South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

You are right we had some decent frosts last year. I just don't see anyone seeing a covering of snow away from Dartmoor and Exmoor regions exposed to north winds.

Cold rain in the worst. 

Friday morning until Saturday evening model guidance suggests parameters might be good enough for snowfall for our region.

Just got to find somewhere/something to deliver some PPN during this timeframe now.

After that all very uncertain and complex, although we are sure outside favourites for anything wintry as things stand.

For now, I'm just looking towards Friday/Saturday to see what temps I will achieve, what windchill temp I will experience & whether I can muster up a flurry or two.  I'll wait until the end of the week before analysing next week too much.

[Argyle1980]

I have the same concerns as most here and in full agreement that if it’s snow you want then head to The Moors! Otherwise it’s a waiting game but still great to see a possibility of snow for our area so early in Winter. 

 

 

[festivalking]

Much tittering on the MAD thread about Monday. Looking like a second snowy slider might make landfall slap dang right across the country. For us an M4 job sadly but I still think it might drop further south and west meaning more parts of our region could get in on the game. 

Imagine a world where our region takes the prize leaving the rest of regional threads seething in our wake 

[Mapantz]

I don't know about anyone else's forecast for their region, but here it is showing just two cold days. How epic is that??

[khodds]

I sense doom and gloom... come on people - it’s our best chance of cold/snowy weather in years! I am very excited!! 

[Mapantz]

8 minutes ago, khodds said:

I sense doom and gloom... come on people - it’s our best chance of cold/snowy weather in years! I am very excited!! 

That all depends on where you live i'm afraid. I see nothing in the short to medium term for where I live, that excites me. Anything coming from the NW/N is really just an insult for this geographical position. It doesn't matter how cold the uppers are, it's just watered down at the surface. I remember checking the current uppers last weekend, and it was showing -7 to -8, and I didn't even manage a frost. It needs to be slack pressure with cold uppers to create some nice sub-zero temperatures, or an Easterly, nothing else will cause any excitement.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Mapantz

[khodds]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

That all depends on where you live i'm afraid. I see nothing in the short to medium term for where I live, that excites me. Anything coming from the NW/N is really just an insult for this geographical position. It doesn't matter how cold the uppers are, it's just watered down at the surface. I remember checking the current uppers last weekend, and it was showing -7 to -8, and I didn't even manage a frost. It needs to be slack pressure with cold uppers to create some nice sub-zero temperatures, or an Easterly, nothing else will cause any excitement.

Waaahhh ? ok. On that note, I’m off to bed 

[Daniel*]

22 minutes ago, khodds said:

Waaahhh ? ok. On that note, I’m off to bed 

I think you will see frequent wintry showers in Somerset better placed than Pantz! You’ll be watching the precip come in from Wales and there could be a fair bit.

[MidnightSnow]

Ahhh, good old precipitation charts. Lovely to look at.... <0.1% chance of happening. 

Bank
 

[kevvo]

For us in the Dorset area, the only thing that produces decent snowfall, is when cold northerlies or easterlies set in and a depression wanders in from the south west, they bang into each other & we get snow. Rare as hens teeth these days, but we live in hope. 

[Nights King]

Well gfs would be a pleasant surprise for us Monday if it came off but my bet is ecm or ukmo dross. 

[fromey]

This is on Twitter, make of it what you will. 

 

ffomey 

[AWD]

Based on all 0z Model and ens guidance I have seen this morning;

Chance of falling snow fri - sun;  75%

Chance of small dustings of snow over exposed moors/hills;  50%

Chance of small dustings of snow in low level inland areas;  30%

Chance of significant/disruptive falls of snow between Fri & Sun Inclusive;  10%

[karlos1983]

33 minutes ago, AWD said:

Based on all 0z Model and ens guidance I have seen this morning;

Chance of falling snow fri - sun;  75%

Chance of small dustings of snow over exposed moors/hills;  50%

Chance of small dustings of snow in low level inland areas;  30%

Chance of significant/disruptive falls of snow between Fri & Sun Inclusive;  10%

Yep I’d say that’s reasonable. You can bet your bottom dollar now the GFs has moved towards the ECM, the 12z ECM will show a slider further west just to raise some false hope. 

[Ciderwithrosie]

Well I never  ! The met office have issued a weather warning ⚠️ for snow and ice for my region through Wales and up into Scotland for Friday and Saturday ! 

Ive been trying to follow the forecast  on the model watch to try and learn and to post something have decent on here but can't make any sense out of it all I'm afraid . 

So , however does this mean that this " sliding low" that everyone harps on about means that when the very cold air slides down any rain comes into contact with very cold air we have snow? so why do people get uppity about it? It's not as though they can stop it from sliding. .

Im very much of the opinion that the weather will do and does indeed do whatever it wants to when it wants to. 

Im not grumpy I'm just genuinely puzzled and came on here to try and learn things, but I'm not doing very well. 

 

In then,eamtime im enjoying some sun , not enjoying pneumonia and pleurisy, but the sun makes it bearable and I shall endeavour to try and learn something . 

Hope everyone is having a reasonable day 

[Nights King]

Met office warning fits my thoughts from a couple of days ago... Cold and dry for most of us. Need a trough in the flow to bring anything for rest of us starved of anything for last 5 years.  

[kevvo]

• Met office now has sleet at 3am Friday for Purbecks. Massive upgrade! Must get an early night Thursday 

00:00	03:00	06:00	09:00	12:00	15:00	18:00	21:00

[festivalking]

Yep as alluded to a weather warning for much of devon and cornwall has been issued by the MO. Laughable though as most areas on the MO app suggest rain and the odd sleet shower. Of course areas above 350 metres are in for a couple of days of constant snow showers. So I think at the moment its all a bit misleading. What is true the road from Plymouth to Princetown is gonna be gridlocked come saturday!!!

Any fully expect the warning to become diluted in the next day to suggest just the moors are at risk of snow.

Edited December 5, 2017 by festivalking

[festivalking]

1 hour ago, kevvo said:

• Met office now has sleet at 3am Friday for Purbecks. Massive upgrade! Must get an early night Thursday 

00:00	03:00	06:00	09:00	12:00	15:00	18:00	21:00

Hey there I'm a purbeck refugee grew up in Worth Matravers. Best snowfall we had was February 1994, epic sledging round the hills up there!

[Mapantz]

Not even sleet shown for here, just a good ol' single rain drop!

[kevvo]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Not even sleet shown for here, just a good ol' single rain drop!

Just noticed that on the Met office update. The 0300 sleet has been dropped. Ah well, a good nights sleep then.

[festivalking]

1 minute ago, kevvo said:

Just noticed that on the Met office update. The 0300 sleet has been dropped. Ah well, a good nights sleep then.

Does it on purpose to lure you in!!

 

[fromey]

Personally I will be following fergies tweets for the more local details, also John Hammonds blog is very good .

 

fromey  

[festivalking]

14 minutes ago, fromey said:

Personally I will be following fergies tweets for the more local details, also John Hammonds blog is very good .

 

fromey  

Have you a link to John's blog?

[weirpig]

W COUNTRY FRI: This warning is for W Somerset/N Devon in particular, albeit snow showers will likely occur (less disruptively) across other parts of the @bbcpointswest region too

 

There we go guys   snow could be anywhere in your region