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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
    3 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

    Surely this can't be right Lol. 

    Screenshot_20171209-112614.thumb.png.996fc8b0196a79fe84b25e464543b6dd.png

    My guess is it's because the warm front shown on this chart:

    20171209_0440.PPVG89.thumb.png.231dc96cc8b80da3f53f68d0ba7d4f71.png

    Has gone from this more recent chart (I realise they are at different timescales, but if it's not there at 6am it won't be there at 12pm):

    20171209_1012.PPVE89.thumb.png.0efa10da5d1095167786b33d6d6c6eb1.png

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    if, on the off chance that we hit the jackpot sunday/monday then who fancies joining me on a recce into the Northern England Regional threads monday night to say "hello" and then do some serious gloat

    I looked at this chart and proudly pronounced to the wife that she was getting 10-15cm tomorrow.....she just laughed  the old ones are the best......lol

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    viewimage.thumb.png.e6331b6c31a82579acf4dc538d0214e5.png viewimage1.thumb.png.dd5fa9ea7c05a52ce2ffacd4290c5880.png

    I should also mention that there could be high rainfall totals for those who aren't in line for snow.

    viewimage2.thumb.png.c7b5510709ffe9820e673f49795ba836.png

    Edited by Mapantz
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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
    6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    viewimage.thumb.png.e6331b6c31a82579acf4dc538d0214e5.png viewimage1.thumb.png.dd5fa9ea7c05a52ce2ffacd4290c5880.png

    I should also mention that there could be high rainfall totals for those who aren't in line for snow.

    viewimage2.thumb.png.c7b5510709ffe9820e673f49795ba836.png

    interesting charts bud....tantilizing for me

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    Just now, ajpoolshark said:

    interesting charts bud....tantilizing for me

    I think you'll see something, whether  it's worthwhile or not, is open for debate. I just thought i'd post them for fun as it's not worth getting hung up about it now. It's just a case of watching the radar and looking at your station's temp/dew point/wet bulb for anyone close to the zone. In the past, I have had heavy rain (which left the streets flowing like rivers) which then started falling as snow, it created a slush at first, but the snow was heavy enough to start accumulating, even on puddles! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
    9 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

    My guess is it's because the warm front shown on this chart:

    20171209_0440.PPVG89.thumb.png.231dc96cc8b80da3f53f68d0ba7d4f71.png

    Has gone from this more recent chart (I realise they are at different timescales, but if it's not there at 6am it won't be there at 12pm):

    20171209_1012.PPVE89.thumb.png.0efa10da5d1095167786b33d6d6c6eb1.png

    That's actually a good shout lol thanks for posting them FAXs I don't know why but it didn't even cross my mind to check just got to cut up in looking at an app which is something I never do also.. Bad influence's this lot... :rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater

    Clouding over here now. Temperature 1.1c

    Wheres @knocker haven’t seen him for a while? Hope he’s ok

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
    2 minutes ago, khodds said:

    Clouding over here now. Temperature 1.1c

    Wheres @knocker haven’t seen him for a while? Hope he’s ok

    I was thinking the same thing....we've had our disagreements on NW but I sincerely hope he's alright

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I saw knocker online a little while ago. I know he's not a fan of cold weather and the snow angst that occurs in the mod thread, so I expect he's taking a break - I don't blame him! lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
    2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

    I was thinking the same thing....we've had our disagreements on NW but I sincerely hope he's alright

    He normally posts in here each morning doesn’t he? And on the mad thread

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
    1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

    I saw knocker online a little while ago. I know he's not a fan of cold weather and the snow angst that occurs in the mod thread, so I expect he's taking a break - I don't blame him! lol

    Hope that’s all it is then 

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

    I can see lots of people checking the satellite imagery once that lp comes into range, to see if it's position matches where the models said it would be at certain times. 

    I  remember yet another snow event for us that went belly up at very short range where the models were still saying  snow for us but then everyone in the south east regional started  going nuts when the satellite imagery showed the system much further east then what the models were showing so they got hit and we missed out!

    Edited by Smartie
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    06z Arome model looks quite good for Gloucestershire etc;

    aromehd-42-25-0.thumb.png.753f75ad9b9c1e01ce1e1e73be4b39b0.png

    With the snow line coming south as tyr front pulls away later in the day;

    aromehd-42-30-0.thumb.png.1ea9eebe1c84428b656a393899277136.png

    Perhaps some falling wet snow isn't out of the equation for some tomorrow?

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater

    We are over due a bit of luck. You never know, tomorrow “may” be our turn! I remember watching weather forecasts when I was young, all excited because they promised snow and yet it was rain.. it’s for some reason hard to pin down even hours out (as we all know!) so maybe... just maybe we could get some luck ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    My met office app shows nothing but cold rain and then flurry at end once it clear. :wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    To top it off, we've lost our cold crisp day today. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
    3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    To top it off, we've lost our cold crisp day today. 

    Yes. Just adding more salt to the wound. :sorry:

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    2.7c here, not exactly mild for me. Although we know what’s coming. Sob sob 

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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol
    20 minutes ago, AWD said:

    06z Arome model looks quite good for Gloucestershire etc;

    aromehd-42-25-0.thumb.png.753f75ad9b9c1e01ce1e1e73be4b39b0.png

    With the snow line coming south as tyr front pulls away later in the day;

    aromehd-42-30-0.thumb.png.1ea9eebe1c84428b656a393899277136.png

    Perhaps some falling wet snow isn't out of the equation for some tomorrow?

    I am literally sat on the edge between rain and snow going from those charts. Living 10 miles North of Bristol can be interesting in these sort of set ups. There could be settling snow 10 miles north of me (would make sense as it is towards Cotswolds) but rain as I travel South to work into the city.

    Edited by Chris K
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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
    2 minutes ago, Chris K said:

    I am literally sat on the edge between rain and snow going from those charts. Living 10 miles North of Bristol can be interesting in these sort of set ups. There could be settling snow 10 miles north of me (would make sense as it is towards Cotswolds) but rain as I travel South to work into the city.

    have you got any elevation in your locale Chris?....might be critical!......I've gone from rather downbeat first thing this morning to cautiously optimistic (probably the kiss of death saying that lol)

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    A mild 4.2 °C here, but depressingly cloudy.

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    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

    Cloudy and 4.3°C although feels much colder than that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol
    1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

    have you got any elevation in your locale Chris?....might be critical!......I've gone from rather downbeat first thing this morning to cautiously optimistic (probably the kiss of death saying that lol)

    Not where I live - only about 50m asl, a few miles NE of the old Severn Crossing. However it would not take long heading further NE to reach higher elevation. We may get some back-edge flurries going from this morning's charts but I imagine it will struggle to settle due to the amount of rain beforehand.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Something else has taken my fancy (as someone who likes weather statistics) the windchill on Monday from a strong NE/NNE wind could be very significant during the early hours.

    chill.thumb.png.907fe0e682d2bd3331160440949e35a1.png

    Don't take those windchill's at face value, I find nearly all public charts that show them, to be massively overplayed. However, it could be the coldest  windchill for quite some time!

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