Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

[Flotsam]

Ha, so it wasn't just here then.  Had exactly the same Yellow to orange sky here, was actually on the phone to my sis when it went yellow and I mentioned that it looked snowy to her.  As Hairy Celt said, temps are way too high, but an odd coloured sky nonetheless.

[Hairy Celt]

1 hour ago, mardatha said:

It was really overcast and the hillside was yellow. Then turned to orange, def odd. Like looking through a Quality Street wrapper lol

Dirty European air perhaps? Yay, we voted Brexit, we won't have to interact with their weather soon

[Northernlights]

Finished liting winter store of neeps for inside cattle in perfect ground and weather conditions today.  Cows go out every day to a row of neeps behind an electric fence so only hard freezing conditions stop them from eating.Big relief all round. Load of concentrate feed here late afternoon. If weather is bad later this week then we are mostly under cover feeding cattle.

[NorthernRab]

STV going for snowier conditions than Auntie. Wonder who'll be closer?

[Hairy Celt]

18 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

STV going for snowier conditions than Auntie. Wonder who'll be closer?

They'll both be wrong. Stupid TV or Biased bum-bumping Cronies.

 

 

I'm not having a good day.

[snowidea]

Although Falkirk sits just outside of the current Met Office  weather warning area I can confirm we'll actually get a right pasting. This is because I've booked the day off to go Xmas shopping and have a sneaky lunch with Mr Snowidea while the kids are in school. So just like people fitting winter tyres jinxes the cold, I've now jinxed my lovely planned kid free day off by guaranteeing so much snow the school will be closed 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Looks like I might see some snaw in Oslo the morn.

https://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Oslo/Oslo/Oslo/

Will try and bring some back with me on Thursday.

[101_North]

Latest GFS now has Sunday's low further south with the snow risk largely confined to the West.

The search for some snow potential for the Edinburgh area continues! Always going to be difficult in these setups.

 

Edited December 6, 2017 by 101_North

[over_the_rainbow]

Never great for us East of the central belt in these setups is it @101_North - when its N and NW etc? I was planning on some Christmas shopping in Edinburgh at the weekend so at least I don't think the drive should be bad.

However looks like a few on here in the borders (and my folks in the Highlands possibly too) will do well, so please do share your pics, they are always good to see. 

Edited December 6, 2017 by over_the_rainbow

[101_North]

Just for fun as these depth chart are generally complete pish . Doesn't fit with the GFS (and I think UKMO) taking the system on Sunday south.

Net Weather model still looking good for Central Belt:

Could be fascinating few days to track the corrections of the system - only Wednesday afterall! Who knows where the system will eventually hit!

Edited December 6, 2017 by 101_North

[mistyqueen]

A wee bit blustery this morning and so mild! All change tomorrow so best get the rest of my batteries charged up!

 

 

[NorthernRab]

14 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

They'll both be wrong. Stupid TV or Biased bum-bumping Cronies.

 

 

I'm not having a good day.

New dawn, new day. Met have moved towards STV in their forecast.

[Jo Farrow]

Tomorrow 

[NorthernRab]

Just occurred to me when looking at some of the upper air charts - are we not in polar low territory from tomorrow night for a couple days? They're rare, of course, but you never know.

[Jo Farrow]

17 hours ago, NorthernRab said:

STV going for snowier conditions than Auntie. Wonder who'll be closer?

They both run off Met Office data

[Jo Farrow]

Along with Storm force winds, gusts over 90mph, the following blizzards, there will be large waves and risk of flooding. More details http://media.sepa.org.uk/statements/2017/flooding-situation-6-december-2017/  From SEPA

[mistyqueen]

Met Office have now upgraded storm to Amber warning. Hhhmmmmm, that's a wee bit worrying!

[NorthernRab]

29 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

They both run off Met Office data

Interesting, thanks! Are the forecasts automated do you know, or are they edited some by staff? Interesting to see the divergence between the two given that they work off the same data (and probably only noticed by the likes of myself who is a bit of a weather enthusiast and has been checked the two frequently over the last 48 hours)!

[Ruzzi]

5 hours ago, 101_North said:

Latest GFS now has Sunday's low further south with the snow risk largely confined to the West.

The search for some snow potential for the Edinburgh area continues! Always going to be difficult in these setups.

 

Maybe not too long, the 'slider' going further south at least keeps us in the cold and by Tuesday morning there's another system heading in that shows some pretty significant opportunity for snowfall, with some parts of central and southern Scotland getting snow for over 24 hours, especially with some moderate elevation. Admittedly it may not stay as snow in Edinburgh but certainly possible. Obviously it's still 6 days away and will most definitely change but if the event on Sunday misses to the south, then we still at least have further opportunity in the days afterwards. I'd be amazed if central, southern Scotland doesn't at least get one half decent accumulation over the next week to 10 days. 

(The last photo is dew points at 9am on Tuesday when the precipitation hits)

[Jo Farrow]

12 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

Interesting, thanks! Are the forecasts automated do you know, or are they edited some by staff? Interesting to see the divergence between the two given that they work off the same data (and probably only noticed by the likes of myself who is a bit of a weather enthusiast and has been checked the two frequently over the last 48 hours)!

Are you looking at a location forecast on a website or on a TV broadcast? It is all automated data, me and Sean (and Alex Hill) can edit the data on our telly maps. We have to watch close sites such as Aberdeen /Aberdeen airport etc if you edit one, the other may appear on an outlook and still be raw data. For high profile events such as Wimbledon or Glastonbury, the data would be edited by MO, due to high number of enquiries for that specific site. Otherwise, not sure why there should be much difference. Impression, of course, maybe influenced just slightly from the presenter and their enthusiasm for snow.  We can alter the clock to show just 'Thursday', rather than each hour. That can compensate for timing issues, if we know a front will be faster. Or tweak the colour scales to enhance a cold/hot message. It's all smoke and mirrors.

[NorthernRab]

10 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Are you looking at a location forecast on a website or on a TV broadcast? It is all automated data, me and Sean (and Alex Hill) can edit the data on our telly maps. We have to watch close sites such as Aberdeen /Aberdeen airport etc if you edit one, the other may appear on an outlook and still be raw data. For high profile events such as Wimbledon or Glastonbury, the data would be edited by MO, due to high number of enquiries for that specific site. Otherwise, not sure why there should be much difference. Impression, of course, maybe influenced just slightly from the presenter and their enthusiasm for snow.  We can alter the clock to show just 'Thursday', rather than each hour. That can compensate for timing issues, if we know a front will be faster. Or tweak the colour scales to enhance a cold/hot message. It's all smoke and mirrors.

Was referring to location forecast on the websites. Seems to be slight divergence between the two for Inverness - might be due to the two forecasts use a different precise geographic spot for 'Inverness' for the forecast? Quite a lot of difference within the city between say Clachnaharry and Balvonie or Leachkin in terms of altitude, distance from sea etc.

Thanks for sharing all that though, always interested to hear more about the nature of the beast that is professional meteorology / public forecasting!  

[Northern Strath]

@NorthernRab don't know if you use it already but there is a met office local forecast for Bogbain, which, given its altitude and proximity to you, will be a lot more accurate for Leys than any Inverness forecast  

[Ruzzi]

Appears that there'll be plenty opportunity for surprises to pop up at short notice too with an area of heavy snow being forecast on the latest GFS 12Z for the central belt down towards Haddington etc. for overnight into Sunday 

[Soaring Hawk]

Hoping my Scottish friends stay safe and don't experience any damage tomorrow, although if 90mph gusts do hit...  If you're all still standing enjoy the snow over the next few days; you'll deserve it after tomorrow.  Photos please so I can vicariously relive the winters when I lived in Scotland  (models aren't being kind to my snow shielded boring bit of Englandshire). 

I'll be thinking of you, although bitterly regretting the name of this storm.  This rubbish has been going around my head since I heard its name.  Am trying to purge myself by passing it on - share the suffering and all that...  (promise I'll never do this again!)

Damn Caroline

Where it began, I can't begin to knowing
But GFS knew it's growing strong
Was in Model Mania
FI becoming real
Who'd have believed you'd come along!

Hands, touching hands
Reaching out, anchoring me, anchoring you

Damn Caroline
Bad times never seemed so bad
GFS was inclined
To believe they never would
For the Scots

Look at the night and it don't seem so lonely
Its filled with flying trampolines
And when I hurt
How to explain that concept
How? when blown to Norway

One, touching God
Flying sheds, flying mee, flying youuu

Damn Caroline
Good times never seemed so bad
Model ranters inclined
To believe they never would
As not IMBY

Damn Caroline
Bad times never seemed so baw
Damn Caroline
Southern Softies wished it could

Oh Caroline

[mistyqueen]

And the first casualty of Caroline ( and she's no even here yet! ) .......... telly signal gone, not that it's such a bad thing!