South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

[Evening thunder]

Bit of a late reply but we also had the the orange/red-pink sun and weird light on Monday morning. Was impressive to see and the dust/smoke suddenly cleared just before noon.

I found these satellite images interesting, you can clearly see the dust/smoke in the frontal band.

 

and yesterday a smokey/dusty plume stretched all the way from SE England across to Russia!


As for the weather since then a damp afternoon/evening yesterday with 3.4mm of rain and a lot colder than the day before (Monday was 18C at 7am, Tuesday 5C with a max of 12.8C)

[Dorsetbred]

Morning all, overcast and damp from yesterday’s rainfall, currently 10.4C

[knocker]

Cloud has broken with some ragged Strato/Cu and quite pleasant/

[karlos1983]

Wales was fun. Although I learnt a valuable lesson, don’t hold your kestrel in the air for long periods without gloves. My index and forefinger went completely numb and had pins and needles for about an hour. Thought I killed the two most important digits. Thankfully my 1 & 2 finger salute can continue. 

Whats the crack with Saturday, are we going to get Brian? I’ve had my eye off the ball since Monday.

[karlos1983]

Timing was incredible there, Warming just popped up on my phone.

could see some cosstal flooding as this will coincide with high tide apparently.

Edited October 18, 2017 by karlos1983

[karlos1983]

*warning 

[Jen Beachcomber]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Wales was fun. Although I learnt a valuable lesson, don’t hold your kestrel in the air for long periods without gloves. My index and forefinger went completely numb and had pins and needles for about an hour. Thought I killed the two most important digits. Thankfully my 1 & 2 finger salute can continue. 

Whats the crack with Saturday, are we going to get Brian? I’ve had my eye off the ball since Monday.

Where did you end up karlos? and what did you peek at? I went to Freshwater West and my friend you lives a mile up the valley from the beach says her's peeked at 75mph about 4:30pm 

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, Jen Beachcomber said:

Where did you end up karlos? and what did you peek at? I went to Freshwater West and my friend you lives a mile up the valley from the beach says her's peeked at 75mph about 4:30pm 

I recorded a peak gust of 72.6mph & was getting mean winds of 47mph.

I was at 650ft ASL in a village called Cross-inn near New Quay West Wales. Roughly 20 Miles South of Aberystwyth.

was at around 5pm.  

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Timing was incredible there, Warming just popped up on my phone.

could see some cosstal flooding as this will coincide with high tide apparently.

If this is to be named Brian  it will have to be upgraded to an amber warning, and we're only one step away. I suspect it might well do! A new moon is today and the Spring tide is tomorrow, so the tides will still be large by Saturday. My tide book shows the Spring tide to be 2.4m at Poole Quay on Thursday, which is a reasonably high-ish one. On Saturday, the standard height is expected to be 2.2m, so I can understand the threat of flooding when coinciding this with the deep area of low pressure.
The tides are perfect for fishing as well, high tides are late at night, so it would have been perfect for evening fishing. It's a shame the weather isn't playing ball.

Edited October 18, 2017 by Mapantz

[karlos1983]

29 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

If this is to be named Brian  it will have to be upgraded to an amber warning, and we're only one step away. I suspect it might well do! A new moon is today and the Spring tide is tomorrow, so the tides will still be large by Saturday. My tide book shows the Spring tide to be 2.4m at Poole Quay on Thursday, which is a reasonably high-ish one. On Saturday, the standard height is expected to be 2.2m, so I can understand the threat of flooding when coinciding this with the deep area of low pressure.
The tides are perfect for fishing as well, high tides are late at night, so it would have been perfect for evening fishing. It's a shame the weather isn't playing ball.

Well, if we can’t fish, chasing the weather is a good second 

[karlos1983]

GFS seems fairly keen to take this system Further north with every run though, so I’m not convinced at the moment that we will take the brunt of this storm just yet. 

[Rich_Clements]

A right damp miserable night here with mist as well,

[knocker]

Not a bad morning with plenty of Ci around. Temp 14C and a fair southerly breeze.

[knocker]

Cloud already thickening up here with Cs/As

[Dorsetbred]

After a very misty night, almost 5mm of rain to greet the morning. Currently overcast, rain in the near vicinity according to radar with a breeze in fron the ESE. Temp 15C.

[Andy Bown]

Torrential rain in the last half hour after drizzle and showers earlier, to think the Countryfile forecast had the Atlantic fronts over this part of the region first thing this morning, instead we have a deluge from the South!

[karlos1983]

Could get tad breezy come the weekend if the Aperge is on the money. Bristol Channel especially and along the south coast.

 

[lettice]

Light grey, overcast.
15.9c, Easterly light wind 3-4mph, 1003.7 hPa
Some light drizzly rain this morning, 0.4mm

 

 

[Dorsetbred]

53 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Could get tad breezy come the weekend if the Aperge is on the money. Bristol Channel especially and along the south coast.

 

Interesting stage of forecasting, whilst some route the low further north, if the enclosed were to happen we are in for a blustery evening. All to play for..

[knocker]

Rain already into here. Ns and St and wind picking up

[JWT]

Wind has picked up herearly in the last hour plus rain looking the models things could get interesting later local weather has storm warning for 85km/h gusts later 

[karlos1983]

2 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

Interesting stage of forecasting, whilst some route the low further north, if the enclosed were to happen we are in for a blustery evening. All to play for..

Aperge tends to be pretty good at this range. Next couple runs should firm up on the detail. Either way shore road will be interesting Saturday morning. I’ll be heading down there at high tide. Think it’s around 10:30am ish

Edited October 19, 2017 by karlos1983

[Andy Bown]

16mm this morning, the wettest spell for quite a while . Did any predictions have the rain from the South being far enough West to virtually merge with the Atlantic front!?

[karlos1983]

So Met E have named the storm Brian. Wonder if we will see Amber warnings replacing yellows. 

[knocker]

The cold front is through here, now broken cloud with Cu.