North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[Chris.R]

10 minutes ago, Miamay said:

Grey day today. Am now looking forward to hopefully a cold snowy winter !

 It’s about time we had one. Been too long. 33 month since the last lying snow. 

Edited October 31, 2017 by Chris.R

[dodge]

I keep harking back to 2010/11.  I'm sure we had falling snow in the years since then (namely Jan 2013), but definitely 2010 we had a few falls over a foot deep...and off course one of the coldest December's on record.

It would be nice to get more than a dusting this winter.

[Day 10]

Glorious autumnal day here!

[iand61]

2 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Glorious autumnal day here!

Yeah not a bad day although cool out of the sun and it's certainly noticeable since it went dark.

better than mild and wet though.

[Mokidugway]

3 hours ago, iand61 said:

Yeah not a bad day although cool out of the sun and it's certainly noticeable since it went dark.

better than mild and wet though.

Pretty good day here too

[toggerob]

The first snow risk of this winter is now gaining more confidence on the GFS as Sunday approaches, only a 25% risk of snow falling in any showers that pass over the Peak District into the early Sunday morning hours. But it's still a risk.

[JeffC]

hopefully this will materialise!

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gctv31b50#?date=2017-11-05

 

 

[toggerob]

MWIS latest forecast is looking promising

http://www.mwis.org.uk/english-welsh-forecast.asp?fa=PD&d=2017-11-05

Remnants of overnight rain soon clearing southwards on Saturday. Then showery across western ranges with chance of local hail, thunder and summit snow. Briefly drier with a night frost before a broad area of locally heavy rain later Monday and Tuesday with many rivers and burns particularly western ranges in spate on Tuesday.

Edited November 3, 2017 by SNOW_JOKE

[SP1986]

No frost due here in the forseeable future. We usually get our first frost around late November into early December these days so we will see

Edited November 3, 2017 by SP1986

[Chris.R]

18 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

No frost due here in the forseeable future. We usually get our first frost around late November into early December these days so we will see

 Got my first ground frost on the 30th, minimum 1.7°C. I might get another one on Sunday night. 

[Chris.R]

There won’t be a widespread frost tonight as the Met Office text forecast says except on high ground near the Pennines. I believe there will however be much more widespread showers as has happened in the past with lightning a distinct possibility overnight.  I hope I’m wrong though as i’ve got  fireworks to do on both nights this weekend. 

[toggerob]

Manchester Airport METAR is forecasting thunderstorms, hail, heavy rain, and light snow from 8pm overnight. Sounds promising given many firework events locally will be starting around that time also.

[Chris.R]

 Liverpool airport is similar, going for thunderstorms, heavy rain and graupel between 1800 and 0900 with cumulonimbus.  EGGP 041423Z 0414/0512 28015KT 9999 FEW018 SCT030 TEMPO 0414/051229018G28KT 7000 SHRA BKN014 PROB30 TEMPO 0418/0509 24007KT 3500 +TSRAGS BKN008 BKN018CB

 

[NickyB]

Got thoroughly soaked earlier this evening by a combination of rain and hail but the local authority fireworks display was still wonderful. Definitely feels more seasonal this evening.

[northwestsnow]

Cold and wet for Bonfire night then! Yes i class it as tonight as most of the bonfires have been tonight.

Absolutely tipping it down, i noticed a huge drop in the number of fireworks going off around and hour ago- and then heard the rain.

Those that do have a bonfire tomorrow should have a cold frosty evenng- wish it could of been tonight but hey ho.

[Miamay]

wintry night last night. Frequent heavy rain and hail showers during the night and throughout the night. Winter has arrived !!!

 

file

[Chris.R]

No hail here but a few moderate showers. Kept missing the heavier ones. Some lightning not too far away at times. 

Edited November 5, 2017 by Chris.R

[Day 10]

8 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

No hail here but a few moderate showers. Kept missing the heavier ones. Some lightning not too far away at times. 

Heavy hail 10 mins ago. I think we may see snow this Winter Chris, several factors seem far more favourable this year. Low solar activity, weak la nina, East QBO, good eurasion snow cover, high hurricane season transporting a lot of heat to the pole, a wet September being linked to cold winters. I may of missed something our but our chances this year seem far greater in Snow starved Merseyside 

[dodge]

Nice crisp cold November 5th today, after overnight and early morning showers have passed through.  The suns out now and for once it feels typical for the time of month.  Shame the low level pesky cloud is going to roll in from the west tonight, or we could have a pretty sharp frost, might just scrape it to the east of the region if you are up early tomorrow.

Edited November 5, 2017 by dodgeredee

[Mokidugway]

45 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Heavy hail 10 mins ago. I think we may see snow this Winter Chris, several factors seem far more favourable this year. Low solar activity, weak la nina, East QBO, good eurasion snow cover, high hurricane season transporting a lot of heat to the pole, a wet September being linked to cold winters. I may of missed something our but our chances this year seem far greater in Snow starved Merseyside 

AO expected to go positive very soon ,so yes I think we are in for a coldie 

[Day 10]

19 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

AO expected to go positive very soon ,so yes I think we are in for a coldie 

Considering it ain't Winter yet, none too worried

[Chris.R]

3 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Heavy hail 10 mins ago. I think we may see snow this Winter Chris, several factors seem far more favourable this year. Low solar activity, weak la nina, East QBO, good eurasion snow cover, high hurricane season transporting a lot of heat to the pole, a wet September being linked to cold winters. I may of missed something our but our chances this year seem far greater in Snow starved Merseyside 

 Totally agree. It’s certainly looking more promising. 33 months it’s been since my last lying snow, 33 months! It’s about time we got some luck. 

Edited November 5, 2017 by Chris.R

[iand61]

Lovely autumn day and used it to give a couple of very wet lawns their last cut of the season.

as others have said, possibility of a slight frost for eastern parts of the region later before the cloud rolls in but TBH I'd prefer going to work at stupid o'clock on a Monday morning without scraping car windows.

[damianslaw]

A great weekend in the Lake District weatherwise, yesterday brought a few sharp showers, today was bone dry with sparkling visibility, superb conditions. Cold to boot, crisp excellent conditions for walking and taking photos - love this time of year when we get such weather. November can be miserable, but this is just the tonic. Plenty of sunshine as well - given how dull Sept and October were, the last few days have been very welcomed. There was a dusting of snow above about 700 metres as well, just to add to the seasonal feel. 

Have an optimistic feel about this November i.e it will be the colder sunnier drier type.. bit like last year.

[iand61]

The slightest bit of ice scraping on the cars this morning along with quite thick fog but a lovely day followed.

not much chance of a repeat tonight or tomorrow I imagine but a decent couple of days at this time of year is always a bonus.