SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[moogyboobles]

I knew today would be eerie, just based on the warmth and breeze so made sure I had a few hours off work today (self employed). This orangeness was a bonus.
I enjoyed the sky from the pub garden.

[Emz by the Thames]

October Orange Sky Index (OOSI), anyone??

[lassie23]

5 hours ago, Team Squirrel said:

October Orange Sky Index (OOSI), anyone??

OOSI   like it

[alexisj9]

This is now in dover, thought dust and smoke were supposed to clear. Didn't expect to wake up to it. Got windy for a few hours last night, nothing major mind gusting at around 40mph.

[throwoff]

Winter is coming, I'm back.

I apologise in advance.

[alexisj9]

20 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Winter is coming, I'm back.

I apologise in advance.

I don't mind as long as you've brought a proper winter with you. Has to have at least one snowy channel low.

[Methuselah]

The sky has now taken a distinctly yellow hue...

[Guest]

it has become very dark and grey in Kingston now. I think SADS is already kicking in. Oh I wish i had had a holiday  this year!

[lassie23]

23 minutes ago, madmunch said:

it has become very dark and grey in Kingston now. I think SADS is already kicking in. Oh I wish i had had a holiday  this year!

Do you have a light box? Do they actually work?

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Do you have a light box? Do they actually work?

I've got a heavy box, but it'd probably not be much use?

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Do you have a light box? Do they actually work?

no i dont have one but i have considered it would like to know if anyone has experience of them?

[Uxbridge90]

Incredibly dark here in West London at the moment, some of the street lights have turned on.

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Incredibly dark here in West London at the moment, some of the street lights have turned on.

is it more dust?

[bluearmy]

Looks like upper warm front is bringing back some dust and Iberian smoke high up 

[Katrine Basso]

There has been a half an hour of bright sunshine this morning then it gradually became more cloudy as the morning went on. It now is cloudy and dull with a light breeze. It is cooler and more fresher than yesterdays humid breezy weather.

[snatter]

Unverified report on local Facebook group of a funnel cloud in Esher an hour ago. Is that feasible?

[Flaked Queen]

Really eerie day again .... yesterday was muggy but today temps seem much cooler 

[knightstorm87]

20 hours ago, Soaring Hawk said:

We also had the red sun and strange light this afternoon. Could smell the smoke from Portugal and Spain. However, the strangest thing was the birds falling silent for over an hour. My 8 month old Lab got freaked out by it all, would only go out into the garden if I stayed close to him and kept his eyes on that extraordinary sky. He was totally confused, bless him 

Awwww he's a cutey !   What's his name?

[Daniel*]

3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Looks like upper warm front is bringing back some dust and Iberian smoke high up 

Yep you can see the waft of smoke/dust coming up from Iberia on EUMetSat.

Absolutely incredible nature never fails to wow me...

[Blessed Weather]

Looking like a dull and dreary Wednesday for many of us with spits and spots of rain, so I'll move on quickly to the next weather event of interest - this coming Saturday's storm.

This morning the BBC/Met Office forecasts are describing it as potentially a nasty storm (but nowhere near as bad as Ophelia) with severe gales that could cause flooding along the Dorset and Sussex coast if it coincides with the high tide. But the exact track and timing of the storm is not yet pinned down - so one to watch.

BBC/Met Off

Arpege has the low in this position on Saturday at 19.00, and then tracks it to exit the Yorkshire coast at 05.00 Sunday:

GFS has the low approaching earlier and in this position on Saturday at 14.00, and then tracks it further north to exit the East Lothian coast at 02.00 Sunday:

Both models show the worst period for strong winds will be mid Saturday afternoon through to the early hours of Sunday. It will be interesting to see how these forecasts develop over the coming days.

Arpege Wind Gusts Sat 21.00

[Methuselah]

On 17/10/2017 at 13:06, madmunch said:

no i dont have one but i have considered it would like to know if anyone has experience of them?

I do mm...I bought one when I was living in Inverness; however, I never really found out how efficacious it really was: getting up at 5 a.m. meant that I was falling asleep by 7 p.m.

Anywho, back to today: it's absolutely peesing it down!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

7 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Looking like a dull and dreary Wednesday for many of us with spits and spots of rain, so I'll move on quickly to the next weather event of interest - this coming Saturday's storm.

This morning the BBC/Met Office forecasts are describing it as potentially a nasty storm (but nowhere near as bad as Ophelia) with severe gales that could cause flooding along the Dorset and Sussex coast if it coincides with the high tide. But the exact track and timing of the storm is not yet pinned down - so one to watch.

BBC/Met Off

Arpege has the low in this position on Saturday at 19.00, and then tracks it to exit the Yorkshire coast at 05.00 Sunday:

GFS has the low approaching earlier and in this position on Saturday at 14.00, and then tracks it further north to exit the East Lothian coast at 02.00 Sunday:

Both models show the worst period for strong winds will be mid Saturday afternoon through to the early hours of Sunday. It will be interesting to see how these forecasts develop over the coming days.

Arpege Wind Gusts Sat 21.00

This lunchtimes' forecasts suggested the worst being around on Saturday morning for our area, Malcolm, or so I thought.

[knightstorm87]

Looks like the strongest winds will stay south of us judging by this chart, looks like Northern French coast could cop it instead still plenty of time for fluctuations in it's predicted track though.

[Lauren]

Ugh. Getting much noticeably darker in the mornings and evenings now. Shan't belong until I'm commuting in the dark. DONT LIKE IT!

[Blessed Weather]

9 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

This lunchtimes' forecasts suggested the worst being around on Saturday morning for our area, Malcolm, or so I thought.

Hi Chris - I'm puzzled. What forecast was that? Because this afternoon's GFS and Arpege 12z runs continue to suggest the afternoon and evening worse for our Region - maybe even overnight into Sunday for your neck of the woods.

Firstly GFS and we can see the strongest gusts are impacting the South West and Wales at 11.00, with the southern coastal strip of our Region impacted by around 14.00, all of the Region impacted by 17.00, and the worst cleared through by 20.00.

Secondly Arpege and whilst similar has some notable differences, especially with the track of the low being further south and thus as it clears through into the North Sea strong winds continue to impact our Region into breakfast time on Sunday. Charts for Sat 11.00, 14.00, 17.00 and Sun 08.00:

As I said this morning, timing and track not pinned down yet, so I'm sure we'll see some changes to one or both of these model's forecasts before Saturday.