Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

[Ravelin]

From what I can see, for me at least, the coming cold spell is going to feel baltic due to strong winds, at least initially. I'm not seeing much in the way of snow on the forecasts, not yet anyway, and I usually take the GFS rain/snowfall charts with a pinch of salt large enough to melt a 2010 sized snow drift. 

I wait and hope to be proven wrong. 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Ravelin said:

From what I can see, for me at least, the coming cold spell is going to feel baltic due to strong winds, at least initially. I'm not seeing much in the way of snow on the forecasts, not yet anyway, and I usually take the GFS rain/snowfall charts with a pinch of salt large enough to melt a 2010 sized snow drift. 

I wait and hope to be proven wrong. 

Expect warnings soon for both wind and snow, the upper air temps will be very cold -11C 850hPa temps GFS has for Northern Scotland on Friday, which looks like it’s going to get hammered by the white stuff. Scotland will do well as a whole no doubt about that. Interior Scotland may not reach above -5C this weekend. 

[101_North]

Latest run shows no real snow chances for me for this weekend at least! This image pretty much sums it up. Usual 'wishboning' effect as I suspected. Dry and cold unless some unexpected feature pops up.

Catch might 'catch' something though

 

 

Edited December 5, 2017 by 101_North

[Northern Strath]

BBC weather this morning looked fairly underwhelming, might excite a bit more nearer Friday, just looked like what December weather should look like.. which is welcome given the last few  

[mistyqueen]

Well, looks like we may get a wee dusting of the white stuff at the weekend after all. The wind on Thursday could be a bigger concern as various forecasts have offered gusts of anything between 45mph and 73mph. Hmmmm. It'll be blawy either way and cauld along wi' it, so the thermals will be looked out in anticipation. Beer and wine stock checked, all good, freezer now stuffed full. Coal being delivered hopefully Thursday if weather allows and plenty of wood chopped. Thunderbirds are go!

 

Edited December 5, 2017 by mistyqueen

[aggy]

It’s not just Thursday/ Friday potential don’t be too disshearted the cold by the looks of it wil last way into next week . Plenty of potential for the whole country unless your me and live by the Ayrshire sea ???

[Daniel*]

15 minutes ago, mistyqueen said:

Well, looks like we may get a wee dusting of the white stuff at the weekend after all. The wind on Thursday could be a bigger concern as various forecasts have offered gusts of anything between 45mph and 73mph. Hmmmm. It'll be blawy either way and cauld along wi' it, so the thermals will be looked out in anticipation. Beer and wine stock checked, all good, freezer now stuffed full. Coal being delivered hopefully Thursday if weather allows and plenty of wood chopped. Thunderbirds are go!

 

Potential for much higher wind speeds than that. Gusting to over 100mph on the ICON I can’t say much about this model however let’s hope it is not near the mark, as there would be severe impacts. 

 

[mistyqueen]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Potential for much higher wind speeds than that. Gusting to over 100mph on the ICON I can’t say much about this model however let’s hope it is not near the mark, as there would be severe impacts. 

 

Aye well, if that comes off I could have a lot to worry about! We shall see and hope it downgrades.

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, mistyqueen said:

Aye well, if that comes off I could have a lot to worry about! We shall see and hope it downgrades.

I’m afraid to say ICON is not alone the ECM is very nasty indeed. Be prepared folks! 

 

[Northern Strath]

1 hour ago, Northern Strath said:

BBC weather this morning looked fairly underwhelming, might excite a bit more nearer Friday, just looked like what December weather should look like.. which is welcome given the last few  

Reads Daniel's posts .... Mutters about the bbc's dire news and weather output 

[mistyqueen]

12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m afraid to say ICON is not alone the ECM is very nasty indeed. Be prepared folks! 

 

Bad, very bad! 

[Hairy Celt]

4 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

By road it isn't...that's what I meant all along, I really did?

You've got to give at least one point for trying to cover up a dumb mistake

 

Altnaharra should get buried, along with most of Caithness, Sutherland, Wester Ross... And anywhere in the Highlands away from the sea and with even a wee bit of elevation   

[Hairy Celt]

GFS currently showing gusts to 70mph on Thursday afternoon on the north-west coast, which is at odds with what that tweeeeeeeeeeeet from the MO shows (poss 100mph). You'd think they'd get their acts together for something like this?

Arpege appears to agree with ECMWF... so best be ready I guess, @mistyqueen

Edited December 5, 2017 by Hairy Celt

[101_North]

Just for Fun but GFS has most of Central and Southern Scotland getting pasted on Sunday 

       

Shame it's too far out and will change on the next run 

[NorthernRab]

Met and BBC being very vague re snow on Thursday night / Friday.

This from the chief forecaster though:

Snow showers will turn increasingly frequent and heavy across northern Scotland during the evening

Which sounds a wee bit more significant than what's currently being shown on the website?

 

Probably a case of nowcasting, as ever!

Edited December 5, 2017 by NorthernRab

[Northern Strath]

Highland weather's take on things

 

 

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, Northern Strath said:

Highland weather's take on things

 

 

That is an accurate assessment I’m unsure why MetO always tone everything down perhaps because it’s the easy/safe option, they must fear public scrutiny a great deal.

[101_North]

First Met warnings out for Northern and Western Scotland. 

[NorthernRab]

Met office warning for Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire, Moray, Angus, Falkirk, Perth and Kinross, Stirling, Argyll and Bute, East Ayrshire, East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Glasgow, Inverclyde, North Ayrshire, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, South Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire, West Dunbartonshire, Dumfries and Galloway, Na h-Eileanan Siar and Highland, 

Snow showers are expected to become increasingly frequent over northern Scotland late on Thursday and are expected across many other parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and western England on Friday. 2-5 cm of snow is likely for some, with 10-20 cm possible over high ground, mainly Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales

[Jo Farrow]

Will be windy on Weds night, but have to wait for cold front to clear southwards and then the curl around the low bringing the stormy conditions with #StormCaroline . Thurs pm for Caithness, Northern Isles and Grampian, esp Evening rush hour, could be nasty (A96 + Aberdeen)

[mistyqueen]

3 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

GFS currently showing gusts to 70mph on Thursday afternoon on the north-west coast, which is at odds with what that tweeeeeeeeeeeet from the MO shows (poss 100mph). You'd think they'd get their acts together for something like this?

Arpege appears to agree with ECMWF... so best be ready I guess, @mistyqueen

Oh I am HC, I am! Plenty of wood chopped and enough coal to last into next week, loads of batteries, oil lamps to be filled and trimmed, check level of gas canister for cooking. Yeah, I think we can batten everything down and just sit it out!

[mardatha]

We have a really odd orange light outside here, started yellow then went to orange. Looks like what you get before heavy snow but it can't be snow here.... can it?? Catch have you got this?

[101_North]

24 minutes ago, mardatha said:

We have a really odd orange light outside here, started yellow then went to orange. Looks like what you get before heavy snow but it can't be snow here.... can it?? Catch have you got this?

Got the same thing here!

[Hairy Celt]

25 minutes ago, mardatha said:

We have a really odd orange light outside here, started yellow then went to orange. Looks like what you get before heavy snow but it can't be snow here.... can it?? Catch have you got this?

No snow yet I hope, it's 11C still

[mardatha]

It was really overcast and the hillside was yellow. Then turned to orange, def odd. Like looking through a Quality Street wrapper lol