Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

[NorthernRab]

Quite surprised to see how confident the BBC / Met are on a northerly after Christmas. Looks interesting! 

[mistyqueen]

Good grief! 13.4c! How ridiculous is that? This time last week the temp was just about scraping up to 2c and now we are back to summertime heat waves! Looks like it might get a bit fresh on Boxing day though, that should blow the cobwebs away!

[Big Innes Madori]

1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Looks like a back wheel to the boy bits. Much like weather watching in Scotland.

Or taking wee a dip in the North Sea!

Can cause Inversion and sittin doon tae pee

 

Big Innes

[Hairy Celt]

7 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Looks like a back wheel to the boy bits. Much like weather watching in Scotland.

Bit hard to tell trajectory from a still this small but you could be right. That's not a place I'd want to be

Up to 10C this afternoon. Onward flies the bird. Be glad when we're past the equinox - the kitchen light went back on at midday today, just trying to find my coffee pot.

[Hawesy]

Strangely quiet in here now. 

Air felt ‘soft’ when I came out of work tonight. 10c.

Looks fairly mild up until Christmas, possibly turning colder thereafter. Way too soon to be sure of course. I suppose it allows us to get on with other things in the run up to Christmas! 

[snowy owl]

Rather mild today! But actually not so bad for final parts of Christmas shopping lol , coffee mornings and all things Christmassy . Personally I’d love some snow ❄️ during the hols , you just never know! Charts have possibilities for change eh! Fingers crossed! 

[Ravelin]

Ice holding on despite the warmer conditions today. Only a blow torch will probably shift it. I don't mean a 'blowtorch southwesterly' either, I mean an actual gas blowtorch. 

This time next week I'll be in Mayrhofen,  Austria, and with the best start to the skiing season in years I've not been stressing out about the snow conditions either. 

[Northernlights]

Yes 52.5F in old money here just now with a strong breeze . All the walls sweating in the steading tonight.   As above fine if its good weather to Christmas to allow all the travelling etc.. to go ahead easily but a flake or two would be fine next week.

[Hairy Celt]

18z GFS is a right tease. Defo not time to fire up the orgasmatron again just yet.

Ok, who gets first post on p100?

Edited December 19, 2017 by Hairy Celt

[Hawesy]

A mild night through the central belt: 12 hour minimum through 6am, 10.9c at Prestwick, 10.6c Edinburgh Gogarbank, 10.4c Glasgow Bishopton. http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/amextremes.html

[mistyqueen]

Still mild and murky here, light rain clearing now. I've checked XC weather for the big day and it tells me 4c and white stuff. Met check tells me 9c and heavy rain. So I'll go somewhere in the middle at 7c and sleet, that should just about cover it! 

[NUT]

Not put the heating on like I do every morning as it's so mild no need

[Hairy Celt]

Warm and damp out this morning, hints of mist here and there on my way north and as usual a nice sunrise to watch.

Can't see snow before Boxing Day at earliest, prob not even then.  I shall maintain pessimism until I see flakes as it's worked for the last few weeks.

[Ruzzi]

I'll post this here for amusement more than anything seen as the thread is quiet and it will most definitely get deleted by the mods lol. 

Anyway in the Model Thread, someone asked what the EC snow charts looked like on the most recent run and a reply was made that unless you live on high ground in Wales or the Peak District then they weren't worth posting ..... so here are the charts they were referring to! 

Considerable snow in large areas of Scotland and Northern Ireland and here is the nice reply I gave ...

"Well would you look at that.... there are other places outwith England, much to the shock and amazement of some I'm sure. 

ECM snow charts show a healthy snow potential for Scotland (the bit to the north of the centre of everything) and also Northern Ireland (the bit to the north west and over the blue stuff, from the centre of everything). 

A balanced model discussion would be appreciated (honestly no digs at anyone in particular) and as these ECM snow charts show, there is most definitely a wintery interest in the 'UK' .... and it is affecting a similar size of area (if not bigger) of the snow affected parts of wales and the midlands during the slider-gate carry on. 

The bias in this thread genuinely leads many to not even bother visiting and this is evident in the regionals by the disgruntled members.

These charts definitely show that there is potential for some quite disruptive wintery weather (granted they are to be taken with a huge pinch of salt) but it still highlights potential. It will ofcourse change on subsequent model runs but corrections or upgrades either way could indeed lead the wintery potential further south. Its far better having potential than SWlys with rain and mild mush and no hint of any surprises."

Off to get my blue paint and kilt dig out ?

 

 

Edited December 20, 2017 by Ruzzi

[Hairy Celt]

11 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

I'll post this here for amusement more than anything seen as the thread is quiet and it will most definitely get deleted by the mods lol. 

Anyway in the Model Thread, someone asked what the EC snow charts looked like on the most recent run and a reply was made that unless you live on high ground in Wales or the Peak District then they weren't worth posting ..... so here are the charts they were referring to! 

Considerable snow in large areas of Scotland and Northern Ireland and here is the nice reply I gave ...

"Well would you look at that.... there are other places outwith England, much to the shock and amazement of some I'm sure. 

ECM snow charts show a healthy snow potential for Scotland (the bit to the north of the centre of everything) and also Northern Ireland (the bit to the north west and over the blue stuff, from the centre of everything). 

A balanced model discussion would be appreciated (honestly no digs at anyone in particular) and as these ECM snow charts show, there is most definitely a wintery interest in the 'UK' .... and it is affecting a similar size of area (if not bigger) of the snow affected parts of wales and the midlands during the slider-gate carry on. 

The bias in this thread genuinely leads many to not even bother visiting and this is evident in the regionals by the disgruntled members.

These charts definitely show that there is potential for some quite disruptive wintery weather (granted they are to be taken with a huge pinch of salt) but it still highlights potential. It will ofcourse change on subsequent model runs but corrections or upgrades either way could indeed lead the wintery potential further south. Its far better having potential than SWlys with rain and mild mush and no hint of any surprises."

Off to get my blue paint and kilt dig out ?

 

 

Yeah I get your point but why keep banging on about it? Everyone can pick charts and show regional bias. Anti-English frothing doesn't go down well with plenty of folk in here either.

[Northernlights]

Cooler today with a maximum of 7c currently 5.5c. A lot of weak winter sunshine today but in spite of this all surfaces remained soaking wet.

A bit of a breeze in the afternoon took the worst of the dampness off Mrs Northernlights washing. She has a bad throat just now and has lost her voice !!! Saying no more.Therefore she is a teacher with a bell!!! 

Cattle sweating a bit these last few days .YoYo temperatures not good for man nor beast.

[Ruzzi]

32 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Yeah I get your point but why keep banging on about it? Everyone can pick charts and show regional bias. Anti-English frothing doesn't go down well with plenty of folk in here either.

Nah it's not intended as Anti-English frothing, I'm aware that many in here are English or have english family etc as I do also, and I agree everyone can have Model bias but I mentioned it in the Model Thread because it's infuriating reading when it is so bias towards England and it only takes one post before people start re-thinking how they observe things to purport it from a non-bias view, which has been the case already since my post in the Model Thread. It just seems it may aswell be the English Netweather Model Thread at times. There's much to be gained in the Model Thread in terms of knowledge but it's nice to get a balanced view and a realistic prospect of upcoming weather as a whole to include the likes of Scotland and Northern Ireland. The braveheart thing was merely light hearted and I didn't post that in the Model Thread ofcourse. It's not about being anti English in any way, that's not what I was trying to get at, it was the fact that a large number forget Scotland or Ireland exists and it's as if England is the centre of everything. It comes across as arrogance if I'm honest that so long as it doesn't occur in England then it doesn't matter. And I know it's only the weather, but it can certainly have impacts up here and put lives at risk and risk of injuries etc etc and it goes completely under the radar at times as long as it's not happening down south. I am interested in weather that happens down south and read every post in the Model Thread through out the whole slider gate thing out of interest. I'd just like an involvement of Scotland when decent Synoptics are arising for up here because I think it's only fair when there is so many Scottish and also Irish members because it would be nice to read some detailed and interesting analysis in the Model Thread when the interest is involving us rather than the only interesting discussion taking place when any potential events are down south. I'm sure if it was roles reversed there would be plenty said about it. 

And I had no intention of reposting it in here but it's been so quiet here due to the obvious crappy weather currently that I thought it might lighten up the thread a wee bit. 

[Hawesy]

I have to say, HC, that I read Ruzzi’s post as purely about challenging people to be inclusive in their MO discussion, not with any sense of there being anti-English content.

In years gone by I used to post on TWO but one of the reasons I moved over here to this thread was simply that there was more local input about the weather where I live (and of course the banter is of a high quality ). This thread is inclusive, it’s friendly and it’s not too precious about the weather. Other aspects of life (politics, religion, etc.) are bound to come out in conversation now and again but I think the contributors to this thread do an admirable job of keeping it light, informative and entertaining....while still stamping their personality on their posts.

Since it’s the season of goodwill, I’d like to thank you people for making this thread such a good read.

 

[Ruzzi]

3 hours ago, Hawesy said:

I have to say, HC, that I read Ruzzi’s post as purely about challenging people to be inclusive in their MO discussion, not with any sense of there being anti-English content.

In years gone by I used to post on TWO but one of the reasons I moved over here to this thread was simply that there was more local input about the weather where I live (and of course the banter is of a high quality ). This thread is inclusive, it’s friendly and it’s not too precious about the weather. Other aspects of life (politics, religion, etc.) are bound to come out in conversation now and again but I think the contributors to this thread do an admirable job of keeping it light, informative and entertaining....while still stamping their personality on their posts.

Since it’s the season of goodwill, I’d like to thank you people for making this thread such a good read.

 

I couldn't agree more!! And just to echo what you said, I most definitely was not being Anti-English, it was more that many members south of the border are being anti-observant when it comes to any interesting or potentially favourable Synoptics for the likes of Scotland and Northern Ireland. I get that people will still view models and write about them with some location bias, but it's been so apparent recently after the slider situation that I genuinely lost interest in the Model Thread for a bit after the snow fell down south and I only wanted to remind members that there is still plenty favourable Synoptics appearing for Scotland and Northern Ireland this time round. Can you imagine to buzz and excitement in the Model Thread if the snow charts that are being produced for Scotland at the moment were showing in the south? ? But yet the Model Thread is largely dire at the moment simply because most potential snow events does not include the majority of England.

I'll stop going on about it anyway but out of interest, there has definitely been members taking notice of my post because In the page and a half that follows my post there is all of a sudden plenty mention of Scotland and the upcoming evolutions being favourable for Scotland etc, and Nick F to his credit has given a pretty decent synopsis with his post focussing only on Scotland:

" Plenty of wintry interest for our Scottish contingent Boxing Day onwards from 18z GFS, with cold polar air bringing snow showers packing in behind that deepening low clearing out into the North Sea early Tuesday - though could be blizzards over the hills with the northwesterly gale. Then next low pressure system moving in from the west on Wednesday could bring further snow to Scotland as frontal system bumps into cold air here. However, differences quickly increase between GFS and EC on timing, depth and track of these lows Boxing Day onwards, so too early to make any worthwhile predictions of where and when it may snow let alone snow depth charts from EC!"

All I was wanting to achieve was reminding many that it's an exciting prospect up here at the moment and a balanced overview of the models is better for everyone rather than just England orientated.

Definitely worth keeping an eye on up here anyway, will post charts shortly of the interest ... as long as it's not flipped to a S'ly ??

 

[Ruzzi]

Just a quick insight to what the 18Z GFS churned out in terms of snow opportunities for xmas night, I just picked a few charts to give an idea, as they will most definitely change and Cross model agreement isn't extending too far ahead at present. Certainly enough to keep the eye brow raised anyway ...

This is the snow accumulation from the GFS which doesn't match the ECM ones certainly but the fact that both are forecasting widespread snow over for Scotland next week will do as a trend for now 

 

Edited December 21, 2017 by Ruzzi

[Northernlights]

Just for a bit of background my mother was  a Londoner  but my father was born here  on the farm ( a  farm tenancy of 300 odd years where some of our ancestors came from the borders) so I have a foot in both camps. I agree there can appear to be an English bias more a London bias on here sometimes but then the bulk of the UKs population live there . For the sake of the unity of the UK a recognition that we are part of the UK a more balanced interpretation of the weather forecasts for the whole of the UK would be helpful . 

Yes we are always likely to have more wintry weather up here as we 500 plus miles nearer to the Arctic Circle. I often despair of National land agent firms who think Scottish farm rents should match English ones but forget our costs are higher with 7 month winters up here compared to almost no winter in the far  SW of England  as it has always been.

Just a final comment. Was in the supermarket last night and there was hardly a local accent with most being south of UK so Scotland must be doing something right in spite of our  climate to attract them to live here.

Currently dry and 6c

 

 

 

[CoastRainbow]

Happy Solstice !! Wishing you all a peaceful and happy day ! The weather may be dull , but I am sure that will change as we head to Hogmanay !! Wee sunrise from earlier on this week 

[mardatha]

I hear English folk on other forums moaning that the south-east and London get all the attention Ruzzi, so it's that wee corner of England v the Rest of the Country I think. And there's nowt wrong wi  a kilt and some blue paint,  I wouldn't be seen deid in the Co-Op withoot it 

[NorthernRab]

1 hour ago, CoastRainbow said:

Happy Solstice !! Wishing you all a peaceful and happy day ! The weather may be dull , but I am sure that will change as we head to Hogmanay !! Wee sunrise from earlier on this week 

Thanks!

Me, HC, Northern Strath, Northern Lights etc away out to Chanonry Point later to sacrifice Sean Batty to the snow Gods. 

Edited December 21, 2017 by NorthernRab

[Mr Frost]

Not the best outlook for Winter weather on low ground South of the Highlands anytime soon.

All I can see is some snow in Northern Scotland and snow over 300 meters elsewhere up to the New Year. (bog standard Scottish Winter weather)

Looks pretty miserable for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with heavy rain and strong winds for a large part of Scotland.

Bring back that wall to wall sunshine and hard frosts I said was boring me last week.

Heading up Cairngorm mountain and Ben Nevis between Christmas and New Year so will get snow there at least! 

Have a very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year everyone!