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Captain Shortwave

SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

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Thick fog forming in places - autumnal! Lassies’s fog index under test for this winter. :D  

1972AEB9-0915-4084-BE11-8557B454EF46.thumb.jpeg.43ee57a1a6620b271a3234d23f6e1850.jpeg

Edited by Daniel*

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7 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Hi Chris - I'm puzzled. What forecast was that? Because this afternoon's GFS and Arpege 12z runs continue to suggest the afternoon and evening worse for our Region - maybe even overnight into Sunday for your neck of the woods.

Firstly GFS and we can see the strongest gusts are impacting the South West and Wales at 11.00, with the southern coastal strip of our Region impacted by around 14.00, all of the Region impacted by 17.00, and the worst cleared through by 20.00.

59e789f149c6e_GFSWindGustsSat21Oct11_00.thumb.GIF.73926c4f71612ecea2aa8632dc0b38cb.GIF59e789fc0b4e5_GFSWindGustsSat21Oct14_00.thumb.GIF.0060a4265bcb91c9c7144bc5cf00c3c5.GIF59e78a05d108b_GFSWindGustsSat21Oct17_00.thumb.GIF.d7cd305e9e82ad7ecd895a71e8fb6de9.GIF59e78a609cf8d_GFSWindGustsSat21Oct20_00.thumb.GIF.3ae9c94b91605ed3ec29506928f2a1df.GIF

Secondly Arpege and whilst similar has some notable differences, especially with the track of the low being further south and thus as it clears through into the North Sea strong winds continue to impact our Region into breakfast time on Sunday. Charts for Sat 11.00, 14.00, 17.00 and Sun 08.00:

59e78aa169c46_ArpegeWindGustsSat21Oct11_00.thumb.GIF.b5868b1c603eb8854a66ddd6d4f0fa5c.GIF59e78c9f1f0ba_ArpegeWindGustsSat21Oct14_00.thumb.GIF.2d62b2843457b7b8de92d4546e8b0b1b.GIF59e78cae2b6ac_ArpegeWindGustsSat21Oct17_00.thumb.GIF.b10e3316dbfa7799bc92d4b5fb4eb3e0.GIF59e78cee7eb7a_ArpegeWindGustsSun22Oct08_00.thumb.GIF.5986e03b9ab670311f537450cf05980e.GIF

As I said this morning, timing and track not pinned down yet, so I'm sure we'll see some changes to one or both of these model's forecasts before Saturday. :)

 

 

Evening Malcolm.  IIRC, it was the often-useless Look East forecast after the main news (just before 2 p.m.)

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Alex on the evening forecast just now said the same thing - rain overnight Friday into Saturday, windy early Saturday but easing during the day, with strongest gusts around 40 mph.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

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20 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Evening Malcolm.  IIRC, it was the often-useless Look East forecast after the main news (just before 2 p.m.)

Ah, now I understand!! BBC Look East use a company called Weatherquest, a private weather forecasting and weather analysis company based in Norwich (where Look East studios are) to put a local slant on our Regional forecast. Jim Bacon (ex Met Office) is their MD and you'll often see him presenting a forecast (as well as other employees Dan Holley and Chris Bell). Weatherquest 'slants' do sometimes vary from the main BBC Met Office forecast. Personally I've no problem with that - often they give us a more accurate local forecast, but occasionally less so!! 

4 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Alex on the evening forecast just now said the same thing - rain overnight Friday into Saturday, windy early Saturday but easing during the day, with strongest gusts around 40 mph.

Lol..... we're just going to have to wait and see Chris!! :)

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Didn't find it overly cool today but coming back from school a bit earlier , there is fresher air here now - needed that jumper and coat.

Wind can do one, already had a power cut don't want another one.

Just under a month till my B'day and B'day stuffs. I expect 4 foot of snow by then.

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17 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Ah, now I understand!! BBC Look East use a company called Weatherquest, a private weather forecasting and weather analysis company based in Norwich (where Look East studios are) to put a local slant on our Regional forecast. Jim Bacon (ex Met Office) is their MD and you'll often see him presenting a forecast (as well as other employees Dan Holley and Chris Bell). Weatherquest 'slants' do sometimes vary from the main BBC Met Office forecast. Personally I've no problem with that - often they give us a more accurate local forecast, but occasionally less so!! 

Lol..... we're just going to have to wait and see Chris!! :)

I'm not convinced that Weatherquest have much if anything to do with the lunchtime forecasts, actually Malcolm.  Some of the presenters who I first saw there have gone on to do the national lunchtime forecasts, plus, on occasions, the local newsreader will hand over to the weather presenter in person, but, more often, they introduce a forecast that was obviously videoed earlier and just played-in to the broadcast, which makes me think that someone in London or Salford films several regional forecasts and then does another live.  I agree regarding the evening forecasts; if you notice my username it shows that I'm well aware of my Weatherquest namesake (I did a fantastic double take when his name was first announced a few years ago), and,of course, Dan Holley occasionally posts on Netweather as "Staplehurst".  Your point regarding the slant they place on their forecasts also makes me suspicious of the provenance of their lunchtime forecasts as the presenters never say that the thinking is that the computer output is wrong, yet this is a not infrequent occurrence in the evening.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

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6 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Thick fog forming in places - autumnal! Lassies’s fog index under test for this winter. :D  

1972AEB9-0915-4084-BE11-8557B454EF46.thumb.jpeg.43ee57a1a6620b271a3234d23f6e1850.jpeg

I haven't had any yet and it's already the 19th of October

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58 minutes ago, Chillyhills said:

FOG :ninja:

one snow fall coming your way this winter:good:

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On 17/10/2017 at 16:28, knightstorm87 said:

Awwww he's a cutey ! :)  What's his name?

Sherpa, because the breeder said that at just 3 weeks old one of the boy puppies managed to scale the heights of a kitchen chair. I liked the name although not sure if it was my puppy!  Have put a couple of photos in the pet thread. 

Edited by Soaring Hawk

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Very dark this morning; still barely light and it's only October..

Temp 14C

Wind SSE 3

Pressure 1007

Visibility poor, although last night's fog has dissipated. 

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Gloomy, a bit misty and damp in London this morning, but at least noticeably warmer than back home in Bristol. Feels like a cool tropical day.

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4 hours ago, MP-R said:

Gloomy, a bit misty and damp in London this morning, but at least noticeably warmer than back home in Bristol. Feels like a cool tropical day.

Very devoid of sunshine this month with the nights rapidly drawing in it’s depressing the highlight has been the ‘yellow sky’ on the thirty year anniversary of the Great Storm. September here was very wet October I do not think there has been any rainfall talk about stark contrast - just overcast certainly is scoring poorly with me.

BF9B8535-05F2-4753-9EE1-B4B757B4DADE.thumb.jpeg.2ebfd89f502eaa2c330affa1131e442a.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Very devoid of sunshine this month with the nights rapidly drawing in it’s depressing the highlight has been the ‘yellow sky’ on the thirty year anniversary of the Great Storm. September here was very wet October I do not think there has been any rainfall talk about stark contrast - just overcast certainly is scoring poorly with me.

BF9B8535-05F2-4753-9EE1-B4B757B4DADE.thumb.jpeg.2ebfd89f502eaa2c330affa1131e442a.jpeg

Agreed! Similar in my neck of the woods too. October really hasn't produced much in the way of rain in my neck of woods (until today by the looks of it) with just the odd weak front passing through. Despite being much wetter though, September was definitely preferable given the convective nature of most of the rain and the sunny intervals.

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14 hours ago, lassie23 said:

one snow fall coming your way this winter:good:

yay i got fog.

That will be ONE snowflake.

Hoorah.

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4 hours ago, Alpine glow said:

What a great weekend to pick to go camping in Uckfield :wallbash:

it won't be as bad as first thought, 50 mph winds instead of 80:santa-emoji:

 

48 minutes ago, Dami said:

yay i got fog.

That will be ONE snowflake.

Hoorah.

do you mind sharing it with me:friends:

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no lass.

Did you share your thunder?

no.

cost ya.

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7 minutes ago, Dami said:

no lass.

Did you share your thunder?

no.

cost ya.

I didn't have any:whistling:

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Looked at the wind charts and ppn charts and looked like squall line potential, so check the radar, not to sure what way this one will go.. If it will die out or go with the front associated with a small low over Wales 

Screenshot_20171019-182114.thumb.png.d23016cf6d8abed457f98623cbfd41b7.pngScreenshot_20171019-182026.thumb.png.421a6e9efa657a0ae6af5a256b7e77c9.png

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2 hours ago, Surrey said:

Looked at the wind charts and ppn charts and looked like squall line potential, so check the radar, not to sure what way this one will go.. If it will die out or go with the front associated with a small low over Wales 

Screenshot_20171019-182114.thumb.png.d23016cf6d8abed457f98623cbfd41b7.pngScreenshot_20171019-182026.thumb.png.421a6e9efa657a0ae6af5a256b7e77c9.png

Just about to hit london and looks rather heavier now too.

Edited by alexisj9

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If you didnt sort out that loose fence this summer......youre gonna lose it between now and Saturday night........me included! :oops:

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Quite windy right now here, really picked up with the rain.

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5 hours ago, Surrey said:

Looked at the wind charts and ppn charts and looked like squall line potential, so check the radar, not to sure what way this one will go.. If it will die out or go with the front associated with a small low over Wales 

Screenshot_20171019-182114.thumb.png.d23016cf6d8abed457f98623cbfd41b7.pngScreenshot_20171019-182026.thumb.png.421a6e9efa657a0ae6af5a256b7e77c9.png

It seems to have perked up since your post Luke. It's been blowing a gale down here on the South Coast for the last couple of hours with some heavy showers thrown in.

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6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Quite windy right now here, really picked up with the rain.

Check out the gust strength on BBC Weather for your location from now til Saturday......I didnt expect that amount of 40mph+ gusts....

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