SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[Blessed Weather]

10 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Looking like the weather will take a real downturn next week if models are to be believed, plenty of rain or showers and not very warm. Hopefully some decent convective activity to come at least and some sun to raise temperatures. Can't be doing cold and wet at this time of year.

Mixed feelings from me stainesbloke. Absolutely agree with most of your post - but the prospect of finally getting some "wet" next week is welcomed by me!! GFS certainly seems to be firming up on some useful rain for our Region next Weds/Thurs.

A funny old day today - really dark and gloomy for most of the time, a few brighter spells, but then this evening the cloud melts away to give a lovely sunny end to the day (typical). 

Gloomy today, but even then some great clouds about....

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Both the euro4 and in house high res fancy breaking out some showers tomorrow along the m4 corridor could be a little further north though

[Daniel*]

Very much needed rainfall not silly amounts on the way midweek when was the last proper soaking? It has been so long. London is bone dry! ☔️ 

[Dami]

well. Having woken up to heavy drizzle the other day, i got woken up by hubs telling me it's raining and we don't have to water the lawn today. Nice to see some rain.

After telling me i don't need any more bags and coats he surprised me by buying me a summer bag and a gilet. So i got  more surprise stuffs. 

and the gilet is waterproof too.

bonus.

[Blessed Weather]

Once again a front passes through here and by the time it does it has very little rain left on it. In particular, London seems to drain a front of moisture as it passes over. So with me downstream on the prevailing SW'ly wind, rain events often fail to deliver. This morning there's just enough drizzle to damp the ground, but of no use for plants.

Radar 08.00

Monday's warm front looks like repeating this for my location - I'm expecting very little rain. But it's the other extreme for the west and north of the UK with the Met Office warning of up to 3 inches of rain!! Weds looks like finally delivering here, with a long wriggling front stuck over the Region.

Fax Chart Monday 12.00   Weds 12.00 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Possibly a few rouge sharp showers around later on today. 

Although it will be very hit and miss.. 

Manged to get some rain here last night the radar suggested we had a fee heavier bursts. Need more though, we have had emails from the water company saying a hose pipe ban might come in

 

[stainesbloke]

12 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Mixed feelings from me stainesbloke. Absolutely agree with most of your post - but the prospect of finally getting some "wet" next week is welcomed by me!! GFS certainly seems to be firming up on some useful rain for our Region next Weds/Thurs.

A funny old day today - really dark and gloomy for most of the time, a few brighter spells, but then this evening the cloud melts away to give a lovely sunny end to the day (typical). 

Gloomy today, but even then some great clouds about.... 

Yes I agree that we need a lot of rain. I'm hoping it will be decent rain and not useless drizzle blowing about in the wind, with cold temperatures. If it's warm and showery/thundery, fine 

[seaside 60]

They been promising rain for a few days now..

Come the day where is it, yes its been damp at times but the old Shoebury rain shield continues to do its job.

It will change but people who keep relying on the GFS for forward forecasting will always be sadly let down. 

[Methuselah]

It's raining here this morning. It'd that nice steady stuff too.

[Dami]

yep woke up to steady rain. sunny now.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Sun is very warm out.. 

Few clouds bubbling up

[Sardonixs]

First time since the start of February that I have had four consecutive days with measured rainfall here; not amounted to much though (2.6mm).  Still only at 25% of average for the month.  Even though not looking forward to a wet day hope any rain mid week amounts to something.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Quite a hefty shower over Kent way

[Atmogenic]

yeah that pretty heavy shower that's nearly over Ashford looks menacing

 

 

[JennyJane1]

still absolutely freezing, went out wearing heavy winter coat again.heating back on.

[Captain Shortwave]

Nice day up here, lots of  sunshine and just some fair weather cloud moving through.

[Methuselah]

Dry with good sunny spells, 19C.

[stainesbloke]

20C here with sunny spells, can see a shower in the distance but dry here after this morning. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looks like the front has a bit more umph than anticipated. Welcome rain for many! 

[Sardonixs]

Was a lovely day yesterday plenty of sunshine and feeling warm with a high of 21c. Wet start today with it looking like will need to take umbrellas on the school run for this first time in a while.  Wednesday still looking like the wettest day of the working week.

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, Surrey said:

Looks like the front has a bit more umph than anticipated. Welcome rain for many! 

Yep, quite wet here this morning. Currently 14C with a moderate S'ly breeze. 

[Blessed Weather]

So a very disappointing weekend for rain here, and today's effort no more than nuisance value. So I'm really hoping this Wed/Thur's forecast of substantial rain delivers. But I have to say I'm getting very nervous as there appears to be some changes in forecasts about the exact extent of the eastward progression of the fronts. GFS this morning shows the problem, with the heavy rain only just reaching the east coast before clearing north. Note the big drop-off in rainfall amounts as you move from the west of our Region towards the east coast on the GFS high res rainfall accumulation chart.

I also notice a change in the BBC/Met Office graphics this morning (versus yesterday) that appears to be hinting that the heavy rain *may* stall before reaching the east coast??

And finally, this morning's Arpege 6z is very different from the earlier 0z run and is also now suggesting the heaviest rain doesn't reach the east coast.

But plenty of time for further changes and it wouldn't take much movement east for my location to get in on the much needed rain (he says hopefully!!).

 

[lassie23]

Got a DDDD here in london today, dreaded dull drizzle day

[Daniel*]

Just what the Doctor ordered! 'Good' shifts eastwards on current modelling.

Edited May 15, 2017 by Changing Skies

[Blessed Weather]

Wow!! I think the drought is about to come to an abrupt end!! Some great graphics from the BBC/Met Office this morning on their website video. The front initially drags it's feet over the west of the Region, so there could be up to 2 inches of rain possible there. Then the front eventually moves right through the Region giving everywhere a good soaking. And as a Brucie bonus there could well be some thunder & lightning too.