South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

[jethro]

Rumours around that we may wake up to scenes like this at the end of the week. Any truth in them? Chances of coming true? If so, when's it most likely to happen? Just trying to plan my week...aiming on getting to Bath Christmas Market at some point, if it's going to snow I'll wait until then in the hope it reduces the number of folk there, making it less of a nightmare.

[SteveB]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Surprisingly low minimum last night at 1.5C. Cloudy morning and currently 5C.

All eyes on Thursday onwards and fingers crossed for something more than a ten minute snow flurry like last week!

Can we get our first substantial snow fall for a few years end of this week?

All eyes will be on the radar and lamp post  come Friday!

[knocker]

28 minutes ago, jethro said:

Rumours around that we may wake up to scenes like this at the end of the week. Any truth in them? Chances of coming true? If so, when's it most likely to happen? Just trying to plan my week...aiming on getting to Bath Christmas Market at some point, if it's going to snow I'll wait until then in the hope it reduces the number of folk there, making it less of a nightmare.

You are a wag Jethro. Still a lot of doubt vis detail over the weekend but your best bet may be Friday with wintry showers in the strong unstable NW wind. I certainly wouldn't venture forth to a market. A quick shufty at the forecast sounding for the Bath area

[jethro]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

You are a wag Jethro. Still a lot of doubt vis detail over the weekend but your best bet may be Friday with wintry showers in the strong unstable NW wind. I certainly wouldn't venture forth to a market. A quick shufty at the forecast sounding for the Bath area

You are a star Knocker, thank you. A cold, snowy day would be perfect for market shopping. Cold doesn't bother me, with a Landy, getting around isn't a problem, but it would be a problem for lots of folk getting to Bath. The market stalls will still be open as lots of the traders stay in Bath, plus as it costs several thousand pounds to have one of the cabins they'll do their best to sell whenever possible. Smaller crowds would be heaven, might stand a vague chance of actually seeing what's on the stalls.

 

[khodds]

11 minutes ago, knocker said:

You are a wag Jethro. Still a lot of doubt vis detail over the weekend but your best bet may be Friday with wintry showers in the strong unstable NW wind. I certainly wouldn't venture forth to a market. A quick shufty at the forecast sounding for the Bath area

What does the above chart show knocker? I have no idea how to translate it. Thanks 

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, khodds said:

What does the above chart show knocker? I have no idea how to translate it. Thanks 

Basically it is showing the area being in a very cold north westerly airstream with a very steep lapse rate in the lower regions which is the rate of fall of the temperature as you ascend. You can see the surface temp is 3C and the 850mb is near -10C. This basically means the aitmass is unstable and conducive to the build up to large Cu and Cbs and thus wintry showers. Other factors do come into play such as proximity to north facing coasts, etc. so it is not necessarily straightforward.

For a much fuller and better explanation of skew-t diagrams I recommend JH s guide in the learners section (which I had a devil of a job finding)

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/16002-a-simple-guide-to-understanding-skew-t-diagrams/

[khodds]

Thanks Knocker - I’ll have a look at this

[Mapantz]

Hmmm

I have a ton of washing to do but humidity is at 99%

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, SteveB said:

Can we get our first substantial snow fall for a few years end of this week?

All eyes will be on the radar and lamp post  come Friday!

Would be nice wouldn't it. A northerly turned westerly at the last minute is normally good here. Used to have them more often.

[Polar Bear]

Hmm my forecast for Friday is showing mainly westerly (some north westerley, a bit of cloud, a bit of sun, no precipitation... but low temps not much above 4 degrees during the day ... no snow I feel for us!

[Polar Bear]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Would be nice wouldn't it. A northerly turned westerly at the last minute is normally good here. Used to have them more often.

Thought it was mainly a northerly that encouraged the white stuff?..  the extent of my meteorological expertise is the nursery rhyme. Ha Ha

" When the north wind doth blow, then we shall have snow, And what will poor Robin do then?
Poor thing. He’ll sit in a barn, And keep himself warm, And hide his head under his wing,
Poor thing"

[khodds]

My grandad always used to say that saying!

Its looking better for us than anytime in the last few winters, I can’t flipping wait!

[Polar Bear]

2 minutes ago, khodds said:

My grandad always used to say that saying!

Its looking better for us than anytime in the last few winters, I can’t flipping wait!

I am going to (try to) remain calm this time and not think it will happen, ... got too much to do and I'm sure I scare any chance of it away! (Obviously though deep down......ssshhh just don't tell anyone!)

[khodds]

5 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

I am going to (try to) remain calm this time and not think it will happen, ... got too much to do and I'm sure I scare any chance of it away! (Obviously though deep down......ssshhh just don't tell anyone!)

Me too! We can try to keep calm together! At least my festive bottle of baileys is open.. that will calm me down of an evening 

[Polar Bear]

3 minutes ago, khodds said:

Me too! We can try to keep calm together! At least my festive bottle of baileys is open.. that will calm me down of an evening 

Good call ...like the Bailey's idea! Ok Ill keep checking in on your to see how our calmometres are working towards the end of the week... Mine is at Level 3 this morning

[Polar Bear]

Oh I see the M4 is shut this weekend near Newbury again for works...so if you want to snow at the weekend Sky, and all over the M4, crack on - we wont be using that section so it is all yours... (and the workmen of course) https://www.newburytoday.co.uk/news/news/23020/m4-to-close-for-the-next-two-weekends.html

[festivalking]

The met office and BBC weather apps are being proper cheeky! You look one minute and it suggests sleet and snow showers IMBY then you look again and it changes to cloudy and dry.....I think i'd back myself to see at least something wintery on friday and Saturday alas nothing to settle mind

[Mapantz]

Not only are they being cheeky, they have failed appallingly in today's forecast. Blue skies they said, but not a glimpse of the sun - overcast all day!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I have no friggin' chance? Ready for the magical 20c I am. All reeeeady! ...

[SteveB]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Would be nice wouldn't it. A northerly turned westerly at the last minute is normally good here. Used to have them more often.

It seems to be always a fine line for us here in the West Country, with that bloomin M4 corridor etc etc.

Hopefully a bit of luck for once, would be lovely to see settling snow again - it's been a while.

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, Polar Bear said:

Thought it was mainly a northerly that encouraged the white stuff?..  the extent of my meteorological expertise is the nursery rhyme. Ha Ha

" When the north wind doth blow, then we shall have snow, And what will poor Robin do then?
Poor thing. He’ll sit in a barn, And keep himself warm, And hide his head under his wing,
Poor thing"

Lol yes indeed, I mean a westerly or northwesterly with a northerly source so the showers come inland e.g. Dec 2009 and Christmas 2004.

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, SteveB said:

It seems to be always a fine line for us here in the West Country, with that bloomin M4 corridor etc etc.

Hopefully a bit of luck for once, would be lovely to see settling snow again - it's been a while.

Should be alright as long as there's actually some precipitation when it's cold enough haha. The two have rarely coincided in last few years.

[Nights King]

Looking more and more like a rain event for us south westerners after brief northerly 

Still time for it to change in our favor but I am not liking the trend. 

[Mapantz]

10 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Looking more and more like a rain event for us south westerners after brief northerly 

It was looking like that from the beginning lol

That aside, it looks like another terrible week of weather. The forecast has completely changed in the space of 12 hours. I caught a weather bulletin while I was in bed last night..today was meant to be glorious, and clear tonight. It was overcast all day, and it still is now. Apart from Friday, it's meant to be gloomy all week. I keep reading on here how it has been such a good end to Autumn and start to Winter in terms of cold. I'm guessing none of these people record their own weather data, because it was far colder at the end of Autumn and beginning of Winter last year. I'd also had 7 air frosts up until this point last year. This year it has been 1.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Mapantz

[Nights King]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It was looking like that from the beginning lol

That aside, it looks like another terrible week of weather. The forecast has completely changed in the space of 12 hours. I caught a weather bulletin while I was in bed last night..today was meant to be glorious, and clear tonight. It was overcast all day, and it still is now. Apart from Friday, it's meant to be gloomy all week. I keep reading on here how it has been such a good end to Autumn and start to Winter in terms of cold. I'm guessing none of these people record their own weather data, because it was far colder at the end of Autumn and beginning of Winter last year. I'd also had 7 air frosts up until this point last year. This year it has been 1.

You are right we had some decent frosts last year. I just don't see anyone seeing a covering of snow away from Dartmoor and Exmoor regions exposed to north winds.

Cold rain in the worst.