South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

[Mapantz]

Still.. nothing really excites me in the output for my locale. It looks as though rain totals may start increase for parts of the South though, after a dry November.

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Still.. nothing really excites me in the output for my locale. It looks as though rain totals may start increase for parts of the South though, after a dry November.

Get down the pub and fill your glass up ?

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Get down the pub and fill your glass up ?

I don't drink, anymore.

[MidnightSnow]

I know precipitation charts shouldn't be taken seriously at this stage, but I believe this chart sums up the South West pretty well.

[Mapantz]

I'm just wondering why SM is saying that London is under -4 850's on the EPS mean at 96 hours? The mean charts I've had a look at, show London at between -1 and -2.

Edited December 6, 2017 by Mapantz

[SteveB]

10.4c and raining. Hope it's not 3c and raining come the weekend.

[karlos1983]

Ok here’s my punt at snow fall. Circle is the sweet spot, oval is decent snow, places around that circle see snow but not accumulating to huge amounts. Like I said I don’t like sitting in the fence.

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

13 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

I know precipitation charts shouldn't be taken seriously at this stage, but I believe this chart sums up the South West pretty well.

That chart WILL be wrong 99% of the time. Not because its not good for Cardiff but that's for four days away. They don't even know where the snow will be yet as it keeps changing run to run, let's wait and see what the 18z brings.

[SteveB]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Ok here’s my punt at snow fall. Circle is the sweet spot, oval is decent snow, places around that circle see snow but not accumulating to huge amounts. Like I said I don’t like sitting in the fence.

 

Hope your right, because at the moment it looks like rain for my area Sunday. Plenty can  and will change by then.

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Hope your right, because at the moment it looks like rain for my area Sunday. Plenty can  and will change by then.

You will notice the ones so confident of the snow area are those currently under it. I don’t mind if it misses our region, it’s a fact of life living where we live, but I’m  not convinced. 18z will be interesting 

Edited December 6, 2017 by karlos1983

[Summer Sun]

15 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Hope your right, because at the moment it looks like rain for my area Sunday. Plenty can  and will change by then.

Looks mild for the south on Sunday albeit probably feeling quite chilly with the wind & rain

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Looks mild for the south on Sunday albeit probably feeling quite chilly with the wind & rain

“For now”....

[Ciderwithrosie]

Never mind Friday, Saturday Sunda  and all that will it won't it white stuff , where has the wind come from ?????? And I mean the wind weatherwise ! It's blowing a hoolie outside . I thought Caroline was going to vent her spleen over Scotland. 

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Shall we just enjoy the snow tomorrow night first before worrying or working out what's going to happen Sunday. For all we know there could be surprises before that leading to a lot of snow.

[birdman]

39 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Ok here’s my punt at snow fall. Circle is the sweet spot, oval is decent snow, places around that circle see snow but not accumulating to huge amounts. Like I said I don’t like sitting in the fence.

 

You've jumped off the fence and landed in my garden! I hope you're right! ?

[Paul T]

HGT 500-1000 looks great for Friday and the 850's -9 widely across the SW. 

If the showers aren't snow with that set up you might aswell give up.  

Positioning of the low will change a fair bit for Sunday. What I would like to see is the 850's a little cooler, but either way the sea is pretty warm still so inland and altitude will be particularly important.

[khodds]

Oh my god I’m actually really nervous re 18z!! What on earth is wrong with me?! I need to get a life!!

edit: oh god, the word norf has been mentioned. We are all doomed 

Edited December 6, 2017 by khodds

[festivalking]

not going well for us shifted north

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, khodds said:

Oh my god I’m actually really nervous re 18z!! What on earth is wrong with me?! I need to get a life!!

Looks a bit further north atm. Sad face 

[khodds]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Looks a bit further north atm. Sad face 

There is still time.. patience... it’ll all be fine...  

[festivalking]

Just now, khodds said:

There is still time.. patience... it’ll all be fine...  

triple gin please

[karlos1983]

Just now, khodds said:

There is still time.. patience... it’ll all be fine...  

I’m nowhere near giving up khodds!!

meanwhile Friday still looks good! ?

[khodds]

On that note, I need my nightly Baileys tipple. Calm the nerves until the 00z runs

[MidnightSnow]

It would be a lot worse if all the eggs were in one basket for Sunday. We have Friday to look forward to which isn't looking marginal at all. 

[mrsmall]

I think it’ll correct south. Every low system always does within the final 18-24 hrs. How many storms /systems forecast over us always end up over the channel. Keep the faith people.