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SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Not forgetting, of course ...

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Quote

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION for

... N-France and S-UK ...


Latest remote sensing data indicates two ongoing thunderstorm clusters, one affecting SW-UK and a second one lifting from N-Brittany to the ENE. This activity developed ahead of a NE-ward drifting and deamplifying short-wave in the 300-500 hPa layer, which is also confirmed by latest WV data, showing a rather tight moisture gradient approaching the W-English Channel. This wave is forecast to move NE during the following hours towards CNTRL-UK.

Latest surface data places a warm front over far SW-UK, the E-English Channel towards Belgium. With a gradually consolidating and northward drifting surface low (in response to stronger hight falls to its west due to ongoing amplification of an upper-level trough), this front is forecast to lift north at a leisurely pace. Latest VIS loop indicates full sunshine ahead of both clusters with a deepening Cu field over NE-France in respone to moisture pooling along the warm front. Diabatic heating lowered surface dewpoints a bit, which are now around 15 °C and temperatures in the mid twenties over SW-UK and lower thirties over NW-France (ahead of both clusters).
12Z soundings show strong and even strengthening capping over SW-/S-UK, whereas full mixing and a deepening and dry subcloud layer are present over N-France.

Numeric continues to diverge substantially regarding the track of the thunderstorm clusters with one model suite taking the convection more to the north/northeast towards CNTRL-UK (probably in response to the passing short-wave), whereas another suite (with numerous limited area models) brings the activity more to the NE towards the E-English Channel.

As the MCS over NE-Brittany moves E/NE, it will take profit of uncontaminated inflow of warm/moist air and CAPE of 1-2 kJ/kg along the coast. A dry subcloud layer should support strengthening cold pool activity and a forward propagating MCS to the NE is expected. In addition, channeled NE-erly flow over the English Channel creates most intense LL outflow/inflow convergence along its NE/E-side, so a constant motion in this direction is expected. Onshore convection has a chance to root into the BL with a severe wind gust and large hail threat mainly over N/NE-France. A confined swath of severe to isolated damaging wind gusts is possible affecting the CNTRL-/E-English Channel and surrounding areas during the following hours! Towards SE-UK, a cooling BL offshore and a strengthening cap should force convection to become more elevated betimes with an excessive rainfall and large hail risk. However ongoing intense diabatic heating and expected strong NE-erly inflow over far SE-UK may keep this activity near surface based with an ongoing severe wind gust risk from onshore moving convection. During the night, this activity spreads towards Belgium and offshore towards the S-North Sea with a lowering severe risk.

 

 

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Edited by VillagePlank
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

In all honesty, I'd be happy with just torrential rain (T&L I'll call a'bonus'!)...And, thank the Lord for small mercies, it might even be 'normal' for a whole two weeks...Once tomorrow's agonising 31C is out of the way, of course!:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Just now, Ed Stone said:

In all honesty, I'd be happy with just torrential rain (T&L I'll call a'bonus'!)...And, thank the Lord for small mercies, it might even be 'normal' for a whole two weeks...Once tomorrow's agonising 31C is out of the way, of course!:yahoo:

Yes, we're desperate for some good rain, here. Suspect torrential rain will just run off the surface, and we really need about a week of that grotty fine stuff for the garden

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

Bedford's storm shield up, 50p in the meter. Didn't let me down last year.

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Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
16 minutes ago, Dami said:

Bedford's storm shield up, 50p in the meter. Didn't let me down last year.

 

How long do you get for 50p? :diablo:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
14 minutes ago, Bogman said:

 

How long do you get for 50p? :diablo:

A few years at this rate.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

Just riding back from work on the Train and it's pretty uncomfortable. 

Lets see what this evening brings. It's milky cloud with haze at the moment coming out of London. I'm feeling lucky though!

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
2 hours ago, VillagePlank said:

Just saying, I'm just saying ...

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got the north sea written all over them:p

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Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
10 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

got the north sea written all over them:p

To my eyes on the radar it seems to be breaking up as it comes up the channel towards east kent !

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
22 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

To my eyes on the radar it seems to be breaking up as it comes up the channel towards east kent !

No surprise there then lol

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
48 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

To my eyes on the radar it seems to be breaking up as it comes up the channel towards east kent !

You're eyes are good, then. It's forecast to pep up as the system arrives on south coast.

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Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
Just now, VillagePlank said:

You're eyes are good, then. It's forecast to pep up as the system arrives on south coast.

glad to hear that (perhaps I should have gone to specsavers l.o.l )

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

It feels remarkably fresh ATM quite sure the warm front has cleared the south coast by 00z hot humid airmass will be settling in.

Out there currently...

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Another lovely day with lots of sunshine. Same maximum of 26C as yesterday, the only difference is a moderate east/south east breeze.

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk

A lovely day completely spoilt by a strong onshore breeze. Out of the sun it was positively chilly at times, I think the thermometer read a stunning 22.5C at one point....

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

Actually quite cloudy and dark. Wind has dropped. 

nothing on radar.

head hurts more.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Why oh why has raintoday had an error message after a few seconds , it seems to have been an issue for many months now although on the odd occasion it works . Anybody had the same issue ?

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