Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

[Stormeh]

31 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

Evening all,

Nice to see more posts with a wintry event on the horizon! 

If I was picking my location I’d be going for somewhere like Tyndrum or south of Glasgow, even the higher-up suburbs like Newton Mearns down into (inland) Ayrshire. Lanark, theres another good spot, I would think. Ruzzi should do very well. I’m focusing on areas around Glasgow because that’s what I’m familiar with having grown up there and having lived through the joy of 1984! 

One weird thing about GFS is how consistent it is showing the cold and how static 850s will be, basically showing -6c to -8c 850s from Tuesday through Friday (for Leuchars) with 520 dam or less throughout. I don’t think it will turn out like that. For low-lying and coastal areas I’d imagine there will be quick changes from snow to wintry mixes and opportunities for accumulation will come and go. If you are at 150m or above and do well in this kind of set up....yer laughin!

As for me, I never expect anything and this is no different but the way this year has played out if @edo gets some and I don’t I’ll be gutted.  Now I’m in Broughty Ferry im trying to imagine a scenario where I hear there is snow in Crail and I get none! 

I like what your saying, I am in Barrhead just 2 mins from Newton Mearns  

I hope we all see the white stuff next week!

[ghoneym]

38 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

Evening all,

Nice to see more posts with a wintry event on the horizon! 

If I was picking my location I’d be going for somewhere like Tyndrum or south of Glasgow, even the higher-up suburbs like Newton Mearns down into (inland) Ayrshire. Lanark, theres another good spot, I would think. Ruzzi should do very well. I’m focusing on areas around Glasgow because that’s what I’m familiar with having grown up there and having lived through the joy of 1984! 

One weird thing about GFS is how consistent it is showing the cold and how static 850s will be, basically showing -6c to -8c 850s from Tuesday through Friday (for Leuchars) with 520 dam or less throughout. I don’t think it will turn out like that. For low-lying and coastal areas I’d imagine there will be quick changes from snow to wintry mixes and opportunities for accumulation will come and go. If you are at 150m or above and do well in this kind of set up....yer laughin!

As for me, I never expect anything and this is no different but the way this year has played out if @edo gets some and I don’t I’ll be gutted.  Now I’m in Broughty Ferry im trying to imagine a scenario where I hear there is snow in Crail and I get none! 

I'm down in leven right on the banks of the forth pretty much and looking at this from the met i recon we are in for snow flakes mate, marginal and probs won't settle but keeping the fingers crossed ?

[Ross B]

16 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

I like what your saying, I am in Barrhead just 2 mins from Newton Mearns  

I hope we all see the white stuff next week!

Looks like more of a westerly wind than December's event so we should do OK for precipitation this time. I'm praying I don't miss 2 days of thundersnow again... I moved out of livingston to the west coast about a week before December 2010!  (not that I'm comparing the 2...) 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Ross B

[biggreyface]

The trossachs is the place to be next week. especially right in the middle of loch lomand and the trossachs national park .

There's got to be some upside to 4 months of warm drizzle and midges in the summer

[Northernlights]

Turned into a grey cold day after a bright start at -2c.Huge flocks of geese and pigeons in the fields looking for food and the wintering sheep who are now just fat butterballs were dancing round the fields  today so animal models say snow is coming. Currently 2.5c.

[cscrim]

7 hours ago, edo said:

cherry picked chart...... i am actually even  starting to think i may get a few showers blowing this far over in the strength of the wind and the angle of attack should stop the hills gobbling it up.... have to break the 4 year duck sometime in the wait for enough snow to sledge on. 

cheers Edo, that's us done for now.

[Ruzzi]

Well after the escapade up the Bealach Na Ba pass last week, the ST is going tomorrow for good. Maybe a rash decision but I've seen enough from it, new car day tomorrow! And looks like it'll get its first decent test this coming week ?

Edited January 12, 2018 by Ruzzi

[aggy]

Could the south Ayrshire coast break it’s snow shield . Obviously I can’t help get a little excited but always on the side of caution until it happens 

[GraemeB]

Can't really get excited yet - BBC going for rain and muck for Monday and Tuesday while MetO going with Yellow warning for Snow.

 

[biggreyface]

12 minutes ago, GraemeB said:

Can't really get excited yet - BBC going for rain and muck for Monday and Tuesday while MetO going with Yellow warning for Snow.

 

Last night the beeb were  showing  7c for my location on Monday   today it's 5c  i think 3c will be closer on the day 

As they say in the mod thread  the trend is our friend 

[Hawesy]

1 hour ago, aggy said:

Could the south Ayrshire coast break it’s snow shield . Obviously I can’t help get a little excited but always on the side of caution until it happens 

I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed for you. Us snowless types must stick together! 

Colder weather forecast to arrive second half of the day Monday so I wouldn’t worry about BBC forecast temperatures...the day will start off reasonably mild. I wouldn’t expect to see snow at lower levels until Monday night/Tuesday (according to the latest GFS).

[Ruzzi]

6 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

It'll be interesting to see what the 06z GFS spits out but the 00z ECM and GFS develop a wee low pressure for Weds-Thurs which would bring a lot of snow on its northern flank:

Severe gales for England and Wales, loads of snow for southern Scotland. The 00z UKMO doesn't develop this storm as much so who knows what'll happen?

Was just looking at that in a bit more detail there, hard one to pin down for sure. 

Surprising that the ECM and GFS have it tracking more northwards oppose to the UKMO. It certainly holds potential, but I don't think we'll have a good idea of where it's likely to track until about Monday evening / Tuesday morning. wouldn't be surprised if it hardly develops though and heads through the channel. 

Tbh, I think if it tracks with its northern flank through the central belt, I'll be calling for the diggers to be sent in as The MetO has me currently in snow from around 6pm on Monday night right through til about 3am on Wednesday morning... if that feature tracked as shown and piled in more snow Wednesday - Thursday then I don't want to imagine what the snow depths and drifts would be like in these parts. 

Anyway, I'll be here reporting on Tuesday afternoon about marginality and a non-event and saying the old 'imagine if all that rain had been snow' carry on ?

[howham]

Spot the dry bit. 

Edited January 13, 2018 by howham
Typo

[blitzen]

Showing my ignorance here but does anyone know what this chart is referring to?   from the ICON model apparently.     Is it wind?  (looks like forest fire)

[Hairy Celt]

27 minutes ago, howham said:

Spot the dry bit. 

Spot the other dry bit

[Hairy Celt]

12 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

Showing my ignorance here but does anyone know what this chart is referring to?   from the ICON model apparently.     Is it wind?  (looks like forest fire)

Ground level gusts Seems a bit pointless without direction arrows or bars or something.

Edited January 13, 2018 by Hairy Celt

[blitzen]

7 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Spot the other dry bit

Gentlemen please!    Stop talking about your bits!  (dry or otherwise!)

Edited January 13, 2018 by Blitzen

[Hairy Celt]

1 minute ago, Blitzen said:

Gentlemen please!    Stop talking about your bits!

Haven't started yet

[Starsail]

A very interesting week ahead. It seems strange to me that when we get PM sourced air from the North West in the middle of January in Scotland, that altitude still has to play a factor. Yet it does seem to still be a factor for Tuesday. 850 HPa temps at -7 or below, dry bulb/ wet bulb temps, dew-points etc all on the cold side of favourable (based on my very limited knowledge of the subject) and yet for low lying areas of the central belt sleet is still showing on Met Office/ BBC graphics for Tuesday.

I live in Lanark at approximately 190 m asl so should see snow falling. I work in Motherwell however and I am not so confident that I will see snow down there. If this set up does not bring snow to these areas you have to wonder what will. Time for change however so hopefully the situation will become less marginal as T0 arrives. My guess at this moment is that anyone above 100m will see snow. Let's hope that I am being pessimistic and that we all get some of the white stuff.

 

 

 

 

[Northernlights]

14 hours ago, Northernlights said:

Turned into a grey cold day after a bright start at -2c.Huge flocks of geese and pigeons in the fields looking for food and the wintering sheep who are now just fat butterballs were dancing round the fields  today so animal models say snow is coming. Currently 2.5c.

Just seen a covey of about 30 Grey Partridge . Can"t remember seeing more than 3 or 4 in a  covey at the end of the summer due to the damp breeding season so several must have joined up, another indicator for stormy weather?!  Currently calm dull and 4.5c

[biggreyface]

15 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

Showing my ignorance here but does anyone know what this chart is referring to?   from the ICON model apparently.     Is it wind?  (looks like forest fire)

I'm sure it's to do with the potential for having a hissy fit when your area is under an Amber warning for snaw and it all slides south .I remember seeing a similar chart in early December

[Ruzzi]

2 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The 06z GFS takes it across almost identically to the 00z:

Somewhere is getting buried according to the GFS!

Yep it's got potential to be pretty nasty by the looks of it at the moment, I will be amazed if it stays on that course between now and Thursday though. 

[Ruzzi]

33 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

UKMO doesn't develop the storm as much...so it might not even happen let alone stay on course. You and I probably want it to come west-east on almost the same track as I doubt I am much further south than you.

Edit: A quick look at Google Maps would put me about 5-10 miles south but obviously a long way east. The current GFS track is slightly too far south but I'd still take it

 

Aye it's a fine balance, be interesting to keep an eye on, plenty of weather to come before that right enough.

A smidge further north would do us perfectly but if it comes too far then that mild sector will start reverting the precipitation back towards the sleety variety. Will be such fine margins but something else to keep watching over the next few days. 

[JamesM]

A cold, wet, raw and thoroughly miserable day here. Both wetter and colder than forecast. 

As for next week, it will depend on how large the Kilmarnock snow shield is. I am 8 miles north and at 130 metres, so hopefully I will be out with it! My commute takes me to over 200 metres at the highest point so I should see some white stuff somewhere, even if not at home.

Seems much uncertainty re the possible storm later in the week. Looking very severe on some charts but non-existent on others. Always seems to be south of us however which keeps us cold. 

[Hairy Celt]

2 minutes ago, JamesM said:

A cold, wet, raw and thoroughly miserable day here. Both wetter and colder than forecast. 

As for next week, it will depend on how large the Kilmarnock snow shield is. I am 8 miles north and at 130 metres, so hopefully I will be out with it! My commute takes me to over 200 metres at the highest point so I should see some white stuff somewhere, even if not at home.

Seems much uncertainty re the possible storm later in the week. Looking very severe on some charts but non-existent on others. Always seems to be south of us however which keeps us cold. 

You'll be pleased to know that I'm borrowing the Kilmarnock snowshield next week for important duties in Caithness, so you should get pasted.  I'm going to try to leave it in Caithness when I come home but you know how difficult it is to give these things the slip.