North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[I Cumbria Marra I]

2 hours ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Hello mate. It has been a while but I have been stalking this place non stop. ?

Don’t pay ANY attention to the MetO raw data. It is notoriously bad at picking up convective precipitation more than 48 hours ahead. Once you get within 2 days and the hour by hour forecasts come in I’m sure you’ll see some heavy snow symbols. 

For our region the general rule for snow showers is.. 

WSW’ly - Cumbria & North Lancs

direct w’ly - Lancashire

WNW’ly - Greater Manchester, North Cheshire, Peak District

NW’ly - Wirral, Merseyside, West Cheshire

NNW’ly - stronger focus on Wales

With uppers approaching -10C precipitation should mainly be of snow. 

Thats why its crap for snow here, like when is there snow showers off a WSW'ly?

[Mokidugway]

Just now, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Thats why its crap for snow here, like when is there snow showers off a WSW'ly?

There isn't we need a frontal event with an easterly component , classic battle ground stuff .

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Just now, Mokidugway said:

There isn't we need a frontal event with an easterly component , classic battle ground stuff .

Aye, everything has to be perfect though, i've noticed a lot of the time a slider low stays just to the south of cumbria.

[iand61]

Let's face it, unless your a couple of thousand feet up a mountain all of our region is crap for snow but unless I'm looking through snow tinted glasses, I'm sure that winters when I was young were pretty well guaranteed deep snow and plenty of sledging.

that said though, short legs as a child make snow look deeper.

[chiffer]

Show me the winter!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

58 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Let's face it, unless your a couple of thousand feet up a mountain all of our region is crap for snow but unless I'm looking through snow tinted glasses, I'm sure that winters when I was young were pretty well guaranteed deep snow and plenty of sledging.

that said though, short legs as a child make snow look deeper.

definitely true first bit, not last bit

[iand61]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

definitely true first bit, not last bit

I wouldn't be too sure.

i'm too young to remember 1963 but the late 60's and early 70's were my growing up period and snowy winters were more frequent, certainly up here than they are now.

[northwestsnow]

First snow symbol for moorside oldham thur night on bbc raw app !! (300m up tho)

 

[iand61]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

First snow symbol for moorside oldham thur night on bbc raw app !! (300m up tho)

 

One flake or two

One things for sure, I'll need plenty of layers on at the football on Saturday afternoon

[Mokidugway]

13 minutes ago, iand61 said:

I wouldn't be too sure.

i'm too young to remember 1963 but the late 60's and early 70's were my growing up period and snowy winters were more frequent, certainly up here than they are now.

Nether do I as was most likely just a blob of DNA 

[Joe Bloggs]

Just to show how fickle this is, the 18z GFS has less of a westerly tilt, favouring more western parts of the region. Still plenty of time for chopping and changing. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_108_1.png

Edited December 3, 2017 by Joe Bloggs

[HafrenLMP1]

I've got to the stage were I'll only believe forecasts of snow when its actually on the ground - and preferably a few inches. Boxing Day 2014 was a brief dusting, and February 2015 it lasted 20 minutes in the late afternoon before the sun came out......

[Spah1]

Looking forward to watching how this one goes wrong! 

[Mokidugway]

6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Looking forward to watching how this one goes wrong! 

Polar low for Irish Sea 

[JeffC]

3 hours ago, iand61 said:

Let's face it, unless your a couple of thousand feet up a mountain all of our region is crap for snow but unless I'm looking through snow tinted glasses, I'm sure that winters when I was young were pretty well guaranteed deep snow and plenty of sledging.

that said though, short legs as a child make snow look deeper.

We don't do too badly, used to be even better! That said I can name 2 occurrences of 24" of level snow since I moved into this house  in 1995...

[northwestsnow]

Not convinced after looking at the 00z runs, think we are going to need upgrades- however------

BBC text sounds OK for thursday  with snow showers and the raw app suggests WNW winds, ideal for Joe Bloggs and myself or anyone else in the greater manchester area.

Mentions Friday as being mainly dry which is a shame this is when the colder uppers move in- thur has uppers of around -6, think a bit of altitude might come in handy..

 

 

 

[iand61]

Just watched a uninspiring BBC forecast if it's heavy snow your looking for.

heavy rain and mild mid week followed by much colder weather on Thursday but no mention of snow on what could have been our best chance day.

 

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Just watched a uninspiring BBC forecast if it's heavy snow your looking for.

heavy rain and mild mid week followed by much colder weather on Thursday but no mention of snow on what could have been our best chance day.

 

Thur is our day ian..high is already killing off any showers by friday..

The bbc text yesterday mentioned wintry showers..todays mentions snow showers thur...

Theres hope..maybe late upgrades..

Ps i dont tend to watch bbc tv weather forecasts i find them useless.

[Joe Bloggs]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Not convinced after looking at the 00z runs, think we are going to need upgrades- however------

BBC text sounds OK for thursday  with snow showers and the raw app suggests WNW winds, ideal for Joe Bloggs and myself or anyone else in the greater manchester area.

Mentions Friday as being mainly dry which is a shame this is when the colder uppers move in- thur has uppers of around -6, think a bit of altitude might come in handy..

 

 

 

I reckon Thursday night into Friday morning is our best bet. 

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I reckon Thursday night into Friday morning is our best bet. 

Agreed, 100%

Think altitude is going to play a part again for those who catch the showers.the good news at the moment is the bbc are suggesting WNW winds- ideal for me and thee

Hopefully a few cm which should stay on the ground through Fri/Sat, i'd be very happy with that.

ps Ive checked dp's and they go negative thur evening and stay negative until sat night, not sure about wet bulbs etc..

either way id go for 150m + should be snow..

EC 96uppers-

-6/-7... can you check bulbs etc joe?

I just saw your post on TWO(i left after getting sick of the trolling btw), uppers around -7 come thur night-now wheres them showers!!

Edited December 4, 2017 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

EC snowcover charts (again no idea how acc they are), show settling snow across much of the region away from the coast, although it is reduced the further west you head.

[Day 10]

Very encouraging forecast there for our region from Sara Blizzard (have they put her on on purpose)! End of the week cold with plenty of snow showers.

[Joe Bloggs]

29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed, 100%

Think altitude is going to play a part again for those who catch the showers.the good news at the moment is the bbc are suggesting WNW winds- ideal for me and thee

Hopefully a few cm which should stay on the ground through Fri/Sat, i'd be very happy with that.

ps Ive checked dp's and they go negative thur evening and stay negative until sat night, not sure about wet bulbs etc..

either way id go for 150m + should be snow..

EC 96uppers-

-6/-7... can you check bulbs etc joe?

I just saw your post on TWO(i left after getting sick of the trolling btw), uppers around -7 come thur night-now wheres them showers!!

I will definitely check wet bulbs etc when we get in the closer range. 00z GFS has uppers at -8C at Friday 6am. I think that should provide snow to most inland areas, perhaps hail and sleet on the coast. Could be significant falls about 150m IMO. Still plenty of detail to firm up on. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I will definitely check wet bulbs etc when we get in the closer range. 00z GFS has uppers at -8C at Friday 6am. I think that should provide snow to most inland areas, perhaps hail and sleet on the coast. Could be significant falls about 150m IMO. Still plenty of detail to firm up on. 

Agreed- altitude will of course play a part, the EC snow depth chart suggests places nearer the coast are going to struggle- but GEFS snow row for liverpool is like really high
!!

Beeb will be watching i'm sure, i just cant imagine a chart like this at just 96hrs being dry?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed, 100%

Think altitude is going to play a part again for those who catch the showers.the good news at the moment is the bbc are suggesting WNW winds- ideal for me and thee

Hopefully a few cm which should stay on the ground through Fri/Sat, i'd be very happy with that.

ps Ive checked dp's and they go negative thur evening and stay negative until sat night, not sure about wet bulbs etc..

either way id go for 150m + should be snow..

EC 96uppers-

-6/-7... can you check bulbs etc joe?

I just saw your post on TWO(i left after getting sick of the trolling btw), uppers around -7 come thur night-now wheres them showers!!

I check two, not on it, not allowed new members anyway