SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[Summer Sun]

Some rain to the south of the city but so far it's dry in the city after a few showers earlier

[Summer Sun]

Afternoon from Piccadilly Circus

[Bogman]

Potters Bar has thunder, thunder, thunder, thundercats..................

[Daniel*]

The day started foul but some clearer sunny breaks have developed, just had a crack of thunder sounded like an explosion must have been near! 

Edited September 11, 2017 by Daniel*

[Coopsy]

8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The day started foul but some clearer sunny breaks have developed, just had a crack of thunder sounded like an explosion must have been near! 

Same - in east London. One flash, one massive crack of thunder then nothing.

[Lauren]

Ominous.

 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Someone needs to help me out here, surely those met Office warnings and indeed the net weather ones need updating tomorrow if we continue to see the low for tomorrow modeled how it is, the south coast isn't covered by any warnings yet looks to have the longest period of high winds.. 

[alexisj9]

lovely day here today, a few showers around, mostly light. Should have took photo's.

[Lauren]

2 hours ago, Lauren said:

Ominous.

 

 

Well nothing more came of this than some moderate rain.

[wimblettben]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Someone needs to help me out here, surely those met Office warnings and indeed the net weather ones need updating tomorrow if we continue to see the low for tomorrow modeled how it is, the south coast isn't covered by any warnings yet looks to have the longest period of high winds.. 

The last forecast I saw showed the strongest winds across Northern England, maybe thats why.

Mind you the track has been all over the place during the last 24hrs so I don't think its set in stone yet.

[lassie23]

Got thunder and lightning

[Captain Shortwave]

Plenty of heavy showers today with some close flashes of lightning. Whilst not the settled September weather we have been used to over previous years it certainly has been interesting.

[tomp456]

A heavy shower earlier but other than that don't know what all the fuss is about 

 

bring on the summer 

[Blessed Weather]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

Someone needs to help me out here, surely those met Office warnings and indeed the net weather ones need updating tomorrow if we continue to see the low for tomorrow modeled how it is, the south coast isn't covered by any warnings yet looks to have the longest period of high winds.. 

BBC/Met Office video tonight has 55 mph gusts for the southern UK late Tuesday. For our Region the models continue to suggest the early hours of Wednesday will likely see the peak of strongest winds for our coastal fringes, but note the area of very strong winds on the southern flank of the Low pressure - the exact track of the Low will be one to watch with the northern extreme of our Region at risk of any slight movement south.

BBC/MO Tues 23.00  Arome Wed 04.00

[NO LONGER POSTING]

My Autumn prediction 

Autumn 2017 Prediction – Written 04/09/17

September

Wet and stormy start perhaps an early indication of what I predict Winter 2017/2018 will be. Although some late heat not ruled out mid-month. I predict some record breaking heat IF the American hurricanes track into the Mid-Atlantic and pull the Azores high North pulling up warm moist continental heat with it. This brining a threat of late season thunderstorms IF enough heat is pumped up. Which will get harder and harder as the month goes on.

 

Summery:

Rain: Above Average to start Perhaps localized very above average in any storms.

Wind: Potential very early Severe winds

Sun: Average Above Average late month

 

October

Following on from September IF the continued theme of warmer conditions extends then I think October will start warmer than Average. However, I still think October will play an important role for my Winter prediction. Some early High pressure I think will establish itself in October allowing for the first frosts of the season further North. In the south, I think this will lead to some Foggy and Misty conditions but with brighter days. Towards the end of October, I think we will see the first signs of stormy and un-settled conditions.

Summery:

Rain: Below Average to start and continue until later in the month. North perhaps turning wetter earlier than the south

Wind: Below Average

Sun: Above Average if High pressure is situated in correct place.

 

November

Stormy and a wet month to come. I don’t think any cold will be expected in November as a Westerly Dominated weather pattern sets up. A totally different month to October. The south always staying slightly drier than the North, but will also have its share in any Atlantic storms. Perhaps the first named storm of the season IF this does not occur at the end of October. This then locks us in for December, I personally feel any cold is reserved for the early part of 2018.

Summery:

Rain: Above average/very above average

Wind: Above Average / severe winds

Sun: Below average but brighter interludes between wetter periods always expected

 

 

[Blessed Weather]

Beautiful start with blue sky and (at the mo) just a stiff breeze. It will be rather different in 12 hours time. Matt on the Beeb has just said the incoming Low could be the first named storm of the season - they're obviously keeping a close watch. Tbh I'm surprised it isn't already named as the their own charts show 75 mph gusts across the middle of the UK and the winds over the south of the UK have been 'upped' to 60 mph from last night's chart. But then I found on the Met Office website that naming is more down to "impact" rather than weather thresholds:

"....to include more than one weather type, specifically rain if its impact could lead to flooding as advised by the Environment Agency, SEPA and Natural Resources Wales flood warnings. So in future 'storm systems' would be named on the basis of impacts from wind but could also include the impacts of rain and snow."

Anyway, a stormy 12 hour spell from this evening to tomorrow morning on it's way. Here's the BBC/Met Office charts:

Tonight 20.00  Weds 07.00

And for comparison, here's what 3 models predict as the areas of max gusts over the next 24 hours up to 09.00 tomorrow. NMM looks closest to the Met Office:

Arome  Arpege 

NMM

[tomp456]

The Met Office has put Worthing just outside of the wind warning. 

The models suggest other wise. 

[Alpine glow]

Well Aileen has brought me out of hiding.. ok, i've been stalking the Irma thread but Aileen has taken me to the Regionals.  Autumn is coming!!  Just a little shift South

[Blessed Weather]

So there we have it, the first named storm of the season:

And it's much earlier than the two previous years (since naming started):

Abigail 10th Nov 2015
Angus 19th Nov 2016

[lassie23]

Naming storms is silly, I can understand hurricanes but not deep lows.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

15 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Naming storms is silly, I can understand hurricanes but not deep lows.

Its all to do with trying to get people to pay more attention to them. Because, like this one it could bring some pretty high winds and do some damage especially with trees still in leaf. 

[Emz by the Thames]

On 8/15/2017 at 12:14, Team Squirrel said:

6am this morning saw a lovely mist over the fields in the distance - such a lovely late summer/early autumn thing. Home for the forseeable as we are selling up soon and I have to start that pre-selling clearout/tidy up type thing. As we will be more than likely moving from a 2nd floor flat into a somewhere with a garden, we are (somewhat prematurely) looking at weather stations and barbeques which is very exciting!! My partner is a Rasberry Pi fanatic and is wondering what weathery type fun he can have with that in a garden. 

I have this (completely ridiculous) weather forcasting system called the EWCI - that's the Early Winter Coat Index. I base this on observing how early in the season certain types of coats appear in ladies clothes shops. This arose from not being able to find a warm parka in the shops in September one year, only lightweight coats. That autumn and winter turned out to be eventless and mild (can't remember which year but..well take your pick). Obviously these huge retail consortium use long range forcasting to decide how much of what product to order and when to maximise profit, so I decided this was a good yardstick to see what the general themes of the upcoming season would be. Unfortunatly, I never actually reord my forcast - though I will this year!

So - here's my 'first half of autumn EWCI Forecast.  Some warm spells - but a more showery and blustery early autumn than in previous years. An M&S waterproof bodywarmer told me. 

Remember the OFI - October Fog Index?

 

Winter Coat Index  working out ok so far. 

We are outside the warning area but I'm going to secure a few things at the allotment later - hope I get there before the rain does.

Rest of the family all in the amber area - they have canceled evening plans.

Edited September 12, 2017 by Team Squirrel

[lassie23]

34 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Its all to do with trying to get people to pay more attention to them. Because, like this one it could bring some pretty high winds and do some damage especially with trees still in leaf. 

Not sure it works outside weather enthusiasts . I don't know anyone who can even remember the name of one storm last year.

 

34 minutes ago, Team Squirrel said:

Winter Coat Index  working out ok so far. 

We are outside the warning area but I'm going to secure a few things at the allotment later - hope I get there before the rain does.

Rest of the family all in the amber area - they have canceled evening plans.

Winter coat index we could do with more indexes. I grew one lousy corn on the cob and a rat nicked it

[Blazerblue]

Early start to my yearly, how many fence panels have I lost today count

should be an interesting dog walk in the morning along the coast 

[seaside 60]

6 hours ago, Surrey said:

My Autumn prediction 

Autumn 2017 Prediction – Written 04/09/17

September

Wet and stormy start perhaps an early indication of what I predict Winter 2017/2018 will be. Although some late heat not ruled out mid-month. I predict some record breaking heat IF the American hurricanes track into the Mid-Atlantic and pull the Azores high North pulling up warm moist continental heat with it. This brining a threat of late season thunderstorms IF enough heat is pumped up. Which will get harder and harder as the month goes on.

 

Summery:

Rain: Above Average to start Perhaps localized very above average in any storms.

Wind: Potential very early Severe winds

Sun: Average Above Average late month

 

October

Following on from September IF the continued theme of warmer conditions extends then I think October will start warmer than Average. However, I still think October will play an important role for my Winter prediction. Some early High pressure I think will establish itself in October allowing for the first frosts of the season further North. In the south, I think this will lead to some Foggy and Misty conditions but with brighter days. Towards the end of October, I think we will see the first signs of stormy and un-settled conditions.

Summery:

Rain: Below Average to start and continue until later in the month. North perhaps turning wetter earlier than the south

Wind: Below Average

Sun: Above Average if High pressure is situated in correct place.

 

November

Stormy and a wet month to come. I don’t think any cold will be expected in November as a Westerly Dominated weather pattern sets up. A totally different month to October. The south always staying slightly drier than the North, but will also have its share in any Atlantic storms. Perhaps the first named storm of the season IF this does not occur at the end of October. This then locks us in for December, I personally feel any cold is reserved for the early part of 2018.

Summery:

Rain: Above average/very above average

Wind: Above Average / severe winds

Sun: Below average but brighter interludes between wetter periods always expected

 

 

Well you got that one wrong already lol....

The weather always catches you out.