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Captain Shortwave

SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

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4 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

Slow moving thunderstorms, some would say the best type of storm weather, however they normally mean flash floods, I'm hoping not to much of that happens.

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Drizzle here.  Nieces are bored, they are just doing endless craft and colouring in. And we're near the end of the warning area which means we won't get anything exciting in thw next few days. And I stupidly gave my allotment a proper water without looking at the forecast first. Harumph.:nonono:

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Day is quite nice here, sunny, although it's through thin high milky cloud, warm, not much wind about. 

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The next couple of days look dreadful though I guess the risk of thunder downpours tomorrow would offer some interest. As for today, well slowly approaching home, stopped at a cafe around 30 miles from Calais. Lovely day ahead of that front with light winds. Back in Dover this evening.

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27 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The next couple of days look dreadful though I guess the risk of thunder downpours tomorrow would offer some interest. As for today, well slowly approaching home, stopped at a cafe around 30 miles from Calais. Lovely day ahead of that front with light winds. Back in Dover this evening.

Probably the best day all week to enjoy the cross channel ferry, view is all the way across. More importantly, the sea is the calmest I have seen it for days. More or less still.

Edited by alexisj9
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2 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The next couple of days look dreadful though I guess the risk of thunder downpours tomorrow would offer some interest. As for today, well slowly approaching home, stopped at a cafe around 30 miles from Calais. Lovely day ahead of that front with light winds. Back in Dover this evening.

Stay in France lol, lovely day in Paris at 27C and sunny, am so envious. As soon as you reach the UK....well, hope you like grey!

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38 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Stay in France lol, lovely day in Paris at 27C and sunny, am so envious. As soon as you reach the UK....well, hope you like grey!

Nice and sunny here, so may be as soon as he leaves the extreme SE.

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Dark and rainy, over here...No thunder.

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Evening fellow weather gang members, will do a full type up of tomorrow and Wednesday when on the computer shortly 

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It looks like this area of the country could well receive the most rainfall , in the next 48 hrs, of course its needed:yahoo::yahoo::yahoo:

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13 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

It looks like this area of the country could well receive the most rainfall , in the next 48 hrs, of course its needed:yahoo::yahoo::yahoo:

You are surely joking, that said I see you aren't actualy in the South East ?!   We have had plenty of rain in my neck of the woods in the last few weeks and an absolute soaking at peak holiday time down here on the South Coast is the last thing that is needed.

The summer which started off so well here has deteriorated into a soggy wet cloud covered mess of tepid temperatures and many an outdoor event ruined. :angry:

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2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Dark and rainy, over here...No thunder.

Nowt here, the difference 7 miles makes eh! 

Fingers crossed for a lovely soaking here the next two days :D I'm gonna be peed off if it halts or goes around us and we end up with drizzle and all around gets a couple of inches :diablo:

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As promised, its actually quite an interesting setup that is currently getting going over us and the surrounding waters.. Ive seen this a few times but they are different each time when it comes to stalling fronts and troughs within an area of low pressure, cast our minds back to when we had that slow one moving in from the West that was expected to pivot (and did) over us a few months back.. 

Fisrtly, the fax charts and as we thought, stalling fronts and troughs 

Met Office Fax Synoptic ChartMet Office Fax Synoptic ChartMet Office Fax Synoptic ChartMet Office Fax Synoptic ChartMet Office Fax Synoptic Chart

A real mix up of troughs and fronts stalling and very slowly moving around the low pressure. In fact at one point a triple point is smack bang over us! The number of troughs also concerns me too Its not until Thursday it actually decides to move out!!

To be honest looking at the various models on how much rain, it varies massively! We can't even begin to guess really what will pop up. I would guess a fair few hefty and almost stationary thunderstorms and showers. Along any troughs we could get almost lines of heavy torrential slow moving rain.

However, there is a favor in some models to have the worst of the rain to the North of the region. I think the massive variance in the models is why the MET have a larger warning area.

 

 Precipitation accum. EURO4 We 09.08.2017 12 GMTaccprecip_042.jpg?2017080712accprecip_042.jpg?2017080712accprecip_042.jpg?2017080712

Totals up to around 42-48 hours of the 12z today

I think we need to wait for the runs overnight and tomorrow to see , all down to radar now..

 

 

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I see a warning out mainly for South East. l for Thundery conditions. Is this the Warm Front or following Troughs to cause this anybody know? One forecast says Thundery Rain (which you would think from the Warm Front which is unusual) yet another Forecast mentions Thundery Showers which I would expect from a Trough.

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28 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

Nowt here, the difference 7 miles makes eh! 

Fingers crossed for a lovely soaking here the next two days :D I'm gonna be peed off if it halts or goes around us and we end up with drizzle and all around gets a couple of inches :diablo:

It was weird today, first time i have driven in about 8 months, new battery in car so had to drive quite a way to keep the charge, so just drove between lowestoft/beccles/yarmouth, backwards and forwards a couple of times, parts were dry and sunny, parts were dark and overcast, and there was rain in places, and its not that far between them.

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Finally made it back to the UK. Partly cloudy in Dover with just high cloud so not much difference to France at the moment.

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33 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Finally made it back to the UK. Partly cloudy in Dover with just high cloud so not much difference to France at the moment.

Welcome home.

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Couldn't give a monkeys if we miss a storm tomorrow or Wednesday, julys monster still hasn't left the system yet

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16 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Couldn't give a monkeys if we miss a storm tomorrow or Wednesday, julys monster still hasn't left the system yet

Feel the same about the mcs end of may down here, nothing is ever going to beat it. 

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7 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Stay in France lol, lovely day in Paris at 27C and sunny, am so envious. As soon as you reach the UK....well, hope you like grey!

It was pretty much perfect, impressive how just moving a couple of hundred miles can do. All those active fronts just for a death and you are left with light rain at worst. I don't think even the heat haters would have minded the conditions down here with temperatures in the mid twenties, in fact the last couple of mornings were rather chilly with temperatures dipping to around 10c but with lots of sunshine recovering back to near normal for the region.

The next two days look wet or potentially very wet with thunderstorms embedded in the bands of rain developing under that area of low pressure.

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46 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

It was pretty much perfect, impressive how just moving a couple of hundred miles can do. All those active fronts just for a death and you are left with light rain at worst. I don't think even the heat haters would have minded the conditions down here with temperatures in the mid twenties, in fact the last couple of mornings were rather chilly with temperatures dipping to around 10c but with lots of sunshine recovering back to near normal for the region.

The next two days look wet or potentially very wet with thunderstorms embedded in the bands of rain developing under that area of low pressure.

You were lucky with the sun and warmth, how nice to have that for your trip, hope you had a great time? Without the jet stuck too far south like it is now, the weather here should have been like you had there. Paris is normally only a degree or two warmer than London in summer. Today, it was about 6C higher, due to a front over our region that's not going to clear until Thursday afternoon. Yes, 3 days away lol...

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up at 5:30 'cos men from JL are coming to fix blinds and curtains. Was raining then. Still raining now. Cloud doesn't seem to be moving much, and quite a lot of rain, considering we are just about on the edge of the cloud. 

Cool as well. 

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