Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

[NorthernRab]

Re next week, I think the models are definitely going to struggle with identifying the snow showers which will hit Scotland with many penetrating well in land and even towards the east. Shorter range models will be key and likely a great deal of nowcasting. Very interesting setup! 

[Ruzzi]

The MetO is never right for here but it's still nice to keep up the momentum lol 

[Mr Frost]

Now we are talking! 

This is going to be fun! 

 

[Ross B]

3 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Now we are talking! 

This is going to be fun! 

 

I'll be in England until Wednesday night (hopefully it'll still be going when I'm back) 

[Northern Strath]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Now we are talking! 

This is going to be fun! 

 

I like that it says "over 10cms", no limit set to possible snowfall totals? 

Also notable that they focus on the lightening element, looks an  interesting bit of weather inbound

[Ross B]

4 minutes ago, Northern Strath said:

I like that it says "over 10cms", no limit set to possible snowfall totals? 

Also notable that they focus on the lightening element, looks an  interesting bit of weather inbound

Any warning that says snow and lightning could end up resulting in a pasting of snow. My worry is whether I'll be able to get back to. Glasgow on Wednesday with a trip over the M74 in the dark... New Nokian weatherproofs  getting fitted on Saturday but I may need a snow plow fitted!  

[NorthernRab]

46 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

Re next week, I think the models are definitely going to struggle with identifying the snow showers which will hit Scotland with many penetrating well in land and even towards the east. Shorter range models will be key and likely a great deal of nowcasting. Very interesting setup! 

Case in point.

 

And that's just day one! 

Edited January 12, 2018 by NorthernRab

[Ruzzi]

You'd have to think that an amber warning will be issued for somewhere considering the projected conditions that merit an amber warning down south. Too early for that yet but if it continues as projected then surely it's an amber shout for at least higher areas of the western central belt? 

Having said that, 5 inches fell here on Boxing Day and there was no amber warning so god knows 

[Stormeh]

I like the fact they mention frequent lightning strikes!

BRING ON THE THUNDERSNAW!

[Ross B]

19 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

You'd have to think that an amber warning will be issued for somewhere considering the projected conditions that merit an amber warning down south. Too early for that yet but if it continues as projected then surely it's an amber shout for at least higher areas of the western central belt? 

Having said that, 5 inches fell here on Boxing Day and there was no amber warning so god knows 

Too early for an amber yet, I'd expect that on Sundays update if things are still looking good.  Could be higher for busy areas that are likely to grind to a halt during rush hour ... 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Ross B

[NorthernRab]

13 minutes ago, Ross B said:

Too early for an amber yet, I'd expect that on Sundays update if things are still looking good.  Could be higher for busy areas that are likely to grind to a halt during rush hour ... 

Interesting that it's quite high on the 'impact' axis of the met warning system, suggesting the potential for something quite notable! 

[David H]

Yeah bring on the Thundersnow, Thundersleet, Thunder and rain, rain,  horizontal dreich lol. Dont you just love being beside the seaside 

[Rickoza]

Not getting my hopes up but it looks good.  Over the years here in Bellshill/Motherwell area snow, and indeed thunderstorms, just seem to head towards us then either go North or South and avoid us altogether, best we seem to get is a light covering which fades fairly quickly.  Long range looks to continue the theme of next week, so perhaps, after all this time (2010 the last really good fall of snow here I recall), we might get an impressive dumping.  And a thunderstorm to go along with it. I've seen Thundersnow once in person, and I was only about 10 at the time, in this part of the world.  Long overdue.

[blitzen]

Well for me it was and is another ditto D day.............D, D,D, D + D =  dull.dry, dark, dreich and damp!  Lowest overnight was 3.9c and currently 6.7c.

Could really do with a change to cold and snowy but scared to even consider the possibility. 

Look into the MOD thread for a read and a laugh each day as I sure as hell can't get a forecast!   My God! they must be dizzy in there as they have it coming from every direction with snow up to their imaginary armpits!

Ah well......all we can do is wait and see I suppose.   Does reverse psychology work do you think?  Might give it a try and expect nothing and then get the proverbial dumping!   (DON'T even mention the snow blower HC!)...Wonder if it still works?

Edited January 12, 2018 by Blitzen

[Hairy Celt]

Similar temps here today. I wasted some time this morning trying to rearrange work so I go west next week instead of north-east. No deal. B'stards.

I'd forgotten all about the fabled s*** b*****!

there I go

[Spindrift2017]

2 hours ago, NorthernRab said:

Interesting that it's quite high on the 'impact' axis of the met warning system, suggesting the potential for something quite notable! 

I notice that it’s on the bottom rung of the likelihood matrix though (‘unlikely’).  In which case why bother with the warning at this stage?! I suspect they are being a bit non-commital due to possible marginality, with the air travelling a fair distance over the sea.  Will be interesting to see how this one evolves.

[Benvironment]

5.4c here in what has been a very calm and subdued week of weather. There is still some ice clinging on in the fields and I think West Lomond still has some snow. Lovely cool start to the year. Such a difference from last winter ?

Like Blitzen, I’m assuming snizzly dandruff at best ?

[snowidea]

Found some snow in Glencoe.

Awesome fun chairlift and sledging, £25 for a family chairlift ticket and sledging free. 

Hired some huge salopettes as I was the only family member without cozy trousers. They were big enough for me and another and as I'm a short weeble had to turn them up about 10 times but it was worth looking like a twit for the warmth. 

[edo]

cherry picked chart...... i am actually even  starting to think i may get a few showers blowing this far over in the strength of the wind and the angle of attack should stop the hills gobbling it up.... have to break the 4 year duck sometime in the wait for enough snow to sledge on. 

[mistyqueen]

Yesterday temps didn't get above freezing, then when I put the chooks to bed we were basking in the sub tropics of 4.3c! Phew! Whit a roaster! Today we are currently at 8.3c and rather gusty too. As for next week, I've looked at so many forecasts and they all tell me something different! One says SNAW, one says SLEET and yet another says HEE HAW! So, if I opt for sleet and temps of 2c that should about cover it! Don't think I'll be building too many snowmen next week!

[Hairy Celt]

2 hours ago, mistyqueen said:

Yesterday temps didn't get above freezing, then when I put the chooks to bed we were basking in the sub tropics of 4.3c! Phew! Whit a roaster! Today we are currently at 8.3c and rather gusty too. As for next week, I've looked at so many forecasts and they all tell me something different! One says SNAW, one says SLEET and yet another says HEE HAW! So, if I opt for sleet and temps of 2c that should about cover it! Don't think I'll be building too many snowmen next week!

No, nor me, I think us coasties will be snow-free for the fun-time. Find the nearest proper hill and get yer boots on.

[Hairy Celt]

2 hours ago, edo said:

cherry picked chart...... i am actually even  starting to think i may get a few showers blowing this far over in the strength of the wind and the angle of attack should stop the hills gobbling it up.... have to break the 4 year duck sometime in the wait for enough snow to sledge on. 

Gosh, you get 4G! That's 2 more than me unless I lean out the attic window!

[snowidea]

3 hours ago, snowidea said:

 

They were big enough for me and another and as I'm a short weeble. 

 

I would just like to publicly declare I didn't use the word "weeble" and also to make it clear I've never used that word in my life (well apart from when I was little, in the context of weebles wobble but they don't fall down). I typed a**e, assume there's a sweary word filter 

[101_North]

9 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Rain for @101_North, blue skies and sunshine for me

 

Looks about right

[Hawesy]

Evening all,

Nice to see more posts with a wintry event on the horizon! 

If I was picking my location I’d be going for somewhere like Tyndrum or south of Glasgow, even the higher-up suburbs like Newton Mearns down into (inland) Ayrshire. Lanark, theres another good spot, I would think. Ruzzi should do very well. I’m focusing on areas around Glasgow because that’s what I’m familiar with having grown up there and having lived through the joy of 1984! 

One weird thing about GFS is how consistent it is showing the cold and how static 850s will be, basically showing -6c to -8c 850s from Tuesday through Friday (for Leuchars) with 520 dam or less throughout. I don’t think it will turn out like that. For low-lying and coastal areas I’d imagine there will be quick changes from snow to wintry mixes and opportunities for accumulation will come and go. If you are at 150m or above and do well in this kind of set up....yer laughin!

As for me, I never expect anything and this is no different but the way this year has played out if @edo gets some and I don’t I’ll be gutted.  Now I’m in Broughty Ferry im trying to imagine a scenario where I hear there is snow in Crail and I get none!