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SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

What a fantastic Bank Holiday weekend! And now we have confirmation that BH Monday was a record breaker.

Bank Holiday Monday was the hottest on record in late August the Met Office has confirmed. Temperatures hit 28.2C (82.8F) in Holbeach, southern Lincolnshire, surpassing the previous record of 27.2C (81F) in East Bergholt, Suffolk, in 1984.

Back to 'normal' tomorrow (Weds) though, with temps down 10C and rain for most of us. Over the last couple of days the models have been struggling to pin down the extent of the heaviest rainfall. Here's the forecast rainfall accumulation up to 02.00 on Thurs from a couple of the overnight 0z high res runs, with GFS going for the wettest scenario.

Arpege 59a53cf948cea_Arpege0z29AugCumPreciptoThur31Aug02_00.thumb.png.57577ebbd6ac01c40535705ae58d99d0.png GFS 59a53d15ad371_GFS0z29AugCumPrecipto31Aug02_00.thumb.GIF.26bafcbdad1bf3fdbf5b3c5777e8969c.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 minute ago, Blessed Weather said:

What a fantastic Bank Holiday weekend! And now we have confirmation that BH Monday was a record breaker.

Bank Holiday Monday was the hottest on record in late August the Met Office has confirmed. Temperatures hit 28.2C (82.8F) in Holbeach, southern Lincolnshire, surpassing the previous record of 27.2C (81F) in East Bergholt, Suffolk, in 1984.

Back to 'normal' tomorrow (Weds) though, with temps down 10C and rain for most of us. Over the last couple of days the models have been struggling to pin down the extent of the heaviest rainfall. Here's the forecast rainfall accumulation up to 02.00 on Thurs from a couple of the overnight 0z high res runs, with GFS going for the wettest scenario.

Arpege 59a53cf948cea_Arpege0z29AugCumPreciptoThur31Aug02_00.thumb.png.57577ebbd6ac01c40535705ae58d99d0.png GFS 59a53d15ad371_GFS0z29AugCumPrecipto31Aug02_00.thumb.GIF.26bafcbdad1bf3fdbf5b3c5777e8969c.GIF

Just wondering how much of that falls tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

On the way to work this morning I saw the mid level instability had arrived, absolutely nothing in the way of rain/storms, though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
3 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Just wondering how much of that falls tonight.

Potentially quite a lot if Arome model is correct Alexis! :)

Wed 04.00 59a56a27ba832_AromePrecipWed30Aug04_00.thumb.png.ea21354bbf40c6deae0f66394a6d4209.png

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Indeed, it's raining here in lowland East London, a sharp shower from out of nothing. Looking on the radar, a line of heavy showers is forming from Suffolk through Essex into east and south east London. Not widespread as yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk

Humidity has risen, what feels like 100%, here in the last hour, cloudy now after very warm sun most of the day, see a line of showers developed, hope they come this way :) also hope this is the last of the heat this summer, I know everyone seems to love it, me, hate it :diablo: roll on snow ❄️ 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Sky is interesting here now, just had a heavy shower from the ac cas that is around. No seferics about yet though.

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Posted
  • Location: Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: snow (but who doesnt like that)
  • Location: Rye East Sussex

It's clouded completely over now here in Rye. The humidity feels very high but it's only 64%. It's almost dark. I've just checked the weather radar and there seems to be a big rain front moving in from the sea. Let's see what the night holds, as long as it's cooler I don't mind. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
5 hours ago, stodge said:

Indeed, it's raining here in lowland East London, a sharp shower from out of nothing. Looking on the radar, a line of heavy showers is forming from Suffolk through Essex into east and south east London. Not widespread as yet.

Yes, I walked down to the local for a pint at teatime with umbrella up and everyone was talking about the heavy shower that had unexpectedly arrived from nowhere around 16.00. And this evening there's still a line of showers stretching from East London, Chelmsford, through Colchester, past Ipswich towards Lowestoft. Not sure exactly what's behind this, as the Met Office fax charts show the shower line to be between the advancing front and the trough off the Kent coast:

 59a5bff8ba959_FaxChartTues29Aug18_00.thumb.jpg.e608ce544d05689b79004f8b08a8c33d.jpg

Meanwhile the heavy showers thought likely for Kent have so far kept off shore.

20.00 59a5c006afa90_RadarTues29Aug20_00.thumb.jpg.5a4481a83ce220a316f31ada49077f0a.jpg

This evening, some of the 12z output suggests the wettest weather tomorrow will be a tad further east than earlier runs indicated, with the heavier rain out in the North Sea, although maybe still up to half inch for eastern most counties.

Here's the thoughts from tonight's Arome 12z run:

Rainfall accumulation to Thurs 02.00 59a5c010594de_Arome12zAccumPreciptoThur31Aug02_00.thumb.png.f7ea1447d175af80247771549c6b025c.png

Edit: Will the storms just leaving the French coast clip Kent later?

20.35 59a5c2b6920e6_RealtimeLightning20_35.thumb.jpg.aaf143b9a3281f50edbca05be585b3bc.jpg

Edited by Blessed Weather
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Posted
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk
51 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

 And this evening there's still a line of showers stretching from East London, Chelmsford, through Colchester, past Ipswich towards Lowestoft. 

Unfortunately stayed just south of us or fizzled entirely before reaching us :closedeyes: don't think that lot in the channel currently will reach us either. Still at least with the more north easterly breeze the humidity has gone tonight :)

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Not too bad for most of the day with good sunny spells and the temperature reached 24C. But as soon as the wind veered northerly the temperature has plummetted and the usual procession of low level cloud straight off the wash has begun. The is some outbreaks of drizzle from this as well now.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 minute ago, Blazerblue said:

Unfortunately stayed just south of us or fizzled entirely before reaching us :closedeyes: don't think that lot in the channel currently will reach us either. Still at least with the more north easterly breeze the humidity has gone tonight :)

Still humid here.

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft

Wow so hot and humid here tonight. Hoping it cools down soon 

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Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
On 23/08/2017 at 12:00, Surrey said:

Yes,some pretty hopeless forecasting by metoffice again.

Thank god they don't have to cope with weather like in Texas!

Not a bad morning here

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

Amount of rain fallen so far on washout Wednesday.

0,0mm.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

Didn't wake up to the complete washout that was forecast today for here.. Not a drop all morning, and even though it's barely 13c it's not too chilly.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Last night was interesting, although the storm didn't get anywhere near me, I could hear it, but it sounded strange. Only thing I can think of is, the sound was traveling through the mist that came over. Lot's of flashes from the channel.

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Posted
  • Location: Bucks/Berks border
  • Location: Bucks/Berks border

So thankful for a sunny weekend - managed to build most of the polytunnel. Strange observation I know...but there's an oak tree on our allotments and the acorns this year are ridiculously big, they are not even fitting in their little cups and there's so many of them. I don't know if it's a mast year but it's caught the attention of other people too!

As it's my first growing season, all eyes on first frost as that's when parsnips etc can be eaten. wonder when the first frost will be (January knowing my luck!!)

Sadly, all my pumpkins never stood a chance, back in May I planted them out just before a two day deluge and virtually all the stems split. The two that survived were weak plants that got finished off by powdery mildrew. So no Halloween pumpkins for me!

I have always watched the weather closely - but now your hard work depends on it!

Recently, I was reminded  of when it snowed in October here in High Wycombe in 2008,  massive snowflakes that took everyone by surprise and trapped people in shops. I can't remember if that was a localised thing or did it snow throughout the region?

Meteorological autumn in a few days - yesss!!!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Wet and cool on the coast how apt plenty of rain still to come it looks, a significant reversal to yesterday to how hot and summer like it was. 

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