South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

[Dean E]

Afternoon fellow Southern/South Westerners, been a while since I posted in here.

Figures crossed for you in Northern parts of the region, looks like you may at least get something!

Living on the South Coast always has its advantages though, so instead of the sledge, I'll get my kite out 

[festivalking]

If progress of the rain is slowed is this a sign things are heading south. I'm we'l out the game but if snow was seen down into north Dorset that would be a great result for the region compared to what has been on offer

[Dean E]

6 minutes ago, festivalking said:

If progress of the rain is slowed is this a sign things are heading south. I'm we'l out the game but if snow was seen down into north Dorset that would be a great result for the region compared to what has been on offer

Assuming that the front/Low slows or stalls or moves 50-100 miles further south, then yeah colder air has a better chance of undercutting. Better get our hair dryers out! 

Here's the where the Low is 'Forecast' to develop (red circle).

This is a observations are around 2pm (must add that this is mostly computerised rather than human input, but fairly accurate)

Edited December 9, 2017 by Dean E

[karlos1983]

More south corrections. Viewing charts from the cinema ooops. Getting daggers ?

[Paul T]

Snow Sunday evening is likely for Somerset and Dorset, overnight tonight will be rain

[wallopweather]

MOD talk suggesting a shift south bringing more of Southern England in to play

[Dean E]

Yeah appears to be a little jump of the lows centre to the south. Looks like back edge snow chances may increase.

Snow line now towards the far SE in relation to Sunday night/Mondays low over France too.

Interesting times!

[wimblettben]

Good news for you lot who like snow then but another let down for the wind.

If its moving further south then the winds will be purely out in the channel.

[Ciderwithrosie]

28 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

More south corrections. Viewing charts from the cinema ooops. Getting daggers ?

Tsk tsk tsk lol..my kids have grown up but I'm still gong to persuade them that they want to see the film with me. 

 

Its the wind im more concerned with tomorrow . Don't mind what it does to be honest . I'm happy if people enjoy it and just hope that everyone is safe . 

Goig to get my glasses now.see you all later folks. 

[knocker]

Rain't already arrived here, Ns, St

[AWD]

Will do a proper post with supporting data when I have some clothes on, but let's just say some high res French models have brought tomorrow's snow line down to the M4 corridor now.

Those living in Gloucs, North Wiltshire, Oxfordshire etc could still have a chance.

[radiohead]

12Z AROME

[Nick_Somerset]

29 minutes ago, wallopweather said:

MOD talk suggesting a shift south bringing more of Southern England in to play

How far south are they talking?

[AWD]

To add to my above post, here is the 12z Arome;

And the 12z Arpege, which shows a notable shift south from its previous 06z output;

As you can see, we aren't a million miles away from some of us seeing a;

- snow/rain/snow

- rain/snow

- all snow

- all rain events.

Worth noting, most models support some degree of back edge light snow falling tomorrow evening once the main front pulls SE.  Nothing noteworthy etc, but a little more falling snow is possible, even if we do get rain through the day.

 

 

Edited December 9, 2017 by AWD

[Mapantz]

27 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

If its moving further south then the winds will be purely out in the channel.

The 12Z GFS wind gusts are perfectly inline with the MetO warning.

[noggin]

1 hour ago, khodds said:

I’ve got to collect my daughter in a mo and there’s no phone network where she is.. not sure how I’ll cope without being able to keep one eye on here!! 

From what I can see,  it's probably best not to look anyway! The MetO has no snow for us, just heavy rain and gale force winds tonight and into tomorrow. Just another damp squib like it always is. Ho hum.

Ah, daughters.....bless 'em. I've got a couple of those!

[AWD]

Another model very similar to the 2 above, the 12z Hirlam;

[*Stormforce~beka*]

41 minutes ago, wallopweather said:

MOD talk suggesting a shift south bringing more of Southern England in to play

Course they are! Trying to tease us! Don't believe a word ...

[Mapantz]

No change down here near the coast. 9 - 10°C and rain. By the time the temperature get down to low figures, the precip has cleared off.

[shotski]

Just now, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Course they are! Trying to tease us! Don't believe a word ...

They could be spot on ??

[Mapantz]

Just now, shotski said:

They could be spot on ??

Don't believe that. It is only using model data. It showed a snow shower on me, yesterday, but it was rain.

[MidnightSnow]

2 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Course they are! Trying to tease us! Don't believe a word ...

They're just saying what the models are showing.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Just now, MidnightSnow said:

They're just saying what the models are showing.

I'm still a firm non believer lol! :-D It won't cross that M4. It's too strong that motor way :-D

[MidnightSnow]

I live 13 miles north of the M4... doesn't get much more borderline than that. 

[wimblettben]

20 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The 12Z GFS wind gusts are perfectly inline with the MetO warning.

Only one of the models show this, many others don't, although it could chop and change a bit more though of course.

The tight isobars are just south of the centre, and if the precipitation is where the centre is and its now shifting south, then there winds will be moving south as well.

The southward trend if correct will take most of the winds out to the channel, not rocket science!

Edited December 9, 2017 by wimblettben