Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

[grifter]

MO weather matrix went from high likely to 2nd bottom unlikely but up one for impact. They also inserted a line "some places will see very little" What's going on? 

Edited January 15, 2018 by grifter

[Polar Gael]

2 hours ago, Hawesy said:

Right just for fun here are some personalised snowfall predictions - these are for accumulation by the end of Wednesday and do NOT include Wed night/Thursday's potential storm. 

@aggy 5cm 

@More Snow 1cm (sorry mate - can't see the showers getting that far east!)

@edo 5cm

@Stormeh 12cm

@Ravelin Trace (too far east! )

@Blitzen 8cm

@Norrance 5cm

@Ruzzi 17cm

@snowidea 8cm

@101_North Zilch  (Just kidding....7cm)

@CatchMyDrift 6cm

@Hairy Celt 4cm

@scottish skier 8cm

@GraemeB 10cm

@moffatross 15cm

@snowy owl 3cm

@mardatha 15cm

@mistyqueen 7cm

@grifter 9cm

@Northernlights 6cm

@Northern Strath 5cm

@NorthernRab 7cm

@Benvironment 10cm

@Polar Gael 12cm

and er,

@Hawesy 1cm 

Apologies if I've missed you out.....though it's probably a blessing! 

Love this - cheers, mate.

*Bank!*

Snaw not here yet. Intermittent showers, snawline creeping down the hills and 4.2C currently. 

I sense a whumphing could be on the cards this week. 

[Penicuikblizzard]

Looking at the radar forecast the showers look few and far between for the Central Belt 

[101_North]

Can't remember the last time I saw a Euro4 chart as good as this for my location! Quite obvious now that this is going to end in tears 

[101_North]

2 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Looking at the radar forecast the showers look few and far between for the Central Belt 

I wouldn't worry just yet - can't see how anything could accurately predict shower activity this far in advance! I think that plenty of showers should make it over this far - especially tomorrow and you're in a great position if they do 

[JamesM]

7 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Can't remember the last time I saw a Euro4 chart as good as this for my location! Quite obvious now that this is going to end in tears 

Must be completely wrong. Kilmarnock is in the pink bit.

[BlizzardConditions]

26 minutes ago, grifter said:

MO weather matrix went from high likely to 2nd bottom unlikely but up one for impact. They also inserted a line "some places will see very little" What's going on? 

I think that sentence refers to the warning in place for parts of England and Wales, not Scotland 

[Ruzzi]

44 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Be interesting to see where the low ends up. Each run will correct it's position and it if keeps trending south (as it has on the last run I checked) then come Wednesday that warning area could be sitting over the South of England - although let's hope not

Fascinating model watching over the next few days - coupled with fascinating radar and lamp post watching - not often that happens in tandem 

Aye, when it was first modelled I was placing it down the south of England but it's being stubborn thankfully. I'd be surprised if it makes a massive correction between now and then, maybe a couple of hundreds miles at most but the central belt has some margin for error as long as it's correcting slightly south, if it comes much further North then it'll be a wash out for the central belt and narnia in the highlands 

[edo]

cheers @Hawesy always a sign someone is defo gonna hit when your predictor comes out

 

I will take it

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Snow has started here and its 1.8C VID_20180115_133628.mp4

[aggy]

I honestly think for here the ground is too saturated for any snaw to stick ideally would need a miracle or a huge hail shower first then snow

[Benvironment]

4 hours ago, Hawesy said:

Right just for fun here are some personalised snowfall predictions - these are for accumulation by the end of Wednesday and do NOT include Wed night/Thursday's potential storm. 

 

@Benvironment 10cm

and er,

@Hawesy 1cm 

Apologies if I've missed you out.....though it's probably a blessing! 

I'd be happy with 5cm.....but I certainly won't complain about 10cm  Cheers!

Sleeting here and 3.4C.

[101_North]

13 minutes ago, aggy said:

I honestly think for here the ground is too saturated for any snaw to stick ideally would need a miracle or a huge hail shower first then snow

The dew points look great for later this evening / tonight so I think snow should settle fine. 

[Guest]

Well after last nights fun and games I think I might just keep me head down for a bit... I blame the Buckfast. 

[Mr Frost]

Now this is exciting - Thundersnow in with a shout tonight and tomorow looks fantastic. 

This could be (for once) very special in the Central belt. 

 

[Seraphim]

Hi all,

i will be glued to the window for a wee bit lamppost watching come sundown. Clouds are fairly skittering across the sky now ? 

Trying to be all casual about it to the kids in case we end up with hee-haw, but I'm a bit giddy! 

[moffatross]

4 hours ago, Hawesy said:

Right just for fun here are some personalised snowfall predictions - these are for accumulation by the end of Wednesday and do NOT include Wed night/Thursday's potential storm. 

@aggy 5cm 

@More Snow 1cm (sorry mate - can't see the showers getting that far east!)

@edo 5cm

@Stormeh 12cm

@Ravelin Trace (too far east! )

@Blitzen 8cm

@Norrance 5cm

@Ruzzi 17cm

@snowidea 8cm

@101_North Zilch  (Just kidding....7cm)

@CatchMyDrift 6cm

@Hairy Celt 4cm

@scottish skier 8cm

@GraemeB 10cm

@moffatross 15cm

@snowy owl 3cm

@mardatha 15cm

@mistyqueen 7cm

@grifter 9cm

@Northernlights 6cm

@Northern Strath 5cm

@NorthernRab 7cm

@Benvironment 10cm

@Polar Gael 12cm

and er,

@Hawesy 1cm 

Apologies if I've missed you out.....though it's probably a blessing! 

Thanks for that and fingers crossed 

In corroboration, here're some of the weather model take on snow depths by Wednesday night ...

WRF. This one's especially noteworthy as it's a major contributor to the Met Office's unified model ...

ECM. Inputs to Met Office's unified model too and the attached is its ensemble average from last night's run ...

GFS. It's usually bonkers but is loosely in agreement with the others just now ..

[Ross90]

3 degrees and patchy cloud here at the moment.Heavy snow or snow showers forecast for almost every hour between tonight and wed morning. 

[Kayemill]

15 minutes ago, moffatross said:

Thanks for that and fingers crossed 

In corroboration, here're some of the weather model take on snow depths by Wednesday night ...

WRF. This one's especially noteworthy as it's a major contributor to the Met Office's unified model ...

ECM. Inputs to Met Office's unified model too and the attached is its ensemble average from last night's run ...

GFS. It's usually bonkers but is loosely in agreement with the others just now ..

I'm due a foot according to that last one. We'll see.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Kayemill

[101_North]

6 minutes ago, Kayemill said:

I'm due a foot according to that last one. We'll see.

and I'm due the square root of absolutely nothing based on the first one. We'll see indeed 

[mistyqueen]

4 hours ago, Hawesy said:

Right just for fun here are some personalised snowfall predictions - these are for accumulation by the end of Wednesday and do NOT include Wed night/Thursday's potential storm. 

@aggy 5cm 

@More Snow 1cm (sorry mate - can't see the showers getting that far east!)

@edo 5cm

@Stormeh 12cm

@Ravelin Trace (too far east! )

@Blitzen 8cm

@Norrance 5cm

@Ruzzi 17cm

@snowidea 8cm

@101_North Zilch  (Just kidding....7cm)

@CatchMyDrift 6cm

@Hairy Celt 4cm

@scottish skier 8cm

@GraemeB 10cm

@moffatross 15cm

@snowy owl 3cm

@mardatha 15cm

@mistyqueen 7cm

@grifter 9cm

@Northernlights 6cm

@Northern Strath 5cm

@NorthernRab 7cm

@Benvironment 10cm

@Polar Gael 12cm

and er,

@Hawesy 1cm 

Apologies if I've missed you out.....though it's probably a blessing! 

Oooooh! 7cm! That'll do nicely! Currently 1.9c, Baltic, clear blue skies and a stiff breeze. Drove through some sleet and graupel just after 11.30 this morning, since then, nothing! A huge black cloud just passed over us and dumped Hee Haw! So, we'll see how it goes up here and if we get any white stuff I'll post piccies ramorra!

[Ruzzi]

I like the look of those long bands starting to appear on the radar, hopefully they'll beef up later when the colder uppers are aloft and maybe merge. Nice long strands at the moment 

[101_North]

GFS 12z rolling out and the Wed/Thurs low isn't looking anywhere near as potent as the previous runs. Still trending south too. 

Edited January 15, 2018 by 101_North

[Ruzzi]

CURRENTLY SNOWING!! not lying yet ofcourse 

[Stormeh]

1 minute ago, 101_North said:

GFS 12z rolling out and the Wed/Thurs low isn't looking anywhere near as potent as the previous runs. 

Yes and it’s further south yet again, I don’t think we will know exactly where it will end up until tomorrow night as the low is only just developing.