SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[alexisj9]

Lovely sunny day here today, loving it, quige humid with it though. Looking  foreward to tonight, may be.

[Dami]

chilly this morning, popped to post box with bubs quite pleasant now cloudy.

Hubs has gotten us a gardener, so no more mowing or having to weed the patio.

posh, like.

[stainesbloke]

Got up to 24C here at lunchtime before the grey skies moved in, temperatures dropping down now and looking autumnal again. 

[Blessed Weather]

Here in Suffolk the weather peaked around 14.00 this afternoon. Just before the hour the temp maxed out at 22.4C and then just afterwards I recorded the strongest wind gust at 19 mph. And to be honest, as for my fears earlier today that cloud might spoil the day - well it didn't. The warm, hazy sunshine didn't finally disappear until around 17.00.

So just a very slim chance of a rumble of thunder overnight tonight. BBC/Met Office forecast suggesting the chance is restricted to the very far SE of the Region around 04.00 in the early hours. But the latest output from GFS and Arpege high res models this evening suggests that timing is wrong, with precipitation (and any rumbles) more likely around 11.00 Tues morning. As always, time will tell.......

BBC 04.00  GFS 11.00 

Arpege 11.00

[alexisj9]

Storm number 7 going on, main bit missing to the south.

[k66yla]

Had a couple of rumbles about 4am. Now raining hard

[Jimmyh]

Distant rumbling thunder must be the one you can hear alexis as i am in manston

[alexisj9]

52 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

Distant rumbling thunder must be the one you can hear alexis as i am in manston

Yep mostly all in the channel, could here it, but once it got light no more lightning seen. Think it's just cleared here now.

[Emz by the Thames]

6am this morning saw a lovely mist over the fields in the distance - such a lovely late summer/early autumn thing. Home for the forseeable as we are selling up soon and I have to start that pre-selling clearout/tidy up type thing. As we will be more than likely moving from a 2nd floor flat into a somewhere with a garden, we are (somewhat prematurely) looking at weather stations and barbeques which is very exciting!! My partner is a Rasberry Pi fanatic and is wondering what weathery type fun he can have with that in a garden. 

I have this (completely ridiculous) weather forcasting system called the EWCI - that's the Early Winter Coat Index. I base this on observing how early in the season certain types of coats appear in ladies clothes shops. This arose from not being able to find a warm parka in the shops in September one year, only lightweight coats. That autumn and winter turned out to be eventless and mild (can't remember which year but..well take your pick). Obviously these huge retail consortium use long range forcasting to decide how much of what product to order and when to maximise profit, so I decided this was a good yardstick to see what the general themes of the upcoming season would be. Unfortunatly, I never actually reord my forcast - though I will this year!

So - here's my 'first half of autumn EWCI Forecast.  Some warm spells - but a more showery and blustery early autumn than in previous years. An M&S waterproof bodywarmer told me 

Remember the OFI - October Fog Index? How did that work out?

 

 

[SenlacJack]

My next door neighbour has just confirmed we had a thunderstorm here around 4am this morning. Knowing it was a possibility from the forecast I left the bedroom window and curtains open overnight, but still slept right through it.

 

 

 

 

[stainesbloke]

Reasonable day here, sunny spells, light winds and 22C currently.

[alexisj9]

16 minutes ago, SenlacJack said:

My next door neighbour has just confirmed we had a thunderstorm here around 4am this morning. Knowing it was a possibility from the forecast I left the bedroom window and curtains open overnight, but still slept right through it.

 

 

 

 

Thunder was very far away, unless you live on that small line of strikes in kent. Just low sounding quiet rumbles, don't think it woke many people.

[Captain Shortwave]

Nice again, sunny spells and a high of 23C.

[Jimmyh]

Ok guys my pot here camping measured 0.25l of water in it. It was empty when i went to bed what does that equate to in mm

[Blessed Weather]

For all the talk of an "unsettled week" and "no sign of summer returning" this is turning out to be a very nice week so far. Sunny and 22.4C yesterday and even warmer today at 23.7C. And a forecast for more hazy sunshine and a high of 23C tomorrow!

[SenlacJack]

7 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Thunder was very far away, unless you live on that small line of strikes in kent. Just low sounding quiet rumbles, don't think it woke many people.

I did wonder about that Alexis but I've since heard several first hand reports from folk in my local area and reports from further along the coast in Eastbourne which all seem to confirm that storm made it ashore here in East Sussex at least.  Still annoyed I slept right through it !

It turned out to be a very pleasant summer day here once it moved through. Nothing special temperature wise with a max of 21.9c but clear blue skies right on the seafront with some impressive looking convective clouds bubbling up just inland all afternoon.

[Captain Shortwave]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

For all the talk of an "unsettled week" and "no sign of summer returning" this is turning out to be a very nice week so far. Sunny and 22.4C yesterday and even warmer today at 23.7C. And a forecast for more hazy sunshine and a high of 23C tomorrow!

This looks like a lucky week, rain last night, and it looks like tomorrow night will repeat this with Wednesday and Thursday daytime being fine and warm. The weekend looks a little cooler but nothing drastic and then maybe a warm up at the start of next week. Maybe we might recover from a rather poor first half of August.

[Reefseeker]

14 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

For all the talk of an "unsettled week" and "no sign of summer returning" this is turning out to be a very nice week so far. Sunny and 22.4C yesterday and even warmer today at 23.7C. And a forecast for more hazy sunshine and a high of 23C tomorrow!

I was thinking the exact same thing this morning. And the good weather has not just been a purely south-east thing, with plenty of other areas of the country enjoying spells of good weather. Here it has been pleasantly warm with some lovely cloudscapes, and this looks set to continue, with the rain, as @Captain Shortwave pointed out, reserving itself mostly for overnight. The nights are noticeably drawing in now; walking the dog last night, by 9 it was all but dark. Trees outside of campus are starting to show golden colours with more leaves underfoot. I love the long days of summer, but am still a wistful winter lover at heart, ever hopeful for that magical 'proper winter' we all crave and that this time of year starts to hint at.

[Daniel*]

The lack of anything overly warm has been unusual here in London nothing particularly cool, very pleasant a string of days in the low 20s, however we had a day or two in the low mid teens in London which is quite shocking, in fact in some locations record breakingly low highs for August. In recent years there seems to be a pattern with good summery weather good for holidaymakers returning upon once the kids go back to school in September. The weather of late has seen a marked improvement to what we have seen with the models suggesting a continuation of this settled regime and perhaps something a little warmer. I’d like some proper heat before we’re done for another year however I’m not too hopeful, I’m not interested in Autumnal gunk yet.

 

Edited August 16, 2017 by Daniel*

[Captain Shortwave]

Another decent day, sunny spells and a high of 23C again.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

21 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

For all the talk of an "unsettled week" and "no sign of summer returning" this is turning out to be a very nice week so far. Sunny and 22.4C yesterday and even warmer today at 23.7C. And a forecast for more hazy sunshine and a high of 23C tomorrow!

I'm surprised regarding how nice it's been, actually Malcolm.  Isn't tomorrow supposed to be wet  early-on, though?

[Blessed Weather]

2 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm surprised regarding how nice it's been, actually Malcolm.  Isn't tomorrow supposed to be wet  early-on, though?

Hi Chris. Yes, the overnight rain band not fully clearing our coastline until mid morning. Nevertheless, with some sunshine and just a few scattered showers by the afternoon, the Met Office still going for 22C to 23C for our part of the world - so not too bad.

Arpege 11.00  Met Office temps 16.00

Btw, temp got up to 22.9C here this afternoon, so the 3rd day on the trot above 22C.

[SenlacJack]

Today got off to a slow start with cloud cover for most of the morning but no complaints once it cleared, leading to a bright and mostly sunny afternoon and evening. Tmax here 21.1c.

The last few days have scored quite well here on my personal and totally unscientific index and a definate improvement on the first 10 days of August. Rating today as a 7/10, thats three 7's and three 8's out of 10 in the last 6 days.

To cap it off a Spitfire gave a low fly past over the seafront today, the 2nd time this week, so assuming it's preparation for The Eastbourne Airshow which begins tomorrow and runs through until Sunday. Fingers crossed the weather plays ball.

[lassie23]

Raining heavy at the moment.

[alexisj9]

Raining light most of the morning, just had a heavy shower embeded in the rain though. No thunder with it.