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Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night

Still really mixed signals - BBC/MetO not really going for anything more than "some snow" whilst GFS going full blown snowmageddon.

:confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
10 hours ago, edo said:

indeed CMD.... even @101_North

 

From past experience I'm expecting initial rain showers, then the snow showers will largely avoid me, the low will eventually track too far north or south and then right at the tail end of the cold snap I'll be granted a dusting :D

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
37 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

Anyone know what the forecast for Scotland is for next week then?    They are all too busy greetin' in their cornflakes over what appears to be the crash and burn of their snow spell in all of the overnight models?

I can only find one reference to us amongst the tears and that still seems to be on track?:search:

It's a full on cult-esque mass suicide in the MOD thread this morning. Still looking like the Thursday potential storm is staying on a more northern track, for the moment. Means more of a chance for snow for us lot, but wet and windy for those south of the border, hence the toys being sent flying. 

Edited by Ravelin
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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

Personally think they did a few tweeks to the overnight GFS model to account for the Siberian cold and cyclonic conditions in the pacific. And so overcooked the second low pressure coming in end of next week. There was no progression to that low.. it just appeared.  I think they maybe inputted a bit more bias for a cyclonic west coast in US.  The jet is flat/straight as a pancake which is unusual this winter. Even the obligatory  SSW had disapoeared from the 300hrs + 

Dont buy into the doom and gloom.. not just yet.. we shall have 5days of snow in the Scotland. 

Winter is here to stay for a while anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

Drizzle here and we seem to have 47mph winds later on today. Oh fabby winter so far aye.:girl_devil:

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
3 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Just as well we've got an independent thread for Scottish winter weather....

Much friendlier too.. I get generally ignored because I cant come up the with verbal meteorlogical runs like some do. 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
7 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I don't post in it in general, skim read it for the ones who know what they're on about and skip a lot of it. It's a shame as there are a hardcore who know a lot but a lot who talk the talk but that's about it.

FAX charts look interesting, plenty going on with troughs and occlusions so it shouldn't be dry:

Screenshot_20180114-090720.thumb.jpg.c810019bda6baab5a9f48ae983c1cf93.jpg

The Euro4 is coming into range for Tuesday soon, should be plenty to start a full scale rampede.

The Fax does look really good for Scotland. Maybe even Thundersnow by Tuesday. Im happy with this. 

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

The model forum....

8BD1E747-7218-44BE-8F81-12A9D163B403.thumb.gif.a6ff4e210825c68f8e70e11136cefeb0.gif

 

Like people are saying, thankfully we have our own regional discussion thread!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
2 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I'm excited for everyone for Tuesday and Wednesday too, and the showers won't even reach here :)

I'm banking on the Weds-Thurs storm to do it for me (plus quite a few others hopefully).

Im sure it will.  Looking very interesting week coming up. 

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

This storm looks nasty, probably a case of wait & see how it evolves ?

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

i think you will see snow falling CMD.... the heaviness and frequency of precipitation coupled with a decent wind by Tuesday should see some flakes make it over but probably no accumulation until the storm. 

Edited by edo
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Posted
  • Location: Scottish Highlands 310m
  • Location: Scottish Highlands 310m
10 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

Pretty like much of the programmes on bbc these days. Does anyone actually watch the crap they broadcast as drama? (Sorry...)

 

Much the same as yourself HC, I watch some of their documentaries, that's about the extent 

As always in these westerly set-ups, for up here, Glen Shiel looking great. Any room at the inn?

 IMG_6467.thumb.PNG.4885a01e9443e56810c2bdee1966a465.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Looking like the western ski resorts, Nevis and Glencoe, will pick up a good dumping of snow this week, if it doesn't all get blown back off. Not sure they'll see many running lifts though. Anyone else who has the freedom to head to either when the weather calms down could be in for a real treat. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Tuesday is looking incredible here - Metoffice keep ramping up the snow more and more every couple of hours.

Heavy snow and a howling wind - proper Mid-Winter Scottish weather! :cold::yahoo:

 

6EAC17D0-F501-4627-A797-BE473FCDE7E6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lochaber
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever is happening but partial to a snow drift
  • Location: Lochaber

I had 7 days straight skiing up Nevis Range from the 1st - the wind has blown it about this week so hoping the gullies are filled now and any new snow settles well so when the wind finally goes we can get back up to play.  Such a different winter than last years mehness!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
5 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Tuesday is looking incredible here - Metoffice keep ramping up the snow more and more every couple of hours.

Heavy snow and a howling wind - proper Mid-Winter Scottish weather! :cold::yahoo:

I work backshift in East Kilbride. I start at 6pm tomorrow and finish at 2am. Looking at the forecast I may struggle to get home to Barrhead :cold:

Edited by Stormeh
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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl

Surely an amber warning for Tuesday is about to appear...  Yellow warning extended to 11am wed. 

Edited by Ross B
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
1 hour ago, 101_North said:

From past experience I'm expecting initial rain showers, then the snow showers will largely avoid me, the low will eventually track too far north or south and then right at the tail end of the cold snap I'll be granted a dusting :D

I’d take that in a heartbeat! :D

As Catch says the Met O mentioning snow accumulating even at sea level is very unusual, that should definitely count as ramping. :D

Very interesting few days coming up, I feel projections for Thursdays storm will change several times yet before we have an idea of its impact.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
6 minutes ago, Ross B said:

Surely am amber warning for Tuesday is about to appear... 

I should bloody think so ?? 

they're now going for 64 hours of continuous snowfall and snow showers  here, starting 5pm Monday night right through til 9am on Thursday Morning ?? I know it'll change again but I don't want it to ? 

IMG_7460.thumb.PNG.4732fe8c1cf4c0766467e7d2b6a71fe1.PNG

IMG_7461.thumb.PNG.ad5171da168fe2f0676c330989ad99d3.PNG

IMG_7462.thumb.PNG.dbb293aa7372920a6de92f372ae24a33.PNG

IMG_7463.thumb.PNG.d09fa8eda83f0ba3183dfcd5cc86da7a.PNG

 

Edited by Ruzzi
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
39 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Probably not from the showers but possibly if the Weds-Thurs storm passes through at the right latitude :)

@edo would probs be the best one to ask.

@CatchMyDrift Just one run of course but 0z GFS has the storm too far north, bringing in +2c temps at 925mb and the wet bulb freezing level to 800m (for Leuchars)....snow restricted to the Highlands if that came off (unless I’m misreading it!).

Plenty of adjustments still to come I’m sure! :) We should probably focus on the shower distribution first of all!

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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
40 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Yes, the last couple of GFS runs have been too far north for the south but good for the north.

Euro4 06z shows a lot of snow by 6am on Tuesday but it seems to have been reading this thread as the Killie snowshield is easy to spot:

Screenshot_20180114-112533.thumb.jpg.a02f4b00bcc894a978af9c7278564e95.jpg

And one of the heaviest bands is over my house which I won't be in. :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbernauld
  • Location: Cumbernauld
41 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Yes, the last couple of GFS runs have been too far north for the south but good for the north.

Euro4 06z shows a lot of snow by 6am on Tuesday but it seems to have been reading this thread as the Killie snowshield is easy to spot:

Screenshot_20180114-112533.thumb.jpg.a02f4b00bcc894a978af9c7278564e95.jpg

Sake ?

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
2 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Probably not from the showers but possibly if the Weds-Thurs storm passes through at the right latitude :)

@edo would probs be the best one to ask.

i cant believe im saying this but i think we may get some snow given the flow is more West North Westerly and this stops the hills stealing it all... the risk is any mild air mixed in and we struggle with the lack of elevation meaning could be marginal.... i dont anticipate enough for a snowman from the showers next few days but a chance if the storm tracks just the right way for us.... and wont know that until a day before probably. 

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