Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

[blitzen]

14 hours ago, Hawesy said:

Yes will definitely be watching that. Before my time but I remember my Dad talking about it as he lived in Mount Florida in Glasgow at the time and that was one of the worst affected areas. I don’t think any storms since have come close to being as destructive for Glasgow.

NOT before my time unfortunately as I was 18 then and remember it well!   I had just passed my driving test  (first time ) but because the roads were so littered with debris, my dad insisted on driving me into work (outside Glenrothes)  When we eventually arrived, we were just turned away as the warehouse doors, which were huge, were buckled beyond recognition and part of the office roof was missing.

At home, our shed at the bottom of the garden landed in next door's garden minus its roof as this must have spun off and hit the  back of our house, slicing the downpipe in two at the side of my bedroom window!

 

Edited January 11, 2018 by Blitzen

[Ruzzi]

I have to say, I'm starting to see potential for next week now, and tbh from a bias point of view, I'm quietly confident of doing quite well out of it, we do have the luxury here of benefitting from easterlies (especially ENE) and westerlies and for the approaching pattern, Monday night, and through Tuesday, we have seen plenty of decent accumulations from this type of set up in the past. 

given our location almost slap bang in the middle away from any coasts and with 200m of elevation, -5c uppers from the west deliver easily here providing there's no other overriding factors. 

The strength of the wind does seem like it may add another element to it aswell with sustained strong WNW winds for quite a duration, most definitely could be plenty of blowing snow around aswell.

just hope it doesn't stick around for too long as the Mrs is a driving instructor and work is off the table when the snow comes ☹️

Edit:

starting to appear in some forecasts now aswell!

 

 

Edited January 11, 2018 by Ruzzi

[Stormeh]

I agree @Ruzzi, I am just to the west of you in Barrhead. I have also done very well from these setups in the past. I will only be confident once I see the white stuff falling from the sky 

This definitely beats the boring weather we have had this week. I hope we can see plenty of heavy snow showers with longer organised bands moving across Scotland so we can all get something. Thundersnow is also a possibility 

[Hairy Celt]

I've come to fort william today, not seen the car thermometer above 1C yet, mostly well below 0C. For inland places, feels like a proper winter since about a week into December, plenty ice at low levels and snow higher up. 

What's the excitement for next week? Do we need to stock up on yet? 

[Northern Strath]

On 10/01/2018 at 12:24, NorthernRab said:

Westerlies / north westerlies normally deliver quite well here so I'm optimistic about next week.

Optimistic too NR, if it favours a more NW approach it'll be even better. Usually very little middle ground for these set ups, either utterly buried or it'll be showers whizzing over us leaving little behind

Wouldn't bother much with those XC-weather forecasts @Ruzzi for the period of snow for Dec 7-10 they had us with 7cms of snow over 3 days, we ended up getting 30cms within half that time, they're as informative as 90% of the model thread?

As HC noted, winter hasn't really gone anywhere since the start of Dec, snow cover hard as stone at the house and even working at sea level Inverness this week it's been a frosty/icy affair with some really cold, solid surfaces for the Atlantic to throw stuff on 

Edited January 11, 2018 by Northern Strath

[Hawesy]

@Blitzen Thanks for that - interesting!

Just a word of caution about next weeks charts. As usual the 850s are a degree or two cooler on the GFS than the ECM. This wouldn’t affect the likes of Ruzzi, NS etc. but for those at low levels and/or near the coast it could be the difference between ‘wintry showers‘ and accumulating snow. In my experience GFS usually overdoes the cold in winter though hopefully this time it will be spot on! 

Either way I’m naturally  not expecting anything over here but hope springs eternal!

[snowidea]

1 hour ago, Hairy Celt said:

I've come to fort william today, not seen the car thermometer above 1C yet, mostly well below 0C. For inland places, feels like a proper winter since about a week into December, plenty ice at low levels and snow higher up. 

What's the excitement for next week? Do we need to stock up on yet? 

We're heading up to Glencoe later today for a cheeky 3 day break. Hoping to take the kids sledging on Glencoe Mountain 

[Ruzzi]

1 hour ago, Northern Strath said:

Optimistic too NR, if it favours a more NW approach it'll be even better. Usually very little middle ground for these set ups, either utterly buried or it'll be showers whizzing over us leaving little behind

Wouldn't bother much with those XC-weather forecasts @Ruzzi for the period of snow for Dec 7-10 they had us with 7cms of snow over 3 days, we ended up getting 30cms within half that time, they're as informative as 90% of the model thread?

As HC noted, winter hasn't really gone anywhere since the start of Dec, snow cover hard as stone at the house and even working at sea level Inverness this week it's been a frosty/icy affair with some really cold, solid surfaces for the Atlantic to throw stuff on 

Aye I agree, I never take any notice of predicted accumulations etc, it was more the forecast for snow to fall I was looking at, along with MetO aswell. If you got more than predicted though then I'll certainly take that lol 

[mistyqueen]

Afternoon campers! Just checking out the charts for next week and it looks like it might well be a tad chilly! Not for one minute do I think we'll get a huge dump of snow here, if we do, I'll eat my last box of Christmas choccy biccies! Been a beautiful day here, but damned cauld, temp never above freezing so a great morning for a walk. Just as well we did, 'cos the weekend looks like keich and the forecasts for next week are not encouraging. Ah well, we'll see!

[Northern Strath]

10 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Aye I agree, I never take any notice of predicted accumulations etc, it was more the forecast for snow to fall I was looking at, along with MetO aswell. If you got more than predicted though then I'll certainly take that lol 

Cool. Haha aye true, they can be the go to for a cautionary/non-rampy forecast

As always, things will firm up in the final few hours but even then, there's usually surprises that pop-up, hopefully for many 

[howham]

Probably going to be cold and dry here.  I'll bide my time for the winds swinging round to the north later in the month.

[Northernlights]

Another fine sunny winters day starting off at 1c with a ground frost and finishing with a frost and 0c. Very calm and with an inversion a lot of smoke from chimnies was hugging the ground. I echo the above  that its felt like winter for a while now and the fact that the bulbs are only just at ground level ,compared to last year they are well behind but probably much nearer to the long term average.  Just sorted the farm road today as it had really broken up with all the wet weather before Christmas so it will be frozen hard tonight.and so smoother to drive on.

[biggreyface]

Looking at the charts for next week it looks like the pattern  is the same as what we had most of the summer and the saying that really became a major pain in the back passage  the dreaded north/west  south/east split oh well it is what it is 

[aggy]

Serious question there’s a thick frost already on the cars etc BUT temps online saying it’s 1oc HOW ???

[Hairy Celt]

I just lost a word game cos I didn't know what 'frot' means . See, I've brought up my children properly

I'll get excited about the weather when it happens.  Unfortunately I'll be in Wick for much of next week. Not a good place to be at the best of times.

[aggy]

46 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

You can get a ground frost even if air temps are above freezing. The air temp is recorded between 1.25m and 2m off the ground but the temperature at ground level can be lower than the temperature higher up off the ground. Heat rises...plus you might be in a frost hollow.

U clever wee cookie ? well I’ll take a frost as I don’t get snaw so at least it’s kinda white 

[Hairy Celt]

7 minutes ago, aggy said:

U clever wee cookie ? well I’ll take a frost as I don’t get snaw so at least it’s kinda white 

Also, if when you say temp online, you mean a forecast temp, it might be wrong. They usually are for me.  Or if you have an outdoor thermometer, that might be wrong too.

[edo]

Some people gonna do rather well next week and I don't think it will be me...... Great 18z ramping it up even more.... The charts below are across 36 hours....someones getting buried 

[Stormeh]

4 minutes ago, edo said:

Some people gonna do rather well next week and I don't think it will be me...... Great 18z ramping it up even more.... The charts below are across 36 hours....someones getting buried 

Yes it’s looking good for my area. I work backshift in East Kilbride so I imagine it will be a fun drive to work next week, if I make it that is!

What I am really hoping for is some thundersnow. I witnessed this a couple of years ago, amazing to see!

I hope there are lots of bands of prolonged heavy snow for everyone! I am starting to feel this could be a memorable week coming up 

[dinger]

Don't post much, but been here since 2005 and can honestly say from a selfish point of view that next week holds more potential for my part of Scotland than any other event in the last 12 years. I am genuinely excited.

northerlies, north easterlies, easterlies  and most other directions provide diddly squat here so i am hoping next week brings back memories of the '80's when snow days were a semi frequent occurrence. 

Its sad that my children want to experience their first snow day before they finish their education when I had so many. Next week might be the week.

 

[NorthernRab]

-7.3'C here this morning, could dip a bit further yet! 

[Northern Strath]

18 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

-7.3'C here this morning, could dip a bit further yet! 

Some great variations this morn, 6 below when I went to bed but currently 0c here. Reading highland weather and Carrbridge at -4c with Aviemore at 5c just 7 miles away 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Northern Strath

[Northern Strath]

40 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

A relatively tropical 4C here.

Scorching ? I think the last time we were over 2 or 3c was Dec 19th. What's your take on how next week looks Catch? 

[NorthernRab]

2 hours ago, Northern Strath said:

Some great variations this morn, 6 below when I went to bed but currently 0c here. Reading highland weather and Carrbridge at -4c with Aviemore at 5c just 7 miles away 

Fairly odd night temperature wise, -6'C early doors, up to -1'C, down to -6'C, up to -2'C and down to -7'C. Currently 0'c. 

Putting on my local meteorologist hat, long drawn week southerly winds often lead to very cold temperatures in the Highlands. Given that a couple days of relatively 'milder' weather is incoming via strengthening southerly winds today, it could just be that the area was just on the cusp between homegrown cold and southern air mass? 

[mardatha]

Dull and bloody horrible here, 3C now. Mad husband oot washing the car!