moorside
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Oldham
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Manchester
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Altrincham
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Northwich
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Liverpool

So A quick Set of links to highlight that further south and west in the region you are the more PPN you will receive during Thursday and Friday

I don't mind if Oldham sees 10CM Sunday morning (Shame it turns to rain) on this run at least.

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

Does it cover the region or just the coastal areas?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2017-12-08&lat=53.5642&lon=-2.0709

2-5cm generally for our region......

10-20 for Scotland and Wales (Higher Ground)

Edited December 5, 2017 by frosty ground

[carl1980]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Does it cover the region or just the coastal areas?

Mostly Cheshire gap and coasts but Manchester is covered

[geri]

Met office yellow warning for snow Merseyside Friday into Saturday!

 

game on ! 

[cheshire snow]

Weather warning kiss of death when I am under a snow warning LOL.

Will take it though,looks like areas further north in the region will benefit 

More on Sunday with more southern areas seeing rain,all in all we should all

See some white stuff over the weekend

C.S